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Nvidia CEO criticizes Anthropic boss over his statements on AI

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Re: Nvidia CEO criticizes Anthropic boss over his statements on AI

#161

Post by tiahura »

bluefirebrand wrote: post #101
MostlyStable wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Real" as opposed to "nominal" in this context means inflation adjusted, which means that wages have been increasing faster than inflation for 30 years. Now, it is true that some components of cost of living, most notably housing, have (especially in particular regions) also increased in cost faster than the general inflation level. But that's not due to some inherent breakdown between productivity and wages. It's du…

> which means that wages have been increasing faster than inflation for 30 years If you look at the graph you posted and carried the slope of the pre-70s trajectory forward, assuming that the 70s-90s slump had not happened, would the graph end in the same place it is currently? No. Not even close > So if you want to have that discussion, that's fine, but it's totally separate from the original discussion about produc…

The average us worker now had to complete with more women entering the workforce and entering more fields and careers. They also had to compete with ever increasing numbers of immigrants and they had to compete with foreign workers.

When you massively increase the supply of labor, you’re going to have downward pressure on wages.

Re: Nvidia CEO criticizes Anthropic boss over his statements on AI

#162

Post by jaredklewis »

zozbot234 wrote: post #47
kbos87 wrote: post #19

Companies like Nvidia and OpenAI base their answers to any questions on economic risk on their own best interests and a pretty short view of history. They are fighting like hell to make sure they are among a small set of winners while waving away the risk or claiming that there's some better future for the majority of people on the other side of all this. To claim that all of the benefit isn't going to naturally accr…

"Massive disruption" of what kind? Current AI abilities make white-collar work more productive and potentially higher-paid, not less.

Salaries are determined by the replacement cost of the employee in question, not their productivity. How does AI increase wages?

Re: Nvidia CEO criticizes Anthropic boss over his statements on AI

#163

Post by bigbadfeline »

jstummbillig wrote: post #95
kbos87 wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would my employer pay me more for using their AI? I am already massively more productive at work using AI. I'm not getting paid more, and I'm not working fewer hours. The road we are headed down is one where all of the economic benefits go straight to the owning class.

Owning what? Your employer (likely) owns little of value in a world of cheap AI software generation. Open Source models are already the thing that you can use to code with, and will obviously get better. We have to believe some really weird stuff for this vision to be coherent, for example a nvidia-everything-world, where they are not only the sole provider of hardware but also control access to all relevant models,…

> Your employer (likely) owns little of value in a world of cheap AI software generation.

That applies to you, not to your employer - in your hands, "cheap AI software generation" is, well... cheap. On the other hand, your employer owns patents, copyrights, distribution channels, politicians and connections - those become more valuable as the coding skills get cheaper. The "owning class" are those who own most of the high value items enumerated above.

Re: Nvidia CEO criticizes Anthropic boss over his statements on AI

#164

Post by jstummbillig »

bigbadfeline wrote: post #163
jstummbillig wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Owning what? Your employer (likely) owns little of value in a world of cheap AI software generation. Open Source models are already the thing that you can use to code with, and will obviously get better. We have to believe some really weird stuff for this vision to be coherent, for example a nvidia-everything-world, where they are not only the sole provider of hardware but also control access to all relevant models,…

> Your employer (likely) owns little of value in a world of cheap AI software generation. That applies to you, not to your employer - in your hands, "cheap AI software generation" is, well... cheap. On the other hand, your employer owns patents, copyrights, distribution channels, politicians and connections - those become more valuable as the coding skills get cheaper. The "owning class" are those who own most of the…

I don't know who you are describing, but it's certainly nothing close to the median employer.

Re: Nvidia CEO criticizes Anthropic boss over his statements on AI

#165

Post by owebmaster »

bluefirebrand wrote: post #127
owebmaster wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How many teams of 10 took a year and USD 5 millions to develop a CRUD that failed? That can be done in one week now

I'm not sure that spending $5 Million to fail every week is actually better than spending $5 million to fail once a year Brings a crazy new meaning to "fail fast" though

if the success rate is the same, that would be actually good

Re: Nvidia CEO criticizes Anthropic boss over his statements on AI

#166

Post by lostmsu »

skeledrew wrote: post #119
falcor84 wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And even then, we could perhaps genetically engineer ourselves to metabolize silicon.

What about metabolizing light and carbon dioxide directly instead?

Does not sell as a narrative.

Re: Nvidia CEO criticizes Anthropic boss over his statements on AI

#167

Post by DaSHacka »

cedws wrote: post #141
orangecat wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The most we can do is inconvenience China in the short term. If scaling holds up enough to make AGI possible in the next 5-10 years, slowing down China by even a few years is extremely valuable.

Nothing says we’re the good guys like “we’ll do whatever it takes to sandbag our competitors.” Of course, we’re the benevolent ones who will only use this tool for wealth and prosperity.

Nothing says intelligent geopolitical strategy like conceding your advantage to foreign adversaries for short-term private gains.

Re: Nvidia CEO criticizes Anthropic boss over his statements on AI

#168

Post by bigbadfeline »

jstummbillig wrote: post #164
bigbadfeline wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Your employer (likely) owns little of value in a world of cheap AI software generation. That applies to you, not to your employer - in your hands, "cheap AI software generation" is, well... cheap. On the other hand, your employer owns patents, copyrights, distribution channels, politicians and connections - those become more valuable as the coding skills get cheaper. The "owning class" are those who own most of the…

I don't know who you are describing, but it's certainly nothing close to the median employer.

The median employer isn't in the software business either, so "cheap coding" has little direct effect on them and it doesn't help the agency-rocking small fish in any way. However, as customers, the median employers are highly dependent upon precisely the type of employer I described, not upon "people with agency".

Re: Nvidia CEO criticizes Anthropic boss over his statements on AI

#169

Post by nradov »

ethbr1 wrote: post #145
MostlyStable wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cool. What worker uprising occurred in the US in 1995? I (and basically every economist) disagree with your interpretation of historical events. https://x.com/LettieriDC/status/1922704140834099370

Sub-6% unemployment: https://www.investopedia.com/historical-us-unemployment-rate... Capital doesn't pay labor unless it has to. Average wages = f(labor productivity, demand for labor, labor supply) The AGI future is that demand for labor crashes.

US unemployment rate is currently 4.2%. There is no prospect of real AGI any time soon.

Re: Nvidia CEO criticizes Anthropic boss over his statements on AI

#170

Post by GiorgioG »

MostlyStable wrote: post #159
bluefirebrand wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Increased productivity is in fact a _requirement_ for wages to go up No it isn't. This is an extremely naive understanding of how any of this works You even say it yourself, with the silly graph you keep posting That graph doesn't show productivity it just shows "real inflation adjusted wages", like you keep harping on about. But in general a person is not increasing their productivity year over year. So why would…

Given that economists almost universally agree with me, I'm going to have to suggest that it is in fact you who don't know know how any of this works. You keep shifting the goal posts, you keep talking about unrelated things, and you keep not addressing the core claims, and you keep not responding to the main refutation of your own original claim. I'm done beating my head against this wall. I hope you have a nice day…

> Given that economists almost universally agree with me

I'm amazed you've found that all economists that can universally agree on anything. Economists don't know how any of this works either. Economics is not a science, and you can find data to support basically an unlimited number of arguments.

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