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Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

telegraph.co.uk

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Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#681

Post by missedthecue »

triceratops wrote: post #605
jordanb wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fundamentally any retirement plan that doesn't involve canned food in a celler is pay-go because the retirees will be consuming resources from the economy they retired into rather than the one they were workers in. Their retirement savings can be in public company stocks instead of government guarantees but that only works if there are people willing to buy those stocks (ex: younger people saving for retirement).

That's only true if the economy doesn't grow i.e. productivity doesn't improve. If retirements are funded from returns on assets they scale with productivity. If they're funded by current workers they're bounded by the limits of population and wage growth.

There is a production side of the equation but also a demand side. Through robotics and AI, Toyota might get really good at making cars really fast with minimal human labor. But if the demand for cars drops every year, the value of Toyota will be like a melting ice cube. This will be true for all stocks actually, (except perhaps the firms that sell adult diapers) but not only stocks, but property as well. And probably bonds. Do we really think Japan is good for their 2060 bonds, assuming no debasement?

In a world with forever imploding consumer aggregate demand, there is no safe asset.

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#682

Post by throwaway2037 »

Ancalagon wrote: post #551
SchemaLoad wrote: post #542

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't that exactly how retirement works though? Old people who produce no labour but just get everything given to them because of the capitol they built up previously.

No, the parent is talking about inheritors. Japan mostly solves this with very high inheritance taxes.

    > Japan mostly solves this with very high inheritance taxes.
This is a myth. It is lower than most wealthy European nations.

Details: https://taxsummaries.pwc.com/japan/individual/other-taxes

Also: https://retirewiki.jp/wiki/Inheritance_tax

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#683

Post by missedthecue »

manmal wrote: post #288

Where I live, people have issues getting hired past age 50, and it’s near impossible past age 60. It’s a stroke of luck if you score a job then. So yes they can raise retirement age, but that will just create misery for all those who can’t cling to a job long enough. There‘s got to be a better way.

You won't work in your career field at that age unless you have profound skill and expertise. You will put cans on grocery store shelves.

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#684

Post by insane_dreamer »

kypro wrote: post #202

Why do people owe me a nice retirement? I never really got the idea of state-funded retirement. Perhaps I should feel I'm owed something if I'm too fragile/disabled to work, but I don't know why age alone should grant me anything? Appreciate this is a controversial view so interested in hearing why I'm wrong so I can stop holding it. I think retirement should just be replaced by disability welfare to be honest.

The state isn't paying for it, you're paying for it, through your taxes. (Technically you're paying for the next generation's retirement, but it's the same principle.)

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#685

Post by Jensson »

throwaway2037 wrote: post #671
jltsiren wrote: post #621

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs." That socialist principle has always been the essence of the Nordic model. While the Nordic countries chose regulated markets over actual socialism, they embraced that part of socialism. As a citizen, your moral duty is to contribute when you can. If too many people fail to do that, the system falls apart. In exchange, the government evens the burde…

> Nordic model I see this term used frequently in Anglo-American media. I don't get it. What is special or different about the "Nordic" model compared to France, Belgium, Netherlands, Germany and Austria? Their regulations, tax rates, and social benefits are nearly identical. > with limited ambitions outside their borders I don't understand this phrase. Can you explain more? Some examples and counter-examples would h…

> I see this term used frequently in Anglo-American media. I don't get it. What is special or different about the "Nordic" model compared to France, Belgium, Netherlands, Germany and Austria? Their regulations, tax rates, and social benefits are nearly identical.

The big difference is the culture around it all, in Scandinavia these things works with low corruption and high freedom and transparency while the more southern parts are much more corrupt and authoritarian.

So that results in Scandinavian countries topping so many charts while France, Austria, Germany etc do not. So the difference is not what they do but how deeply rooted that is in their culture. Scandinavian countries started this, the others just copied Scandinavia.

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#686

Post by throwaway2037 »

epoxia wrote: post #437
8fingerlouie wrote: post #405

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So that's the plan ? Make sure enough people die before reaching retirement age ? My point is, if you're unfit to drive a vehicle due to cognitive or physical decline, you're probably also unfit for most jobs involving those skills, and yet you have to soldier on for 4 more years. What happens when they're putting a new roof on a building next to a crowded street, and the 73 year old carpenter drops a bunch of tiles…

You can concoct these make believe hypotheticals, or you can look at countries where this is the reality (South Korea; high elderly poverty), and how there is no "elderly employee accident crisis". Whether it is right, moral, just etc. is the issue. I would just say to not wait until retirement to "live your life".

    > South Korea; high elderly poverty
It is interesting that you selected South Korea as your example. There are as rich as Japan, but have much worse social benefits, including national pension. I don't understand why.

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#687

Post by [deleted] »

wsatb wrote: post #648
jltsiren wrote: post #583

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is nothing sad about this. Mandatory pensions are not a vacation sponsored by the government but a way to provide for those who can't provide for themselves. If you were born in the 70s, you should have known for most of your adult life that your normal retirement age is likely going to be around 70. The demographic situation is not new, the solutions have been discussed extensively since at least the 90s, and…

You said there’s nothing sad about it and then followed it up with some pretty sad realities. It’s incredibly sad. People should be working less as we advance as a society, not more.

[deleted]

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#688

Post by Calavar »

reliabilityguy wrote: post #666
Calavar wrote: post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US docotor shortage is a myth. Wait times are the result of beauracratic nonsense has reduced the efficiency of the existing physician workforce [1, 2]. [1] https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/26132... [2] https://hbr.org/2020/03/the-problem-with-u-s-health-care-isn...

Has nothing to do with wait times. AMA lobbies the government to keep number of seat at med schools low, number of residencies low, etc. as a result number of licensed doctors is low, and salaries remain high.

The AMA has been arguing for increased medical school seats and increased GME funding for about 20 years now. There have been 27 (!!) new medical schools opened in the last 15 years, in large part driven by the AMA in its capacity as one of the two primary stakeholders in the LCME, which accredits allopathic medical schools.

1 out of every 7 medical schools currently active in the US was founded in the year 2010 or after. That's a veritable bonanza in medical school creation, facilitated by the AMA.

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#689

Post by vasco »

wkat4242 wrote: post #668
timewizard wrote: post #630

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "every man for himself" 401(k) thing It allows you to do that. In most cases there are various life index funds that operate the way a traditional pension scheme would and is likely the default option in any employer plan. You can additionally add your own money outside of your paycheck and you can use the money inside of the fund to make your own investments. You are also allowed to take personal loans against you…

I prefer the old system because it's simpler (the last thing I want to do is manage investments) and it doesn't run out like a personal pension does. You just get the monthly amount as long as you live. Because it's a group scheme. Some people are luckier than others. Unfortunately Holland has become very neoliberal and everything collective or social is frowned upon. That's really why they changed it.

> and it doesn't run out like a personal pension does. You just get the monthly amount as long as you live

It doesn't run out? What's this magic infinite money? It doesn't run out because when it runs out other people are working for you. It's a great system that exploits the young to benefit the old that didn't save enough. The new system removes the magic and you have what you saved.

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#690

Post by discodonkey »

This is perfectly reasonable.

People are living and staying healthy for longer than they used to, while the overall population is aging disproportionally due to low birth rates. If they hadn't raised the retirement age, they would have to raise taxes very significantly.

People should remember that retirement is about making sure the people who are too old to work can still live respectably. It's not an end-of-life vacation.

Of course, it's still going to be massively unpopular. But the alternative is fiscal armageddon.

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