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The Gentle Singularity

blog.samaltman.com

291–300 of 557 posts

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#291
post #286
post #283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How about we lower taxes and give money back to the people who earned it? If you want to use your money to save dying children on the other side of the world, you are welcome to do that. If other people have more pressing needs for their money they can do that too. It seems people are infinitely compassionate when spending someone else’s money.

I think KFC called that the Double Down, but to each their own. What of the argument against USAID’s rapid disassembly then? Is such an outcome permissible or even desired on account of sparing these funds sooner, aid continuity be damned?

At what speed should it be disassembled? I don't see how dragging things out will help. No matter how slow you go, people who want it to continue are going to say it's too fast. May as well rip the band aid off quickly.

I mean, your plan seems to be:

A. The US should give infinity money to everyone forever and never stop. If anyone ever dies, it's the US's fault for not supporting them enough.

B. If you are going to stop, do it on the schedule of the people who are getting free stuff, and only stop when they decide they don't want free stuff anymore (i.e. never).

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#292

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> able to handle whatever the streets of SF throw at it. Not able to handle what the streets of Los Angeles throw at it, however.

I don't think human drivers would be much better at handling getting torched by mobs.

And yet human drivers keep using the LA streets, including human taxi drivers, while Waymo has paused.

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> able to handle whatever the streets of SF throw at it. Not able to handle what the streets of Los Angeles throw at it, however.

I don't think human drivers would be much better at handling getting torched by mobs.

Maybe if the Waymo deployed an inflatable dummy passenger people would be like "oh there's someone in that car, better not torch it"?

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#294
post #134
post #13

> It’s hard to even imagine today what we will have discovered by 2035; maybe we will go from solving high-energy physics one year to beginning space colonization the next year I heard similar things in my college dorm, amid all the hazy smoke. It’s very difficult to take this stuff seriously. It’s like the initial hype around self driving cars wound up by 1000x. Because we got from 1 to 100 of course we’ll get from…

> It’s like the initial hype around self driving cars Wait... Self driving cars actually happened. Seems like the hype was true, but 5 years later than expected and now people just think it's normal so they feel the hype was overblown.

No, they haven't , at least nowhere near the scope of the hype. The promise in the early 2010s was that in 10-20 years, human driving would be obsolete, that professional drivers would be out of a job, and that all land-based transportation would be overhauled.

None of this is even close to happening. Waymo is impressive tech, for sure, but what they're proving is that this is just not currently solvable as a general problem. The best we can do is to meticulously craft a solution for one constrained use case - driving in SF, driving in LA, etc. And even then, we need to pick certain use cases - it's not like they could use their current tech to start autonomous service in Juneau Alaska. Or even NYC, most likely.

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#295
post #54

Some reasoning tokens on this post: >Intelligence too cheap to meter is well within grasp And also: >cost of intelligence should eventually converge to near the cost of electricity. Which is a meter-worthy resource. So intelligence effect on people's lives is in the order of magnitude of one second of a toaster use each day, in present value. This begs the question: what could you do with a toaster-second say 5 years…

watch the cost of electricity go up because the demand created by data centers. i'm building an off grid solar system right now and it ain't cheap! thinking about a future where consumers are competing with data centers for electricity makes me think it might feel cheap in the future, though.

Datacentre operators want to keep energy costs down and also have capital to make it happen.

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#296

> Already we live with incredible digital intelligence, and after some initial shock, most of us are pretty used to it. Very quickly we go from being amazed that AI can generate a beautifully-written paragraph to wondering when it can generate a beautifully-written novel; It was probably around 7 years ago when I first got interested in machine learning. Back then I followed a crude YouTube tutorial which consisted o…

The "next token prediction" is a distraction. That's not where the interesting part of an AI model happens. If you think of the tokenization near the end as a serializer, something like turning an object model into json, you get a better understanding. The interesting part of a an OOP program is not in the json, but what happens in memory before the json is created. Likewise, the interesting parts of a neural net mod…

>which is in many ways similar to our subconscious thinking

this is just made up.

- we don't have any useful insight on human subconscious thinking. - we don't have any useful insight on the structures that support human subconscious thinking. - the mechanisms that support human cognition that we do know about are radically different from the mechanisms that current models use. For example we know that biological neurons & synapses are structurally diverse, we know that suppression and control signals are used to change the behaviour of the networks , we know that chemical control layers (hormones) transform the state of the system.

We also know that biological neural systems continuously learn and adapt, for example in the face of injury. Large models just don't do these things.

Also this thing about deeper and deeper realities? C'mon, it's surface level association all the way down!

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The primary operating cost of traditional power plants is fuel, i.e. coal and natural gas. The fuel cost for nuclear power plants is negligible because the energy content is higher by more than a factor of a million. So if you build enough nuclear plants to power the grid, charging per kWh for the electricity is pointless because the marginal cost of the fuel is so low. Meanwhile the construction cost should be on pa…

> Unsurprisingly, this scared the crap out of the fossil fuel industry in the US and countries like Russia that are net exporters of fossil fuels, so they've spent decades lobbying to bind nuclear plant construction up in red tape to prevent them being built and funding anti-nuclear propaganda. This is frankly nonsense, and my hope is that this nonsense is coming from a person too young to remember the real, valid fe…

The fears from 3 Mile Island and Fukushima were almost completely irrational. The death toll from those was too low to measure.

And the fears from Chernobyl was MOSTLY irrational.

The reason for the extreme fears that are generated from even very moderate spills from nuclear plants comes in part from the association with nuclear bombs and in part from fear of the unknown.

A lot (if not most) people shut their rational thinking off when the word "nuclear" is used, even those who SHOULD understand that a lot more people die from coal and gas plants EVERY YEAR than have died from nuclear energy throughout history.

Indeed, the safety level at Chernobyl may have been atrocious. But so was the coal industry in the USSR. Indeed, even if just considering the USSR, the death toll from coal alone caused a similar number of deaths (or a bit more) than the deaths caused by Chernobyl EVERY YEAR [1].

[1] https://www.science.org/doi/pdf/10.1126/science.238.4823.11....

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>and the current trajectory of how LLMs are used on average in the real world unfortunately run counter to that. This post doesn't offer any forecasts on the hallucination issues of LLMs. You are getting confused here... LLMs are terrible at doing software engineering jobs. They fall on their face trying to work in sprawling codebases. However, they are excellent at writing small bespoke programs on behalf of regular…

>. They fall on their face trying to work in sprawling codebases. >However, they are excellent at writing small bespoke programs For programmers I predict a future of a million micro services. Sprawling has always been an undesirable and unnecessary byproduct of growing code bases, but there's been no easy solution to that. I wonder if LLMs would perform better on a mono repo of many small services than one sprawling…

Micro-services are part of a system, so to create anything meaningful with them your context window has to include knowledge about the rest of the system anyway. If your system is large and complex, that means a huge context window even if your code itself is small.

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#299

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's what they said about electricity when nuclear power plants were proposed. What's your electricity bill like today?

The primary operating cost of traditional power plants is fuel, i.e. coal and natural gas. The fuel cost for nuclear power plants is negligible because the energy content is higher by more than a factor of a million. So if you build enough nuclear plants to power the grid, charging per kWh for the electricity is pointless because the marginal cost of the fuel is so low. Meanwhile the construction cost should be on pa…

I don't buy into the "red tape" argument. For me it's all due to a lack of a business case. I think building (LWR) nuclear plants is just freaking expensive, has always been freaking expensive, was bankrolled for a while by governments because they thought it would get cheaper, and then largely abandoned in most countries when it proved to be an engineering dead end.

Here's an MIT study that dug into the reasons behind high nuclear construction cost. They found that regulatory burdens were only responsible for 30% of cost increases. Most of the cost overruns were because of needing to adapt the design of the nuclear plant to the site.

https://news.mit.edu/2020/reasons-nuclear-overruns-1118

Now, you can criticize the methodology of that study, but then you have to bring your own study that shows precisely which regulatory burdens are causing these cost overruns, and which of those are in excess. Is it in excess that we have strict workplace safety regulation now? Is it in excess that we demand reactor containment vessels to prevent meltdowns from contaminating ground water supplies? In order to make a good red tape argument I expect detail in what is excess regulation, and I've never seen that.

Besides, if "red tape" and fossil industry marketing was really the cause of unpopularity, and the business case for nuclear was real when installing plants at scale, you would see Russia and China have the majority of their electricity production from nuclear power.

- Russia is the most pro-nuclear country in the world, and even they didn't get past 20% of electricity share. They claim levelized cost for nuclear on the order of that of solar and wind, but I am very skeptical of that number, and anyone who knows anything about the Russian government's relation to the truth will understand why. When they build nuclear plants in other countries (e.g. the bangladesh project) they are not that cheap.

- China sits at low single digit percentages of nuclear share, with a levelized cost that is significantly higher than Russia's and well above that of solar and wind. While they're planning to grow the nuclear share they assume it will be based on new nuclear technology that changes the business case.

Both Russia and China can rely on cheap skilled labor to bring down costs, a luxury western countries do not have.

And this is ultimately the issue: the nuclear industry has been promising designs that bring down costs for over half a century, and they have never delivered on that promise. It's all smoke and mirrors distracting from the fact that building nuclear plants is inherently freaking expensive. Maybe AI can help us design better and cheaper nuclear power plants, but as of today there is no proven nuclear plant design that is economical to build, and that is ultimately why you see so little new nuclear plant construction in the west.

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#300
post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's more that every time the topic has come up, it's reported in watts and I'm not sure if there's a nuance I'm missing. It's entirely possible those reports have been in watt-hours though and using watts for shorthand. I still find the Technology Connections video counterintuitive. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OOK5xkFijPc

Watt-hours is the only unit that makes sense here as we're describing the energy cost of some calculation. Watt, a rate unit, is not appropriate.

I mean you could use joule but wH is better.
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