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Private sector lost 33k jobs, badly missing expectations of 100k increase
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Re: Private sector lost 33k jobs, badly missing expectations of 100k increase
#12We really need better ways of measuring economic health. I could lose my six-figure job, turn around, and get hired on as a server at Applebee's for minimum wage, and the "unemployment" rate would stay the same. Not to mention that it doesn't include those not actively looking for work. Either way, "full employment" doesn't mean much unless you take into account whether people are actually able to live a stable lifes…
We have good metrics. The problem is the media seems to only ever look at one of them at a time but we need to look at several at once to get a more complete picture.
Your scenario would be called out by median household income, or better median disposable household income. Even the good old GDP per capita covers your case.
Workforce participation also can be valuable instead of or in addition to unemployment numbers, since you fall out of the count once unemployment benefits expire. However, we need to look at it by age bracket. Lower workforce participation between 20 and 60 is probably bad whereas higher workforce participation over 60 might also be bad.
IMO the problem isn't that the metrics aren't there but that the public discourse either lacks motivation, understanding or incentive to take a proper look. That every discussion of these numbers on social media has a substantial portion of people not understand the difference between median and mean certainly doesn't give me confidence this will ever improve.
Re: Private sector lost 33k jobs, badly missing expectations of 100k increase
#13We really need better ways of measuring economic health. I could lose my six-figure job, turn around, and get hired on as a server at Applebee's for minimum wage, and the "unemployment" rate would stay the same. Not to mention that it doesn't include those not actively looking for work. Either way, "full employment" doesn't mean much unless you take into account whether people are actually able to live a stable lifes…
You of course know that we have a diverse set of metrics for unemployment that capture all of what you are talking about right? And that is before we talk about alternative signals like the ADP number this like references. Anytime someone says “we need better ways” you should just read it as “I should do more reading”, because this is a very well studied, understood and measured set of data.
Which metric(s) capture what he is talking about?
Re: Private sector lost 33k jobs, badly missing expectations of 100k increase
#14Important: "[payroll processing firm] ADP's report has a spotty track record on predicting the subsequent government jobs report"
Government job reports this year have been revised down up to 35%.
> The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for March was revised down by 65,000, from +185,000 to +120,000, and the change for April was revised down by 30,000, from +177,000 to +147,000. With these revisions, employment in March and April combined is 95,000 lower than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)
Re: Private sector lost 33k jobs, badly missing expectations of 100k increase
#15We really need better ways of measuring economic health. I could lose my six-figure job, turn around, and get hired on as a server at Applebee's for minimum wage, and the "unemployment" rate would stay the same. Not to mention that it doesn't include those not actively looking for work. Either way, "full employment" doesn't mean much unless you take into account whether people are actually able to live a stable lifes…
You of course know that we have a diverse set of metrics for unemployment that capture all of what you are talking about right? And that is before we talk about alternative signals like the ADP number this like references. Anytime someone says “we need better ways” you should just read it as “I should do more reading”, because this is a very well studied, understood and measured set of data.
Yes, it's extremely irritating every time people trot out the same copy-pasted complaints about the BLS unemployment rate and how wrong it is, ignoring the fact that the BLS publishes six different unemployment rates, which specifically address most of those complaints. It's a sign of terminal incuriosity and using only superficial and secondhand sources of information like news reports on the unemployment rate, and thinking this is enough to make you qualified to do critique.
Re: Private sector lost 33k jobs, badly missing expectations of 100k increase
#16We really need better ways of measuring economic health. I could lose my six-figure job, turn around, and get hired on as a server at Applebee's for minimum wage, and the "unemployment" rate would stay the same. Not to mention that it doesn't include those not actively looking for work. Either way, "full employment" doesn't mean much unless you take into account whether people are actually able to live a stable lifes…
We have good metrics. The problem is the media seems to only ever look at one of them at a time but we need to look at several at once to get a more complete picture. Your scenario would be called out by median household income, or better median disposable household income. Even the good old GDP per capita covers your case. Workforce participation also can be valuable instead of or in addition to unemployment numbers…
> The problem is the media seems to only ever look at one of them at a time but we need to look at several at once to get a more complete picture.
This is what I'm getting at. I recognize there are more detailed measures, but they also never seem to inform the public discourse.
Re: Private sector lost 33k jobs, badly missing expectations of 100k increase
#17Earlier quoted context omitted.
What in the bad-URL-looks-like-phishing-but-appears-legit heck is this?
Content management system guid I presume, versus a title slug that can drift during editing and publishing. Archive.today link added for the cautious.
Yeah, but WTF is bluematrix.com? If I see a bank name as a subdomain of a domain I don't recognize, alarm bells go off.
Re: Private sector lost 33k jobs, badly missing expectations of 100k increase
#18We really need better ways of measuring economic health. I could lose my six-figure job, turn around, and get hired on as a server at Applebee's for minimum wage, and the "unemployment" rate would stay the same. Not to mention that it doesn't include those not actively looking for work. Either way, "full employment" doesn't mean much unless you take into account whether people are actually able to live a stable lifes…
> and the "unemployment" rate would stay the same
Of course it would, the percentage of people unemployed would be the same.
> six-figure job, turn around, and get hired on as a server at Applebee's for minimum wage
Average wages section of the jobs report would reflect this change.
> doesn't include those not actively looking for work
Participation rate section of the jobs report.
> Either way ...
Savings rate, hours worked, consumer credit, default rates etc cover all of this.
Re: Private sector lost 33k jobs, badly missing expectations of 100k increase
#19We really need better ways of measuring economic health. I could lose my six-figure job, turn around, and get hired on as a server at Applebee's for minimum wage, and the "unemployment" rate would stay the same. Not to mention that it doesn't include those not actively looking for work. Either way, "full employment" doesn't mean much unless you take into account whether people are actually able to live a stable lifes…
You of course know that we have a diverse set of metrics for unemployment that capture all of what you are talking about right? And that is before we talk about alternative signals like the ADP number this like references. Anytime someone says “we need better ways” you should just read it as “I should do more reading”, because this is a very well studied, understood and measured set of data.
This response is a bit less than helpful. Could you provide an example of a metric from this diverse set that fits what the OP is asking for? I feel like there are at least two use cases from their post:
* a metric that measures if people's jobs are paying enough to put food on the table
* a metric that measures whether people's employment matches their education?
Re: Private sector lost 33k jobs, badly missing expectations of 100k increase
#20We really need better ways of measuring economic health. I could lose my six-figure job, turn around, and get hired on as a server at Applebee's for minimum wage, and the "unemployment" rate would stay the same. Not to mention that it doesn't include those not actively looking for work. Either way, "full employment" doesn't mean much unless you take into account whether people are actually able to live a stable lifes…
You seem to want better reporting of economic news. I would say to vote on it with your pocket and pick a better selection of news sources, but I'm not sure those better sources still exist.
Either way, nearly nobody uses the numbers you see on the headlines for any serious decision.