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Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

telegraph.co.uk

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Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#441

Post by eloisant »

constantcrying wrote: post #28
dtgm92 wrote: post #9

This is because of their low birth rate primarily right? I think the system has failed at this point, when you are expected to work that long.

No. It is about how the system is funded. If pensions were funded by actual retirement accounts, where employees invested money into some state fund and have it paid out for retirement this would be entirely unproblematic. But the pension system in many EU countries is set up in a way in which tax contributions now finance pensions now . This can only work with a steadily growing economy which continually generates m…

> If pensions were funded by actual retirement accounts, where employees invested money into some state fund and have it paid out for retirement this would be entirely unproblematic.

You're talking about a system of pension by capitalization, like in US, which comes with its own problems.

Namely that if you reach retirement age during a crash like in 2008, you're screwed. You have to work 5 more years hoping the market recovers in the meantime, or retire anyway and get way less than you put in.

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#442

Post by godelski »

wyager wrote: post #414
amag wrote: post #409

This is truly sad. As a Swede I fear my country may follow suite. The retirement age in Sweden used to be 65 and now it's 67. Looking at older people around me, most lead a much less active life after 75. So, if we were lucky we used to have some 10 good years of doing whatever we wanted before old age and age-related diseases start affecting us so much we become limited to a much smaller world. But now we have maybe…

> I think if you've put in 40-45 years for the man, you should be allowed to have some good 10 years for yourself. Who do you think would "allow" this? God? This is a resource constraint imposed by reality itself catching up to an excessively idealistic set of policies; this policy decision is downstream of that, not arbitrary.

  > This is a resource constraint imposed by reality itself
No, it is a resource allocation problem.

I don't think we should have ceilings, but we certainly should have floors. Minimum standards. Despite that belief, I think there is something wrong when there's about 20 people who make more money while they take a shit, than most American families make in a year[0] and a buttload who make that same amount while they're asleep[1]. These levels of wealth are so large that they are extremely difficult, if not impossible, to spend within several generations, not just one lifetime.

This is only a problem, because the floor is lowering while the number of people in these groups are growing, especially the shit group.

If we have to make trades between ceiling and floor, I'd rather sacrifice ceiling for floor than floor for ceiling. Because the latter is simply greed.

Importantly, we can have both. This isn't a zero sum game, we produce more wealth and resources as time goes on. It is only zero sum at a single point in time. We can simultaneously raise the ceiling and the floor. But currently, we are shifting what percent of these gains go to which groups.

It would be insane to build extravagant and ornate Cathedral ceilings to only have a dirt floor. It would be dangerous to build those ceilings without ensuring there is a strong foundation and forgetting to build the pillars to support them. Without that, the ceilings fall and it all becomes dirt and rubble.

It is an allocation problem, not an amount problem.

[0] If you have $100bn, are able to make a conservative 0.05 yearly interest and take 5min to shit, you've made ~$50k during that time.

[1] You only need $1bn given the same statistics, but closer to $45k. There's over 3k billionaires.

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#443

Post by eloisant »

WA wrote: post #14
deanc wrote: post #4

I’m not sure how I feel about this. I’m based in the Nordics and my estimated retirement age at the moment (where I can get my state pension) is 67y 4m. Whilst I understand the burden the aging population is having on society (lifespan) it doesn’t seem like there’s much proactive government input into people’s healthspan. Maybe instead we should try investing in this area (reducing the burden on services) instead of…

It’s the other way around: a few decades ago people retired only a few years earlier, had 5-10 years of retirement and then died. Now people live way longer, but the retirement age never got adjusted properly to the new reality. So 15-20 years of retirement is the new normal. In addition, way fewer young payers for the now old.

People live longer but not necessarily healthier.

They'll go directly from factory line to care home.

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#445

Post by onlyrealcuzzo »

mattnewton wrote: post #104
dueltmp_yufsy wrote: post #97

Seems the US will have to do this soon. Just very very unpopular. Not sure which party will actually pull the trigger.

My guess - they'll just gut the benefits to anemic levels for everyone slowly rather than some big easy to point to maneuver like this.

Whoever does that will get voted out.

Voters over 62 make up >25% of the midterm vote.

By 2030 - that number could easily be >30%.

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#446

Post by rightbyte »

tossandthrow wrote: post #440
amag wrote: post #426

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course there is no guarantee that your 65-75 years will be good, but it's a lot more likely that your 65-75 years will be good than your 75-85 years.

The point is, that the society does not owe you 10 years to do whatever.

Which is why he argues it should?

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#447

Post by arexxbifs »

intothemild wrote: post #425
amag wrote: post #409

This is truly sad. As a Swede I fear my country may follow suite. The retirement age in Sweden used to be 65 and now it's 67. Looking at older people around me, most lead a much less active life after 75. So, if we were lucky we used to have some 10 good years of doing whatever we wanted before old age and age-related diseases start affecting us so much we become limited to a much smaller world. But now we have maybe…

There's only one issue I can think of with your idea that someone who is 75 now leads a life as you're describing. The generation they belong to are predicted to live to what 80-85 years? Whilst we (assuming you're in your 40's now) are predicted to get to what 90-95 on average? Average lifespans are increasing, and on top of that the mobility of someone who's 75 now, won't be the same of someone who's 75 in another…

With an aging population and increasingly long work lives, individual stressors will increase and societal capacity for healthcare (and overall prosperity) will dwindle. Baby boomers, having lived through some of the most incredible growth in human history, will perhaps turn out to be an anomalous blip in the life expectancy stats.

Also, people age differently. There's a difference between living and being alive.

Not that it's an easy problem to solve, what with the demographics being what they are. I think we'll have to get used to the thought - and reality - of sinking living standards in the west.

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#448

Post by moominpapa »

Yes,people were living longer, but let's see how that looks in 10 years time. Who wants to be working in their late 60s anyway? And by working I mean having to work. If you are not working to feed and house yourself and dependents then you are not working you are choosing to work which is not work as far as I am concerned.

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#449

Post by Jyaif »

amag wrote: post #409

This is truly sad. As a Swede I fear my country may follow suite. The retirement age in Sweden used to be 65 and now it's 67. Looking at older people around me, most lead a much less active life after 75. So, if we were lucky we used to have some 10 good years of doing whatever we wanted before old age and age-related diseases start affecting us so much we become limited to a much smaller world. But now we have maybe…

The earlier they increase retirement age, the less painful it's going to be.

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#450

Post by 8fingerlouie »

epoxia wrote: post #437
8fingerlouie wrote: post #405

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So that's the plan ? Make sure enough people die before reaching retirement age ? My point is, if you're unfit to drive a vehicle due to cognitive or physical decline, you're probably also unfit for most jobs involving those skills, and yet you have to soldier on for 4 more years. What happens when they're putting a new roof on a building next to a crowded street, and the 73 year old carpenter drops a bunch of tiles…

You can concoct these make believe hypotheticals, or you can look at countries where this is the reality (South Korea; high elderly poverty), and how there is no "elderly employee accident crisis". Whether it is right, moral, just etc. is the issue. I would just say to not wait until retirement to "live your life".

What does the unemployment statistics say about craftsmen in the age bracket 60-70 ? Or any other line of work ?

Many craftsmen in Denmark are working contracts where they get paid more the faster they finish the job, and nobody wants a 70 year old dragging down their hourly wage just because they can't keep up, so the 70 year old will just have to "keep up", either making mistakes along the way, or wearing out their already worn out bodies some more.

There are options for "early" retirement at 70, provided you've spent 46 years employed. That means you started working at 24 at the very latest, and was not unemployed for longer periods.

Saving up for your own retirement is also hard with low to medium income wages in a country where you pay 40-50% income tax, 25% sales tax and retirement funds are taxed at deposit (meaning capital gains will be lower).

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