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PC obsolescence is obsolete

extremetech.com

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Re: PC obsolescence is obsolete

#51
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're putting the cart before the horse. The reason that performance has not improved in the desktop and gaming are due to hitting fundamental limitations in the design of hardware.

As far as I've heard, we haven't hit that limit in the consumer space yet, as we're just starting to get close to hitting it in other spaces. Is this not true?

We have hit it in the consumer space. A powerful processor from three years ago is still a decent processor today. That was not true in, say, 2000. This applies in consumer computers and high performance computers.

For a long time, processor architects were able to increase the frequency, increase the cache size, and increase the pipeline depth (to allow for more instructions in flight at the same time) to yield more powerful processors. As Moore predicted, processor architects kept getting more transistors to play with, and they were able to make processors more powerful by making designs that were "like the old one, just more so." But they've hit fundamental limits in the design: increasing the clock speed and the pipeline depth at the same time means that you have to communicate the same amount of data over a longer distance in a shorter amount of time in the silicon. We've hit the point where it's not feasible to do that anymore.

Hence, multicore. Processor architects are still getting more and more transistors to play with, so instead of using them to make a single core more powerful (as they did for a long time), they're using them to make multiple cores. But you no longer get the "for free" performance boosts that you did when you increased single-core performance. Now we need to change how we make software to take advantage of this new hardware. And some software can't take advantage of this new hardware.

Re: PC obsolescence is obsolete

#52
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're putting the cart before the horse. The reason that performance has not improved in the desktop and gaming are due to hitting fundamental limitations in the design of hardware.

The PlayStation 3 has 256 MB of RAM, not exactly on par with a current PC gaming system, which can easily have 16 GB. I would argue that the rising production costs to produce games that actually make use of ultra-advanced hardware are more to blame for the slowing of the graphics race. You can always do things faster by doing things in parallel. It just gets much harder to program them.

Gaming PCs also have a general purpose OS on them. It's not an apples-to-apples comparison. One is a general purpose computer, the other is a device designed for a single purpose.

But that's beside the point: the games industry drives the graphics card business, but that is only a one part of the consumer computer business. General purpose processors are a larger part, and processor performance improvement is not the exponential curve it was a decade ago.

Re: PC obsolescence is obsolete

#53

I think this pretty well reflects Microsoft's long-term consumer risk, too. More than half of MSFT's revenue ( http://www.tannerhelland.com/4273/microsoft-money-updated-20... ) comes from Windows and Office (and over half the profit, Windows http://news.yahoo.com/microsoft-defer-revenue-windows-upgrad... ). Back in the 90s and early 00s, the rate of change in the PC market was amazing. The hardware you could buy in 1…

Apple's strategy makes sense for Apple, driving down the cost of software makes their hardware more attractive. This doesn't make a great deal of sense for Microsoft, what does is driving down the price of hardware. Their strategy has always been to treat the hardware as a commodity because it is in their interest to do so.

I think it made sense in the 90s-00s rapid innovation space. Microsoft needed a computer on every desk/laptop/car/whatever in order to push Windows and Office licenses. Dramatic advances in hardware drove high turnover and more OEM licensing rev/profit.

Now that folks aren't upgrading very often, the cost of the Windows license is starting to be a much bigger proportion of the total cost, basically creating a price floor of PCs. This sucks if you're an OEM - you have a baked-in cost you don't control (aka MS Tax). Microsoft must naturally drop the licensing price to OEMS in order for OEMs to eek out some profit.

Long run Windows OEM license fees tend to zero. It's already happening with Windows 8 upgrade pricing (Mac OS X has already started this trend) and I expect it to continue.

MSFT knows this which is the primary reason to making their Surface Tablet (and Office online, to get SaaS recurring rev). I don't believe for a minute that they are only doing this as a "reference" implementation.

Re: PC obsolescence is obsolete

#54
post #9

> Now, compare an early Core i7 system (Nehalem) against what’s shipping today (Ivy Bridge). Clock speeds are up a bit, and there are cheaper/lower-end options available, but the Core i7-920 that launched at 2.67GHz with four cores and eight threads is still absolutely capable of powering the latest games and applications. A big, big factor in the slowdown of obsolecense is that the current generation of consoles has…

This can't be emphasized enough- the only reason nothing has moved forward is because gaming hasn't paved the way. Most major hardware advancements on the desktop we've had have been a result of devices added for higher requirements in games. And right now, with the death of the B-tier game studio, there's no one pushing PC-only experiences that really has a reason to ignore the consoles. That's it. Now, whether the…

Console manufacturers would love to have a new one to sell

Why? Don't they pretty much lose money by subsidizing them for a few years and only start breaking even after a long haul? I thought they made their money on game licensing.

Re: PC obsolescence is obsolete

#55
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Integrated devices aren't some grand conspiracy. Modular systems have costs, both in terms of money as well as size and weight. Consumers are deciding on their own, by and large, that modularity isn't worth the cost. Likewise, it's easy to buy non-stupid printers right now, today. But few people want to pay what they cost. Even techies would rather spend $50 on a printer and then complain about how it screws them ove…

Modular systems have costs, both in terms of money as well as size and weight. Right. It's absolutely necessary for Apple to make the new iPad so that you can't even take it to an Apple Store and get the storage upgraded, and to literally glue the Retina version of the MacBook Pro together so it's almost completely impossible to repair anything if it breaks. Some integration has a genuine benefit, such as minimising…

Neither of Apple's non-modular systems you mention are artificial. Upgradeable storage would require substantial additional room in a device that has no room. The Retina MBP's screen is glued together because it makes for a substantial thickness and weight savings.

I'm not saying you can't complain about junk. I'm saying that it's really odd to complain about how it's some conspiracy of manufacturers when it's actually just people preferring the non-modular systems for many reasons, and then giving an example where you yourself went for junk instead of something that's supposedly like what you want.

Re: PC obsolescence is obsolete

#56
post #6

I am absolutely amazed, that picture at the beginning of the article seems to have taken on a life of it's own. More on topic, quick PC obsolescence was always something of a myth. Parts were only really obsolete if you absolutely had to run the latest shooter at the absolute highest settings known to man. So it wasn't that it was obsolete, it was that the user needed to justify their desire to buy the latest for bra…

Less on topic, but more on the picture: I was wondering about that image. Something struck me as off. And then I realized that the computer had a steering wheel. So for those interested, yes, it _is_ odd for a computer to have a steering wheel that large. http://www.snopes.com/inboxer/hoaxes/computer.asp

"Many a prognosticator who has tried to envision the future has been tripped up by a failure to correctly anticipate the direction of technological change."

I straight away thought of Kubrik's 2001. The complete failure to imagine mobile phones. Floyd uses a fixed video phone to phone home from the space ship. Personal mobile technology is the thing.

Back nearer the topic: When I can hook my phone up to a monitor and keyboard I'm done.

http://www.ubuntu.com/devices/android

Re: PC obsolescence is obsolete

#57

No doubt it has been replaced by device obsolescence, where the screen, camera, wireless radio, etc. are bundled together and improvements in any one component compels the purchase of a whole new unit.

Sad, but true. Faced with the reality that well-designed, flexible, modular systems have simply become too good, manufacturers are now effectively building in forced obsolescence, either tying components together (the Apple way) or arbitrarily declaring that only certain combinations are permitted (which also works with consumables, like the way my HP colour printer refused to print a black and white document the oth…

Nerfing hardware artificially can be beneficial to the consumer. I'm sure many things have a lot of their cost not in physical production, but in engineering/design. Software would be an extreme example of this. This being the case, nerfing allows different price points to be offered in order to more efficiently pay back engineering costs on the overall line. This is a win/win for the consumer and the seller compared to offering only one version of something.

Re: PC obsolescence is obsolete

#59

Let's turn this thread on its head Does anyone think a desktop PC with a 20 year life is possible now? What kind of design?

> Does anyone think a desktop PC with a 20 year life is possible now? What kind of design?

Probably not, I think hardware still moves too fast for it. A current PC might serve as a media center for that long, though.

Re: PC obsolescence is obsolete

#60

I think this pretty well reflects Microsoft's long-term consumer risk, too. More than half of MSFT's revenue ( http://www.tannerhelland.com/4273/microsoft-money-updated-20... ) comes from Windows and Office (and over half the profit, Windows http://news.yahoo.com/microsoft-defer-revenue-windows-upgrad... ). Back in the 90s and early 00s, the rate of change in the PC market was amazing. The hardware you could buy in 1…

"I was quite surprised that Mountain Lion was a fee upgrade"

My knowledge of American anti-competition laws is lacking, but I remember back when they were able to release iOS-upgrades for the iPhone, but not the iPod Touch for free. At the time, there was supposedly something on the legal side of things which they were afraid to run afoul with by releasing free iPod Touch updates.

I suppose, if they were to release new versions of OS X for free, they may risk being sued for trying to push competitors out of the market by giving away a product that others are trying to sell.

No, it doesn't seem right to me, but sometimes laws are outdated or simply abused.

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