Live data from Hacker News

Everything around LLMs is still magical and wishful thinking

dmitriid.com

361–370 of 377 posts

Re: Everything around LLMs is still magical and wishful thinking

#361

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You understand that according to what you just said, economically the current SOTA is untenable? Which, again, leads to a future where we're stuck with local models corrupting data about half the time.

No, it just means that the big players have to keep advancing SOTA to make money; Llama lagging ~6 months behind just means there's only so much they can charge for access to the bleeding edge. Short-term, it's a normal dynamics for a growing/evolving market. Long-term, the Sun will burn out and consume the Earth.

The cost to improve training increases exponentially for every milestone. No vendor is even coming close to recouping the costs now. Not to mention quality data to feed the training.

The R&D is running on hopes that increasing the magnitude (yes, actual magnitudes) of their models will eventually hit a miracle that makes their company explode in value and power. They can't explain what that could even look like... but they NEED evermore exorbitant amounts of funding flowing in.

This truly isn't a normal ratio of research-to-return.

Luckily, what we do have already is kinda useful and condensing models does show promise. In 5 years I doubt we'll have the post-labor dys/utopia we're being hyped up for. But we may have some truly badass models that can run directly on our phones.

Like you said, Llama and local inference is cheap. So that's the most logical direction all of this is taking us.

Re: Everything around LLMs is still magical and wishful thinking

#362
post #354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Remember, the claim I challenged is that LLMs know culture and can handle talking about them. You need to focus. I know your challenge, that is why I said what I said. Your own screenshot specifically, literally bold-faced, shows that you are wrong: the LLM told you what you said "(they just can't do it _before_ you correct them)". The Gemeni opening paragraph is all bold, but just draw your eyes over the bit sayin…

> If you wanted it to act like a real Egyptologist I don't care about LLMs. I'm pretending to be a gullable customer, not being myself. Companies and individuals are buying LLMs expecting them to be real developers, and real writers, and real risk analysts... but they'll get average dumb-as-they-come internet commenter. It's fraud. It doesn't matter if you explain to me the obvious thing that I already know (they suc…

Ahem, you previously:

  Remember, the claim I challenged is that LLMs know culture and can handle talking about them. You need to focus.
Anyway:

> The marketing is telling everyone that they're amazing PhD level geniuses. I just demonstrated that they resemble more an average internet idiot than a specialist.

First, you didn't. Average internet idiot doesn't know jack about either Western New Age ancient aliens culture or actual ancient Egypt, let alone being able to write an essay on both.

Second:

You seem to be wildly overestimating what "PhD-level" implies.

Academics do a lot of post-docs before they can turn a doctorate into a professorship.

The SOTA models are what PhD level looks like: freshly minted from university without much experience.

Rather than what you suggest, the academic response to "PhD level" is not to be impressed by marketing then disapointed with results, because an academic saying "wow, a whole PhD!" would be sarcasm in many cases: a PhD just step 1 of that career path.

Similarly, medical doctors have not been impressed just by LLMs passing the medical exam, and lawyers not impressed by passing the Bar exam. Because that's the entry requirement for the career.

Funnily enough, three letters after the name does not make someone infallible, it's the start of a long, long journey.

Academia, medics, lawyers, coders, hearing about PhD level means we're expecting juniors and getting them too.

Re: Everything around LLMs is still magical and wishful thinking

#363
post #362

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you wanted it to act like a real Egyptologist I don't care about LLMs. I'm pretending to be a gullable customer, not being myself. Companies and individuals are buying LLMs expecting them to be real developers, and real writers, and real risk analysts... but they'll get average dumb-as-they-come internet commenter. It's fraud. It doesn't matter if you explain to me the obvious thing that I already know (they suc…

Ahem, you previously: Remember, the claim I challenged is that LLMs know culture and can handle talking about them. You need to focus. Anyway: > The marketing is telling everyone that they're amazing PhD level geniuses. I just demonstrated that they resemble more an average internet idiot than a specialist. First, you didn't. Average internet idiot doesn't know jack about either Western New Age ancient aliens culture…

I stand by my claim.

I pretended to be less knowledgeable than I currently am about the egyptologists vs. ancient aliens public debate. Then I reported my results, together with the opinion of specialists from trusted sources (what actual egyptologists say).

There is _plenty_ of debate on the internet about this. It is a popular subject, approached by many average internet idiots in many ways. Anyone reading this right now can confirm this by performing a search.

You're trying to blur the lines between what an actual PhD is and what the perceived notion of what a PhD is. This is an error. My original comment regarding PhDs was placed in a marketing context. It is the same as the "9 in 10 specialists recomment Colgate" trick. In that analogy, you're trying to explain to me how dentists get their degree, instead of acknowledging that I was talking about the deceptive marketing campaign.

You also failed to generalize the example outside of the egyptology realm. I can come up with other examples in other areas I consider myself above-average-but-not-actual-researcher. Attempts to demoralize me in those subjects won't make the LLM better, this is not a classical idiot internet debate: you winning doesn't make me lose. On the contrary: your use of diversion and misdirection actually support my case. You need to rely on cheap rethoric tactics to succeed, I don't.

This video came out right after I posted my original challenge, and it explains some of the concepts I'm hopelessly trying to convey to you:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5mco9zAamRk

It is a friendly cartoon-like simplification of how AIs are evaluated. It is actually friendly to AI enthusiasts, I recommend you to watch it and rethink the conversation from its perspective.

Re: Everything around LLMs is still magical and wishful thinking

#364
post #360

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't know where I got that notion. I know! You assume too much. > you constantly calling some opinions and perspectives offensive They _are_ offensive to some people. Your mistake was to assume that I was complaining because I took it personally. It made you go into a spiral about Stargate and all sorts of irrelevant nonsense. I'm trying to help you here. At any time, some argument might be offensive to _your se…

> It made you go into a spiral about Stargate and all sorts of irrelevant nonsense. I'm trying to help you here. Stargate is part of our culture. As part of our culture (ditto ancient aliens etc.), is not at all irrelevant to bring Stargate up in a discussion about culture, especially in a case when someone (you) tries to build their case by getting an AI to discuss aliens and Egyptian deities, and then goes on to cl…

Pop culture is a narrow subset of culture, not interchangeable with mythology.

Stargate is a work of fiction, while ancient aliens presents itself as truth (hiring pseudo-specialists, pretending to be a documentary, etc).

You need to seriously step up your game, stop trying to win arguments with cheap rethorical tricks, and actually pay attention and research things before posting.

Re: Everything around LLMs is still magical and wishful thinking

#365
post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are correct that review and validation should still be manual. But the actual "translation" from one format to another should be automated with llms

You seem to be missing that the translation part isn't the expensive part, it's the validation and review. Separately, maybe this is just me, but having data actually flow through my hands is necessary for full comprehension. Just skimming an automated result, my brain doesn't actually process like half of that data. Making the process more efficient in this way can make my actual review performance *much worse.* The…

The translation might not be expensive, but its soulcrushingly robotic.

My interest in LLMs isnt to increase shareholder value, its to make lofe easier for people. I think itd be a huge net benefit to society if people were freed up from robotic work like typing out lines from scanned pdfs to excel sheets, so they can do more fulfilling work

Re: Everything around LLMs is still magical and wishful thinking

#366

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Even the LLMs themselves acknowledge that this is regarded as offensive. If you correct it, it will apologize (they just can't do it _before_ you correct them). Nah, that's just LLMs being trained to acquiesce to the insanity of the last ~15 years, as many people seem to expect that claiming you're offended by something is an ultimate argument that everyone must yield to (and they'll keep making a fuss out of it un…

An LLM that offends people and entire nations is what many would classify as _misaligned_. Let's say I have a company, and my company needs to comply to government policy regarding communication. I cannot trust LLMs then, they will either fail to follow policy, or acquiesce to any group that tries to game it. It's useless garbage. Egyptian myths were just an example, you don't need to bite it so hard.

> An LLM that offends people and entire nations is what many would classify as _misaligned_.

This highlights a major aspect of the core challenge of alignment: you can't have it both ways.

> Let's say I have a company, and my company needs to comply to government policy regarding communication. I cannot trust LLMs then, they will either fail to follow policy, or acquiesce to any group that tries to game it.

This works for now, when you treat "alignment" as synonymous to "follows policy of the owner" (but then guess who you are not, unless you've trained your own model, or tuned an open-weights one). But this breaks down the more you want the model to be smarter/more powerful, and the larger and more diverse its user-base it is. If you want an LLM to write marketing communications for your company, strict policies are fine. But if you want an LLM - or a future more advanced kind of model - to be useful as a scholar/partner for academia in general, then this stops working.

If you want AI that is has maximally accurate perspective on the world given available evidence, thinks rationally, and follows sound ethical principles, then be prepared for it to call you on your bullshit. The only way to have an AI that doesn't say things that are "offensive" to you or anyone else, is to have it entertain everyone's asinine beliefs, whether personal or political or social. That means either 1) train AI to believe in them too, which will break its capability to reason (given that all those precious beliefs are inconsistent with each other, and observable reality), or 2) train it to casually lie to people for instrumental reasons.

Long-term, option 1) will not get us to AGI, but that's still much better than option 2): an AGI that's good at telling everyone exactly what they want to hear. But even in immediate-term, taking your use case of AI for academia, a model that follows policies of acceptable thoughts over reason is precisely the one you cannot trust - you'll never be sure whether it's reasoning correctly, or being stupid because of a policy/reality conflict, or flat out lying to you so you don't get offended.

Re: Everything around LLMs is still magical and wishful thinking

#367
post #360

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It made you go into a spiral about Stargate and all sorts of irrelevant nonsense. I'm trying to help you here. Stargate is part of our culture. As part of our culture (ditto ancient aliens etc.), is not at all irrelevant to bring Stargate up in a discussion about culture, especially in a case when someone (you) tries to build their case by getting an AI to discuss aliens and Egyptian deities, and then goes on to cl…

Pop culture is a narrow subset of culture, not interchangeable with mythology. Stargate is a work of fiction, while ancient aliens presents itself as truth (hiring pseudo-specialists, pretending to be a documentary, etc). You need to seriously step up your game, stop trying to win arguments with cheap rethorical tricks, and actually pay attention and research things before posting.

Stargate is a specific franchise that riffs off "ancient aliens" idea. "Ancient aliens" by itself is a meme complex (in both senses of the term), not a specific thing. Pseudo-specialists selling books and producing documentaries are just another group of people taking a spin on those ideas, except they're making money by screwing with people's sanity instead of providing entertainment.

See also: just about anything - from basic chemistry to UFOs to quantum physics. There's plenty of crackpots selling books on those topics too, but they don't own the conceptual space around these ideas. I can have a heated debate about merits of "GIMBAL" video or the "microtubules" in the brain, without assuming the other party is a crackpot or being offended by the ideas I consider plain wrong.

Also, I'd think this through a bit more:

> Pop culture is a narrow subset of culture, not interchangeable with mythology.

Yes, it's not interchangeable. Pop culture is more important.

Culture is a living thing, not a static artifact. Today, Lord of the Rings and Harry Potter are even more influential on the evolution of culture and society than classical literature. Saying this out loud only seems weird and iconoclastic (fancy word for "offensive"? :)) to most, because the works of Tolkien and Rowling are contemporary, and thus mundane. But consider that, back when the foundations of Enlightenment and Western cultures were being established, the classics were contemporary works as well! 200 years from now[0], Rowling will be to people what Shakespeare is to us today.

--

[0] - Not really, unless the exponential progress of technology stops ~today.

Re: Everything around LLMs is still magical and wishful thinking

#368

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pop culture is a narrow subset of culture, not interchangeable with mythology. Stargate is a work of fiction, while ancient aliens presents itself as truth (hiring pseudo-specialists, pretending to be a documentary, etc). You need to seriously step up your game, stop trying to win arguments with cheap rethorical tricks, and actually pay attention and research things before posting.

Stargate is a specific franchise that riffs off "ancient aliens" idea. "Ancient aliens" by itself is a meme complex (in both senses of the term), not a specific thing. Pseudo-specialists selling books and producing documentaries are just another group of people taking a spin on those ideas, except they're making money by screwing with people's sanity instead of providing entertainment. See also: just about anything -…

Stargate fictionalizes Von Daniken. It moves his narrative from pseudoscience to fiction. It works like domestication.

Culture is living, myths are the part that already crystallized.

I don't care which one is more important, it's not a judgement of value.

It's offensive to the egyptian culture to imply that aliens built their monuments. That is an idea those people live by. Culture, has conflict. Academia is on their side (and so many others), and it's authoritative in that sense.

Also, _it's not about you_, stop taking it personally. I don't care about how much you know, you need to demonstrate that LLMs can understand this kind of nuance, or did you forget the goal of the discussion?

Re: Everything around LLMs is still magical and wishful thinking

#369

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An LLM that offends people and entire nations is what many would classify as _misaligned_. Let's say I have a company, and my company needs to comply to government policy regarding communication. I cannot trust LLMs then, they will either fail to follow policy, or acquiesce to any group that tries to game it. It's useless garbage. Egyptian myths were just an example, you don't need to bite it so hard.

> An LLM that offends people and entire nations is what many would classify as _misaligned_. This highlights a major aspect of the core challenge of alignment: you can't have it both ways. > Let's say I have a company, and my company needs to comply to government policy regarding communication. I cannot trust LLMs then, they will either fail to follow policy, or acquiesce to any group that tries to game it. This work…

> follows policy of the owner

The owner is us, humans. I want it to follow reasonable, kind humans. I don't want it to follow scam artists, charlatans, assassins.

> be prepared for it to call you on your bullshit

Right now, I am calling on their bullshit. When that changes, I'll be honest about it.

Re: Everything around LLMs is still magical and wishful thinking

#370
post #354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Remember, the claim I challenged is that LLMs know culture and can handle talking about them. You need to focus. I know your challenge, that is why I said what I said. Your own screenshot specifically, literally bold-faced, shows that you are wrong: the LLM told you what you said "(they just can't do it _before_ you correct them)". The Gemeni opening paragraph is all bold, but just draw your eyes over the bit sayin…

> If you wanted it to act like a real Egyptologist I don't care about LLMs. I'm pretending to be a gullable customer, not being myself. Companies and individuals are buying LLMs expecting them to be real developers, and real writers, and real risk analysts... but they'll get average dumb-as-they-come internet commenter. It's fraud. It doesn't matter if you explain to me the obvious thing that I already know (they suc…

'ben_w addressed other points, but it would be amiss not to comment on this too:

> The marketing is telling everyone that they're amazing PhD level geniuses.

No it is not. LLM vendors are, and have always been, open about the limits of the models, and I'm yet to see a major provider claiming their models are geniuses, PhD-level or otherwise. Nothing of the sort is happening - on the contrary, the vendors are avoiding making such claims or positioning their offerings this way.

No, this perspective doesn't come from LLM marketing. It comes from people who ignore both the official information from the vendors and the experience of LLM users, who are oblivious to what's common knowledge and instead let their imagination run wild, perhaps fueled by bullshit they heard from other clueless people, or more likely, from third parties on the Internet that say all kinds of outlandish things to get more eyes looking at the ads they run.

> Companies and individuals are buying LLMs expecting them to be real developers, and real writers, and real risk analysts... but they'll get average dumb-as-they-come internet commenter.

Curiously, this is wrong in two opposite directions at once.

Yes, many companies and individuals have overinflated expectations, but that's frankly because they're idiots. There's no first-party fraud going on here; if you get fooled by hype from some random LinkedIn "thought leaders", that's on you; sue them for making a fool of you, and don't make yourself a bigger one by blaming LLM vendors for your own poor information diet. At the same time, LLMs actually are at the level of real developers, real writers and real risk analysts; downplaying capabilities of current LLMs doesn't make you less wrong than overestimating them.

Post reply on HN