251–260 of 649 posts
https://quantian.substack.com/p/market-prices-are-not-probab...
I can shed some light on this, maybe - In the year before the 2020 election, a market opened on predictit called "Will Hillary run for president? Yes/No" First this was a reasonable market, but quickly it became obvious she wasn't running (because she repeatedly said she wasn't, there was no campaign created at all, absolutely zero indicators she was running because she wasn't). Predictit allowed a comment section wh…
The most interesting part of the article IMO was the fact that the 3% probability is artificially high because there is no one willing to take the otherside of the bet, because betting "No" requires you to give your money to the prediction market for 6+ months, and if you're only getting a 1% return if you win the bet, you'll make more money if you put the cash in a high yield savings account.
Seems like prediction/betting markets only really work well when there is a reasonable chance of either outcome occurring, and is less accurate the more obvious one outcome is compared to another?
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Never heard about Jesus pleading for 'seizing means of production'. I heard it was more like 'Give back to Caesar what is Caesar’s'.
> Never heard about Jesus pleading for 'seizing means of production'. This is something he has in common with many of the people that modern dominant (in the US, at least) political groups condemn for "socialism".
You can't equivocate terms like this, identifying with the more extreme definition but walking it back when pressed. This is active distortion and manipulation of language, and this is far from the only instance of such in society.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socialism
[1] https://www.marxists.org/archive/marx/works/1848/11/06.htm
The discussion in Polymarket revolves around the trustworthiness of the market creator and their resolution criteria. Any discussion here that doesn't consider those things is missing the forest for the trees. The market isn't really about Jesus. Jesus is just the engagement hook. It's the reason this post has 147+ comments on Hacker News and $500k+ in market transactions on Polymarket. There's very little stopping t…
The article does mention those things. It doesn't consider them big factors. And "the market isn't really about Jesus" is the article's whole point !
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Churches are fine - there are endless letters and instructions to them in the scripture you mention. "Religion" is not the same word as church. If you feel compelled to "demonstrate why almost every claim you said..." etc, feel free - it's ok! Christianity is about mercy and compassion, and you mention "emotion" - that's absolutely true. I'm very emotional about it, because my message is an emotional one, and emotion…
So Jesus: 1. Founded a church 2. told the apostles to make all nations disciplines and baptize them, bringing them into that church 3. The apostles wrote letters to those churches instructing the people on how to live a christian life 4. The successors of those apostles carried on their teachings, spreading more churches all over the world and convening councils to clarify doctrine sounds a lot like a religion, how d…
The letters you speak of (penned by apostles of Jesus) are exactly as you describe. They were humans, trying to do what a divine being told them to do. It appears they went about it(at least partially) by writing letters. The passage I believe you are referring to, where Jesus instructs his disciples is:
> Therefore go and make disciples of all nations, baptizing them in the name of the Father and of the Son and of the Holy Spirit,
This doesn't say to "spread religion", it literally tells them to teach and baptize all nations. They went and wrote letters, and here we are thousands of years later calling that "religion".
What is important to you? I see this conversation as attempting to make disciples of all nation. If it's successful for anyone(not you necessarily, maybe someone reading)...then hoo-ah! That's a win! If not, the instructions that preceded the passage you refer to say that I should "shake the dust from my feet", and leave the metaphorical house(s) that will not listen.
I don't know how we got from 0-50 A.D. to where we are now, regarding "religion", but I don't see even the most remote connection from the behavior of Jesus' disciples and their letter writing, to whatever the heck is going on in modern day.
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Do you think it's weird that ethnic groups separated by thousands of years of evolution came up with completely different gods and forms of worship? If there was an omniscient being don't you think it would make itself known in a little more universal fashion? And isn't it strange that the institutions built around our current iteration of God are soft power structures that wield huge amounts of influence both financ…
Have you ever played telephone? Messages get distorted in a couple minutes. Thousands of years is plenty of time to be easily believe that people would deviate on various gods.
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Keep in mind true believers often learn to live with a massive cognitive dissonance This is quite true. Taking away just the moral teachings is not true belief. Revelations is serious business stuff, the apostles watched Christ ascend from Mount Olive, it’s extremely trippy things. True believers are literally believing in wild shit. In fact, if you are true believer, you almost need to keep it hidden because it’s go…
Do you think it's weird that ethnic groups separated by thousands of years of evolution came up with completely different gods and forms of worship? If there was an omniscient being don't you think it would make itself known in a little more universal fashion? And isn't it strange that the institutions built around our current iteration of God are soft power structures that wield huge amounts of influence both financ…
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It is not that easy. If we look at historical context we can see that for example in judaism they have this midrash: "The Holy One said, open for me a door as big as a needle's eye and I will open for you a door through which may enter tents and camels." Sounds familiar? The meaning of that saying in jewish context is that we cant really understand Gods abilities. Could the christian saying mean something else? Sure.…
In your example the saying suggests that a Camel going through the eye of a needle is an extraordinary event like a rich person going to heaven in the traditional Christian saying. It is incredibly clear and without nuance nor is there a reason to suppose it's an issue with translation. Its also consistent philosophically nor is it the sort of thing that the powerful would want inserted when they compiled works. If y…
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"Religion" doesn't have the slightest thing to do with Jesus coming. Religion human thing. Jesus didn't say "go and spread religion to every man"...he said "go and spread the GOOD NEWS to every man". Religion is the word we use to describe how us human's have managed to twist and warp and misunderstand that good news. We use it for gate keeping: "sorry this event is for church members only". We use it to put down peo…
I literally have no idea what you're talking about. I feel people like you pretend Europe's colonial era didn't exist or the American slave trade didn't exist or the holocaust didn't exist, etc... etc... etc... The only response to the millennia long list of atrocities Christians have committed, often times to other Christians, is the 'no true Scotsman' fallacy.
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"they haven't really understood the bible." Pretty much every religious person believes that THEIR understanding is the correct one. You cant objectively say that "this is the correct understanding" from a religous perspective (you can however do it from a for example a historical or textual analysis perspective). You cant objectively prove that only mormons or bapists have "understood" the bible correct and everyone…
that's my point. everyone has a different idea/interpretation, and thus there is no objective definition of a true believer. GP says that true believers come off as insane. that doesn't sound like a sensible definition for a true believer. iaw. whatever a true believer is, i don't think it's that. what if jesus already returned? then the true believers would only be those that have recognized his return. there are pe…