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Solar power has begun to transform the world’s energy system

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Re: Solar power has begun to transform the world’s energy system

#411

Post by cogman10 »

qiqitori wrote: post #399
cogman10 wrote: post #388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you look at the energy density, cost/kwh, and lifetime maintenance of most of those, you'll find that batteries handily win. Further, batteries have room for innovation and growth in all those categories. We won't, for example, make a more cost-efficient flywheel or heat storage. They are effectively as efficient as they'll ever be. IMO, it necessarily has to be batteries. The other alternatives are nowhere near a…

On the other hand, you need to buy a new set of batteries every 15 or so years. The other things you mentioned generally don't need regular replacement, and when they do, it's not the whole setup.

You don't need to replace the whole setup, just the batteries. All the power electronics and interconnects are already there and will last as long as they last.

You also don't technically need new batteries almost ever. Batteries (typically) don't really die, they just lose capacity. After a 15 year runtime instead of storing 10mWh they now store 7mWh. That's still 7mWh. After another 15 years it'll be down to around 5mWh.

Re: Solar power has begun to transform the world’s energy system

#412

Post by hnaccount_rng »

lnsru wrote: post #312
adrianN wrote: post #276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are old solar panels available at scale? They last for decades.

First 15-20 years old Siemens panels come off the roofs right now in Germany. Still having 2/3 of the rated power generation capability. Absolutely fascinating thing. And since they cost more or less nothing it would make absolutely sense to install them in some lower cost of living area in southern Europe. I can get the panels in Germany, who wants to take over the southern Europe part?

They are also old technology and only about half as efficient as current ones. So even if you restore them to full nameplate capacity for free they are still wasted to put anywhere as long as the installation price is dominated by labor costs. The _only_ scenario in which this might be worth it is if there are no new solar cells available

Re: Solar power has begun to transform the world’s energy system

#413

Post by nmfisher »

audunw wrote: post #125

I would recommend reading or watching what Tony Seba has put out. He has correctly predicted where we ended up with solar, and his predictions for the next stage of the energy transition is very remarkable and uplifting. It seems overly optimistic at first but makes a lot of sense when you look at the trend lines.

Link?

Re: Solar power has begun to transform the world’s energy system

#414

Post by cogman10 »

EvanAnderson wrote: post #401
cogman10 wrote: post #388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you look at the energy density, cost/kwh, and lifetime maintenance of most of those, you'll find that batteries handily win. Further, batteries have room for innovation and growth in all those categories. We won't, for example, make a more cost-efficient flywheel or heat storage. They are effectively as efficient as they'll ever be. IMO, it necessarily has to be batteries. The other alternatives are nowhere near a…

At grid scale I'd imagine that pumped hydroelectric storage would beat batteries for TCO, but there are significant geographic constraints.

I mean, it is a literal pipe dream :)

Batteries can be deployed nearly instantly. My power company is planning on building a new battery plant next year, it announced it the year prior.

I know a pumped hydro plan that has literally been in the works for the last 20 years and shows no sign of actually being started (still being planned).

Re: Solar power has begun to transform the world’s energy system

#415

Post by babymetal »

rpozarickij wrote: post #179

> Solar power is now growing faster than any power source in history, and it is closely followed by wind power—which is really another form of energy from the sun, since it is differential heating of the earth that produces the wind that turns the turbines. It's interesting to realize that the vast majority of the energy used by humans comes from the sun (with the exception of nuclear and geothermal energy). Even hyd…

I clicked to the comments to see how far down this observation would appear. It was my first thought, although I can understand why the more energetic discussion is around human-centered energy collection and management.

Re: Solar power has begun to transform the world’s energy system

#416

Post by marcosdumay »

hnaccount_rng wrote: post #364
energy123 wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's geopolitical implications. Solar is long stability, short conflict. It's easy to cut undersea cables, it's easy for instability arriving to one the landlocked countries in the middle of transit. This creates systemic risks that are asymmetric with respect to offense and defense. Many would see this as an invitation to retreat from solar, but I view it as the opposite. Widespread solar will cause peace via the…

That was the idea behind Germany’s energy dependence on Russia. Let’s call that experiment not successful, shall we?

The Russian government didn't see it as a Russian dependency on Germany.

As far as the dependency direction goes, Germany didn't start a war with Russia, so the simplistic example isn't enough to disprove anything. If you want to disprove it, do so by explaining how Russia was dependent on Europe.

Re: Solar power has begun to transform the world’s energy system

#417

Post by jillesvangurp »

HPsquared wrote: post #180
jillesvangurp wrote: post #175

The article doesn't mention a technology that deserves some attention because it counters the biggest and most obvious deficiency in solar: the sun doesn't always shine. That technology is cables. Cables allow us to move energy over long distances. And with HVCD cables that can mean across continents, oceans, time zones, and climate regions. The nice things about cables is that they are currently being underutilized.…

Any country relying on international cables for electricity would need to build and maintain full local backup power capacity. The combined cost of cables + backup may be more than storage cost. (Of course there are many factors which affect all these costs)

It helps to have stable bi-lateral relationships between countries that choose to connect their grids and economies. This kind of stability is a good thing. The current instability with long relationships being questioned and falling apart is a bad thing. And where you say cost, I say investment. Because energy is a valuable commodity and being able to buy/sell energy via cables has value.

Most renewable energy investments have decent, easy to calculate returns on investment. That's why this stuff is so popular with investors. And that's also why I don't think current policy changes in the US matter long term. It just slightly increases the time to a return on investment. But you still get a return. So, companies will continue to look at batteries, solar, and indeed cables with or without government support. And even a little bit of tariffs (aka. taxes) won't stop that.

Re: Solar power has begun to transform the world’s energy system

#418

Post by hnaccount_rng »

xbmcuser wrote: post #291

China is also now facing an interesting problem as solar + batteries are cheaper than coal today. But coal currently is around 60% of its electricity supply it uses around 10 trillion kwh. So 6 trillion kwh * $0.08c is $600 billion ie it will have to destroy a $5-600 billion industry that employees millions of people. But at the same time it will be getting cheaper energy and the cost of producing energy will keep ge…

That’s only a problem if you care about the stranded investment side. The energy industry isn’t that personel intensive (plus you could just continue to employ the people). But they absolutely will deprecate the power plants and stop buying the coal. The former will bankrupt some of the projects which planned with much longer repayment periods. The latter will immediately safe money

Re: Solar power has begun to transform the world’s energy system

#419

Post by marcosdumay »

davedx wrote: post #278
buckle8017 wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Better grid connections helps with variable weather but it does nothing for solar biggest down side. Seasonal variation from December to May is enormous. Storing months of power is a problem with no known solution.

“No known solution” is categorically false [1]. Economics is the issue 1. Generate hydrogen or other synthetic hydrocarbon fuels from electricity; flow batteries, saltwater batteries, and a myriad other chemistries; compressed air; hydro, etc etc

Just to add: overbuilding and using the excess in low capital-intensive applications.
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