Private sector lost 33k jobs, badly missing expectations of 100k increase
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Re: Private sector lost 33k jobs, badly missing expectations of 100k increase
#2Re: Private sector lost 33k jobs, badly missing expectations of 100k increase
#3https://wellsfargo.bluematrix.com/docs/html/c42ca8a8-178f-40... | https://archive.today/BhC0n
What in the bad-URL-looks-like-phishing-but-appears-legit heck is this?
Re: Private sector lost 33k jobs, badly missing expectations of 100k increase
#4https://wellsfargo.bluematrix.com/docs/html/c42ca8a8-178f-40... | https://archive.today/BhC0n
What in the bad-URL-looks-like-phishing-but-appears-legit heck is this?
Content management system guid I presume, versus a title slug that can drift during editing and publishing. Archive.today link added for the cautious.
Re: Private sector lost 33k jobs, badly missing expectations of 100k increase
#5Important: "[payroll processing firm] ADP's report has a spotty track record on predicting the subsequent government jobs report"
Re: Private sector lost 33k jobs, badly missing expectations of 100k increase
#6We really need better ways of measuring economic health. I could lose my six-figure job, turn around, and get hired on as a server at Applebee's for minimum wage, and the "unemployment" rate would stay the same. Not to mention that it doesn't include those not actively looking for work.
Either way, "full employment" doesn't mean much unless you take into account whether people are actually able to live a stable lifestyle or are burning the candle at both ends just to put food on the table. One of these enables folks to buy nonessentials and fund all those sectors of the economy, the other doesn't.
Re: Private sector lost 33k jobs, badly missing expectations of 100k increase
#7We really need better ways of measuring economic health. I could lose my six-figure job, turn around, and get hired on as a server at Applebee's for minimum wage, and the "unemployment" rate would stay the same. Not to mention that it doesn't include those not actively looking for work. Either way, "full employment" doesn't mean much unless you take into account whether people are actually able to live a stable lifes…
That's why unemployment is one of many metrics, and we don't put all our weight into a single metric...
Re: Private sector lost 33k jobs, badly missing expectations of 100k increase
#8We really need better ways of measuring economic health. I could lose my six-figure job, turn around, and get hired on as a server at Applebee's for minimum wage, and the "unemployment" rate would stay the same. Not to mention that it doesn't include those not actively looking for work. Either way, "full employment" doesn't mean much unless you take into account whether people are actually able to live a stable lifes…
This has been a critique of the figures for decades, but the current numbers are too convenient for the powers-that-be to change into something more reflective of reality. Trust me, spending fifteen months unemployed in the middle of nowhere and with access to raw data helped me understand a lot about the deliberately engineered shortcomings of our current datasets.
It’s in the vested interest of leaders to control the narrative. That’s why we have/had so many regulations that prevent them from doing so.
Re: Private sector lost 33k jobs, badly missing expectations of 100k increase
#9We really need better ways of measuring economic health. I could lose my six-figure job, turn around, and get hired on as a server at Applebee's for minimum wage, and the "unemployment" rate would stay the same. Not to mention that it doesn't include those not actively looking for work. Either way, "full employment" doesn't mean much unless you take into account whether people are actually able to live a stable lifes…
The linked article is talking about ADP.
"To be sure, the ADP report has a spotty track record on predicting the subsequent government jobs report, which investors tend to weigh more heavily."
The BLS does do several measures.
https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-une...
Their (BLS) news release also provides more detail.
Re: Private sector lost 33k jobs, badly missing expectations of 100k increase
#10We really need better ways of measuring economic health. I could lose my six-figure job, turn around, and get hired on as a server at Applebee's for minimum wage, and the "unemployment" rate would stay the same. Not to mention that it doesn't include those not actively looking for work. Either way, "full employment" doesn't mean much unless you take into account whether people are actually able to live a stable lifes…
You of course know that we have a diverse set of metrics for unemployment that capture all of what you are talking about right?
And that is before we talk about alternative signals like the ADP number this like references.
Anytime someone says “we need better ways” you should just read it as “I should do more reading”, because this is a very well studied, understood and measured set of data.