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Show HN: TrendFi – I built AI trading signals that self-optimize

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Re: Show HN: TrendFi – I built AI trading signals that self-optimize

#41

Post by fasthands9 »

wolfman1 wrote: post #11
bko wrote: post #8

I'm very skeptical of systems that claim to help with trading signals. Primarily because if you had a system, then you would use it yourself. Trading is pretty much a zero sum game especially when it comes to signals. If you had a profitable signal and you publicized it, it would disappear almost immediately. If your performance is correct and you're getting 200% per year, why sell the sauce for $20 a month? I would…

This is typically true for day trading signal services. I'm very skeptical of them too. I've tried many of them and none worked for me. There are a lot of scams. The best model I tried was from The Technical Traders. They offer a trend based model for SPX/QQQ and they consistently outperform buy and hold for 10+ years now. We were inspired by their service and wanted to take a modern spin on trend based models with a…

Even then you have to be careful.

It would be trivially easy to build an algo that beats the market 90% of years but 10% has huge losses. Just construct a slightly levered portfolio, with some protection against minor losses, but totally exposed to big losses.

If you sold that, it would appear like its working for awhile and you'd probably have lots of trusted customers by the time it fails.

(I'm a bit cynical, I worked in finance briefly, and I realized the fund we were selling to investors was essentially this)

Re: Show HN: TrendFi – I built AI trading signals that self-optimize

#42

Post by HenryBemis »

gaadd33 wrote: post #22
runako wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

200%/yr starting from $10,000 => still needs a day job for a number of years. This is why Wall Street is able to hire talented young traders, some of whom will develop profitable systems. Over time, some of them are able to amass enough savings and the track record necessary to get investors. But at t=0, somebody has to pay the rent.

If you can reliably generate 200% a year after fees/taxes/etc, you could just get a bunch of credit cards and use broker margin on top of that. It wouldn't surprise me if you could easily start with 200k at that point. Sure the first year would be rough, like grad student living but you would quickly be in the six figures.

Yes, _but_ (and that is a huge but), I remember some summers ago Erdogan was giving a speech in a village and instead of saying "we have faith in the markets" he said "we have faith in Allah" (not judging, just observing)(it was a time that Turkish Lira was doing very bad, inflation was ruining the country, Erdogan hired his son-in-law to be central banker (or something like that) and that very day Euro took a big dive because of the exposure of Turkish debt, etc etc. Trump (again, not judging, just observing) said "tariffs all around" and markets and currencies crashed a couple of months ago, then recovered, then dropped again, etc.

So, "big bets", especially wig margin, require small movements (or small bets with big movements). And getting in debt is never a good idea, because a tweet by Jerom, Kristine, Vladimir, Xi, Putin, Macron, can send you packing and with an extra $200k debt at 20% interest rate, from which th average person will never recover.

Re: Show HN: TrendFi – I built AI trading signals that self-optimize

#43

Post by malshe »

waynenilsen wrote: post #26
downrightmike wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Serious question: What good are reported trades delayed by months?

The S&P 500 historically returns about 10% annually with a Sharpe ratio around 0.5-0.6. This fund's metrics show it outperforming on both absolute and risk-adjusted bases. The 36.35% CAGR is excellent. Now, imagine if you could trade on the information when they do.

I checked this fund's performance going to the first link you shared. In the last about 3 years it underperformed S&P 500 by 2.5%

Re: Show HN: TrendFi – I built AI trading signals that self-optimize

#44

Post by wolfman1 »

ImPostingOnHN wrote: post #32
wolfman1 wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're the real deal means they're not a scam. I don't know everything about their business. I recommend just looking at their website. They've been in business for nearly 20y and have consistently outperformed buy & hold.

> they're not a scam. Nobody explicitly said it was a scam, just that the claims are questionable and unverified. There's certainly no shortage of people on the internet who claim to have a get-rich-quicker-than-average scheme with claims exactly along these lines. Obviously those claims should be verified. > I recommend just looking at their website. A random website can't be trusted as an unbiased source about itse…

There must have been a misunderstanding.

They've been around since 2008 and appear to have beaten SPX yearly since then.

I'm sure he has thousands of people that will vouch for him. Ask around on Reddit, etc. if you're curious.

Re: Show HN: TrendFi – I built AI trading signals that self-optimize

#45

Post by sheepscreek »

wolfman1 wrote: post #39
dataviz1000 wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I set out on a journey to learn quantitative trading based on signals. The first thing I did was study linear algebra, calculus, statistics, probability, and deep learning. Four months in, I’m on chapter 11 of a deep-learning time-series forecasting book, working through the problems when the author mentions that, to date (it has changed since), there hasn’t been a published paper proving deep learning works better t…

Anything that is related to HFT or day trading is almost impossible in my experience as well. The big funds can do it but I dont think retail has a chance with these approaches. Have you researched trend or stage analysis? They're slower strategies and dont offer the get rich quick hype, but they do have far better success when done well.

Yeah, I think all arbitrage setups of any kind are already being exploited by those with a hard to replicate edge (nano second execution/latency, very very deep pockets - typically your large market makers like Citadel). Just think about it: Jim Simons (RIP) had been doing it for longer than most of us have been alive.

Pretty soon AI won’t be optional, it’ll be the only way to run a profitable quant shop.

Re: Show HN: TrendFi – I built AI trading signals that self-optimize

#46

Post by wolfman1 »

sheepscreek wrote: post #45
wolfman1 wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anything that is related to HFT or day trading is almost impossible in my experience as well. The big funds can do it but I dont think retail has a chance with these approaches. Have you researched trend or stage analysis? They're slower strategies and dont offer the get rich quick hype, but they do have far better success when done well.

Yeah, I think all arbitrage setups of any kind are already being exploited by those with a hard to replicate edge (nano second execution/latency, very very deep pockets - typically your large market makers like Citadel). Just think about it: Jim Simons (RIP) had been doing it for longer than most of us have been alive. Pretty soon AI won’t be optional, it’ll be the only way to run a profitable quant shop.

Agreed

Re: Show HN: TrendFi – I built AI trading signals that self-optimize

#47

Post by waynenilsen »

malshe wrote: post #43
waynenilsen wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The S&P 500 historically returns about 10% annually with a Sharpe ratio around 0.5-0.6. This fund's metrics show it outperforming on both absolute and risk-adjusted bases. The 36.35% CAGR is excellent. Now, imagine if you could trade on the information when they do.

I checked this fund's performance going to the first link you shared. In the last about 3 years it underperformed S&P 500 by 2.5%

I think you're looking at the wrong strategy. The first link is quantbase which has their own strategies which are not good. Quiver creates strategies you can subscribe to which have excellent performance

Re: Show HN: TrendFi – I built AI trading signals that self-optimize

#48

Post by ImPostingOnHN »

wolfman1 wrote: post #44
ImPostingOnHN wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> they're not a scam. Nobody explicitly said it was a scam, just that the claims are questionable and unverified. There's certainly no shortage of people on the internet who claim to have a get-rich-quicker-than-average scheme with claims exactly along these lines. Obviously those claims should be verified. > I recommend just looking at their website. A random website can't be trusted as an unbiased source about itse…

There must have been a misunderstanding. They've been around since 2008 and appear to have beaten SPX yearly since then. I'm sure he has thousands of people that will vouch for him. Ask around on Reddit, etc. if you're curious.

> They've been around since 2008 and appear to have beaten SPX yearly since then

=====> Where did you learn that? ====> How do you know it is true? I appreciate that you built a cool thing, and appreciate even more that you're sharing it (even if you're selling too, I respect hustle).

That said, struggling with the concept of hypothesis/claims testing isn't a reassuring look for someone selling an investment product.

Re: Show HN: TrendFi – I built AI trading signals that self-optimize

#49

Post by [deleted] »

wolfman1 wrote: post #39
dataviz1000 wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I set out on a journey to learn quantitative trading based on signals. The first thing I did was study linear algebra, calculus, statistics, probability, and deep learning. Four months in, I’m on chapter 11 of a deep-learning time-series forecasting book, working through the problems when the author mentions that, to date (it has changed since), there hasn’t been a published paper proving deep learning works better t…

Anything that is related to HFT or day trading is almost impossible in my experience as well. The big funds can do it but I dont think retail has a chance with these approaches. Have you researched trend or stage analysis? They're slower strategies and dont offer the get rich quick hype, but they do have far better success when done well.

[deleted]

Re: Show HN: TrendFi – I built AI trading signals that self-optimize

#50

Post by wolfman1 »

ImPostingOnHN wrote: post #48
wolfman1 wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There must have been a misunderstanding. They've been around since 2008 and appear to have beaten SPX yearly since then. I'm sure he has thousands of people that will vouch for him. Ask around on Reddit, etc. if you're curious.

> They've been around since 2008 and appear to have beaten SPX yearly since then =====> Where did you learn that? ====> How do you know it is true? I appreciate that you built a cool thing, and appreciate even more that you're sharing it (even if you're selling too, I respect hustle). That said, struggling with the concept of hypothesis/claims testing isn't a reassuring look for someone selling an investment product.

Thanks!

My claim is that The Technical Trades (TTT) was the only service that worked for me. I stand by that. And I have no affiliation with TTT. Beyond that, please contact Chris if you want more detailed proof of their track record.

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