The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return • Hacker News Board

Re: The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return

#281

Post by freedomben » Thu, May 29, 2025, 6:01 PM UTC

dangus wrote: post #213

hatradiowigwam wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Statistics and wagering aside, IMO, he'd fair poorly (like the previous visit). If I remember correctly...his first visit was prophesied to end exactly as it did. His next visit is prophesied to be a little different - to paraphrase...he is coming with an army to make war on the beast and all [humans] who follow him. Instead of a spotless robe like earlier depictions - this robe is drenched in blood, and he has a s…

> I strongly encourage you all read this book(the bible) and take it to heart. You aren't my friend, or someone that I know - but it would give me no pleasure at all to know you were spending eternity in hell. IMO, you are also an elitist jerk by telling non-believers that they will be going to hell for not believing your religion, a religion which 69% of the entire world does not believe. What kind of god creates be…

> IMO, you are also an elitist jerk by telling non-believers that they will be going to hell for not believing your religion, a religion which 69% of the entire world does not believe.

Dude, that's pretty harsh and I would say quite unfair given what they've said. If he/she/they/whatever believes that we are going to Hell, wouldn't the right thing to do be to tell us and try to save us?

I do think that plenty of people saying similar things can be elitist and requires a certain level of hubris/arrogance, but I don't think that's always the case, and GP definitely didn't strike me as one of those assholes.

> What kind of god creates beings only to punish the majority of them with hellfire? Why would god allow alternative religions to be created just to "trick" his creations into believing the wrong thing?

These are excellent questions/arguments and are on my top five list of "reasons I am not a Christian," and I'd love to hear an explanation from any believers if they'd like to tackle them.

Re: The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return

#282

Post by Sniffnoy » Thu, May 29, 2025, 6:03 PM UTC

ecocentrik wrote: post #254

Sniffnoy wrote: post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article does mention those things. It doesn't consider them big factors. And "the market isn't really about Jesus" is the article's whole point !

Fair resolution is the single biggest issue with prediction markets. I don't see how a market resolution based on the occurrence of a supernatural event isn't a problem.

This is Polymarket, not Manifold. It's not "anyone can create a market and can resolve it however they want". Polymarket creates the markets and resolves them, so an unfair resolution could undercut their reputation and hurt their business. People know what "Jesus returning" means and if they interpret it some other way people won't just say "oh well I guess that was technically within the criteria".

Again, this is in the article! If you want to argue it's a problem, you should start by responding to what the article has to say on the subject, not just asserting it from scratch as if it isn't discussed!

Re: The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return

#283

Post by username332211 » Thu, May 29, 2025, 6:03 PM UTC

IncreasePosts wrote: post #236

tboyd47 wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If not "the majority", then a proportion conceivably large enough to affect the polymarket results.

Isn't that subset of the population also very likely to believe that gambling is haram?

Isn't the entire field of Islamic finance legal (moral?) loopholes that turn the haram into halal?

Re: The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return

#284

Post by freedomben » Thu, May 29, 2025, 6:03 PM UTC

josephcsible wrote: post #225

dangus wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I strongly encourage you all read this book(the bible) and take it to heart. You aren't my friend, or someone that I know - but it would give me no pleasure at all to know you were spending eternity in hell. IMO, you are also an elitist jerk by telling non-believers that they will be going to hell for not believing your religion, a religion which 69% of the entire world does not believe. What kind of god creates be…

> IMO, you are also an elitist jerk by telling non-believers that they will be going to hell for not believing your religion, a religion which 69% of the entire world does not believe. Catholics don't believe that you have to be Catholic to go to heaven. In fact, believing that you do is explicitly condemned as a heresy (Feeneyism).

Interesting! So in Catholicism, what are the belief requirements? Would that mean that some Protestants could go to heaven even if they've never had (Catholic) communion? (Genuine question)

Re: The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return

#285

Post by gs17 » Thu, May 29, 2025, 6:03 PM UTC

ryandv wrote: post #253

dragonwriter wrote: post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Never heard about Jesus pleading for 'seizing means of production'. This is something he has in common with many of the people that modern dominant (in the US, at least) political groups condemn for "socialism".

Then they should choose not to identify with a word that is defined by "social ownership of the means of production," [0] whose main proponent advocates that there is "only one way, [...] and that way is revolutionary terror." [1] You can't equivocate terms like this, identifying with the more extreme definition but walking it back when pressed. This is active distortion and manipulation of language, and this is far…

They can't choose it, they didn't (necessarily) identify as it in the first place.

> the people that modern dominant (in the US, at least) political groups condemn for "socialism"

They weren't talking about actual socialists, they're talking about the right's propensity to call anyone else a leftist. For example, if you ask my dad if Biden was a socialist, he'd tell you yes, and then if you asked how, he would list many things that have nothing to do with economic policy.

Re: The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return

#286

Post by freedomben » Thu, May 29, 2025, 6:04 PM UTC

tartuffe78 wrote: post #9

k310 wrote: post #5

[flagged]

He's coming back as a lion though right? We seem primed for authoritarian Jesus (in America at least)

Yes exactly, first time he came as lamb, next time as a lion. It's going to be ugly, and people rejecting him isn't going to stop it.

Disclaimer: No longer a believer so take with a grain of salt

Re: The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return

#287

Post by zahlman » Thu, May 29, 2025, 6:04 PM UTC

msgodel wrote: post #163

scarmig wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You'd still want to hedge.

I've tried to explain this to people before. Polymarket's contracts aren't purely poles for people's predictions, some people just want to be long volatility for any number of reasons. The recent doge tax refund is a good example. If you want to be guaranteed payment you could bet on no even if you think it's a coinflip.

>Polymarket's contracts aren't purely poles for people's predictions

Polymarket propositions purportedly powerless as pure poles for popular predictions?

Re: The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return

#288

Post by vel0city » Thu, May 29, 2025, 6:04 PM UTC

marcusverus wrote: post #234

vel0city wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

[flagged]

That's why Jesus said "Better pick up a stone otherwise you're just encouraging adultery!"

I'm not for encouraging people to get abortions. I think abortions are a terrible and sad thing. I wish for a world where nobody would ever need to have such a procedure done. I also think its terrible to have the state force people to carry risky pregnancies to term. I also think its bad for us to then go on and be hateful to those who have had an abortion, and I also think its wrong to firebomb places which give healthcare.

But many others disagree.

Re: The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return

#289

Post by lupusreal » Thu, May 29, 2025, 6:06 PM UTC

phkahler wrote: post #80

lokar wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They have more basic issues: Just one-third of U.S. Catholics agree with their church that Eucharist is body, blood of Christ https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/08/05/transubst...

I think the Carholic church has decided it's dangerous to accept parts of the Bible as metaphor, so they must force a literal interpretation on everything - even to the point of absurdity. Jesus said it's his body and blood so it must be. Because you know, everyone making a symbolic gesture always says that's what they're doing...

The Catholic Church is broadly accepting of metaphorical interpretation, but with respect to the blood and wine specifically they committed to that literal interpretation a very long time ago.

Re: The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return

#290

Post by freedomben » Thu, May 29, 2025, 6:06 PM UTC

1234letshaveatw wrote: post #211

codr7 wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And I seriously doubt he would approve of Christianity as practiced in general.

non-believers always seem to be the expert in that sort of thing

Hypocrisy is always easier to see from the outside. That said I do think non-believers (such as myself) often have unreasonable and unrealistic "standards" for what they expect from a Christian.

That said many Christians I know are much harsher critics of other Christians who don't live their beliefs than most of the atheists I know, and IMHO that's how it should be.