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As AGI will need a lot of GPU, which Nvidia lead in.
And a country with experience of ensuring they get the raw materials they need, even if they have to do a regime change by force.
By and large, the countries that are run by a single, centralized intelligence, are worse off than the countries that are run by the distributed intelligence of the people, even if the average intelligence is lower.
My prediction is that the liberal democracies will fare better.
my guess would be that it would make rich countries even richer, and poor countries even poorer
Collective and Swarm Superintelligence isn't a new thing at all. We call them companies, governments, organizations and churches. They just (mostly) run on meat and memes.
The only recent change is that a lot of them are dangerously powerful and paperclip optimized to produce "shareholder value".
I know "capitalism is a runaway swarm superintelligence" isn't the scifi future you want, but what criteria is it missing? The curve isn't the exponential kurzweil dreamed of, but that has only ever been a marketing pitch, all growth curves are punctuated sigmoids.
As to who does well? Who has aligned the optimization criteria for thier Super-AGI with their actual well-being? Who hasn't?
USA, by virtue of having the leading GPU company and military. As AGI will need a lot of GPU, which Nvidia lead in. And a country with experience of ensuring they get the raw materials they need, even if they have to do a regime change by force.
As it stands, I have a hunch that the people at the top of governments tend to be among the more highly intelligent. I'll even give that to our leaders, but also to the leader of Iran, etc. If nothing else, the intelligence required to reach that level and stay there without getting killed or purged is impressive. By and large, the countries that are run by a single, centralized intelligence, are worse off than the c…
USA, by virtue of having the leading GPU company and military. As AGI will need a lot of GPU, which Nvidia lead in. And a country with experience of ensuring they get the raw materials they need, even if they have to do a regime change by force.
And AGI automates the US competitive advantage (white collar work). Plus we're gutting our universities and national science funding so we're losing that anyways.
I think it's extraordinarily unlikely that some technique can reach AGI but not reach ASI. It won't have the same limits to modification as human brains. Why would it stop at a level that's just slightly disruptive? If you can make an AGI you can make a better AGI, with no obvious limit. And that AGI can help further improvements, leading to the singularity intelligence explosion scenario. Assuming AI researchers continue with the same attitude toward safety as usual, and I see no evidence of this changing, the most likely result is the extinction of all biological life.
USA, by virtue of having the leading GPU company and military. As AGI will need a lot of GPU, which Nvidia lead in. And a country with experience of ensuring they get the raw materials they need, even if they have to do a regime change by force.
As it stands, I have a hunch that the people at the top of governments tend to be among the more highly intelligent. I'll even give that to our leaders, but also to the leader of Iran, etc. If nothing else, the intelligence required to reach that level and stay there without getting killed or purged is impressive. By and large, the countries that are run by a single, centralized intelligence, are worse off than the c…