Denmark to raise retirement age to 70 • Hacker News Board

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#151

Post by lancekey » Sun, May 25, 2025, 6:38 PM UTC

philjohn wrote: post #106

lancekey wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But people are living longer, in better health (I think but didn’t verify with data) and entering the workforce later (due to more secondary schooling). Setting aside the issues of declining birth rate for a minute, this seems like a reasonable adjustment to the other factors?

It's rising, but much slower than before - and plateaud in the 2010's for a good few years, UK stats - https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/gbr/uni...

So since 1950, lifespan has gone up ~14 years in UK.

Retirement age has not gone up since it was created in 1940s. Not crazy to raise it a little.

Quickly looking at Denmark articles, it seems they’re raising the age to adjust to life expectancy increases as well.

I don’t see this a sign of the system failing.

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#152

Post by mihaaly » Sun, May 25, 2025, 6:38 PM UTC

dtgm92 wrote: post #9

This is because of their low birth rate primarily right? I think the system has failed at this point, when you are expected to work that long.

Of course it failed when it was created in completely different circumstances.

Or some may say it got outdated.

It was started at times when the life expentancy was low. And it was given at age above the life expentancy. And in the beginning not to everyone. The retirement age got lower and given to broader set of population gradually. These moves made governments popular, so it was no brainer to introduce, on the expense of future generations.

Birth rates that can maintain the economics of relatively low retirement age could not be sustained without destroying the planet. Actually has to be reversed still as it went too far already and deteriorating as we speak, especialy with the ongoing large increase in the overall life quality - causing decreasing birth rate alone - and healt. The system was destined to fail. But how to take away rights? It is much harder than giving, especiallly when the adverse effects are for current voters, not future generations?

So the necessary steps are postponed, postponed, postponed yet again, for many decades, taking about necessity in many forms, meanwhile filling bigger and bigger holes in the budgets, through borrowing, making the problem worse, again for future generations. Very few countries do tiny adjustments, and even those are met with huge protests mostly.

I wonder what the future holds. Painful adjustments or more painful collapse later in some form.

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#153

Post by bee_rider » Sun, May 25, 2025, 6:39 PM UTC

m4rtink wrote: post #143

nicolashahn wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So close! Pensions are actually property taken from the younger generation and given to retirees.

Isn't it essentially a thanks/appreciation for what the people built once they retire ? Without theire work, there would be nothing for the younger people to use and benefit from. Would not be very motivational if you work hard your whole life and then you are considered a useless burden once you retire.

I’ll take the thanks/appreciation in the form of wages instead, thanks!

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#154

Post by dtech » Sun, May 25, 2025, 6:40 PM UTC

spacebanana7 wrote: post #65

tossandthrow wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Birthrates are problematic as it usually take 20 to 25 years before they pay taxes. And in that time they require a lot of expenses. They talk abiut the squeeze, if Birthrates increase too suddenly - workers would both have to pay for the elderly and the kids.

This is the real demographic death trap, and why Taiwan and South Korea are probably past the point of no return. If one generation has a fertility rate of 1 child per woman, the next must have 4 children per woman to undo the demographic change. The people in the “corrective” generation must support their own two elderly parents plus four of their own children. It becomes practically impossible.

Getting to a fertility rate of 2.1 will at least mean the problem will end at some point and the population will be stable, altough it will take the better half of a century.

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#155

Post by ModernMech » Sun, May 25, 2025, 6:40 PM UTC

energy123 wrote: post #113

mattnewton wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My guess - they'll just gut the benefits to anemic levels for everyone slowly rather than some big easy to point to maneuver like this.

What is the political incentive to do this ever?

Where is the political incentive not to do this ever? If you reduce spending on social safety nets, you can reduce taxes on the wealthy, and as a bonus the poor die. win/win.

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#156

Post by FirmwareBurner » Sun, May 25, 2025, 6:41 PM UTC

bombcar wrote: post #145

hmmokidk wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can also just raise taxes on the super rich

A 99.9% wealth tax on US billionaires would cover the annual deficit for about 1.5 years. The scale of the problem is absolutely mind-blowing.

US annual deficit/debt is a meaningless number since it just prints as much money as it needs being the world reserve currency. It's a looney toons number.

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#157

Post by sorokod » Sun, May 25, 2025, 6:46 PM UTC

matsemann wrote: post #139

jampekka wrote: post #119

It's utterly insane that people need to work more and longer as technology increases productivity. A truly dystopian economic system. In 1930 Keynes projected that by 2000 their grandchildren could work 15 hours per week¹. Now the projection is that we will work more and longer in the future. And what is this labor supposed to even do? How much of even current work really increases wellbeing? Graeber's thesis of bull…

Yes, that's what strikes me as well. Where is the productivity gains going? Why are we still working 40 hour weeks, and possibly even for many more years? If I remember correctly, Denmark even removed a holiday recently. So work more days a year as well. That's the problem here. That a few people reap all the benefits of this, while the rest of us toil.

> Where is the productivity gains going?

Reinvested to increase future productivity

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#158

Post by littlestymaar » Sun, May 25, 2025, 6:47 PM UTC

lostlogin wrote: post #40

littlestymaar wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are missing the most important one: - increase productivity more than how much the workforce/receivers grow. And if AI/robots eventually deliver, we're soon going to need a discussion about lowering the retirement age to 55 or even 50 if we don't want 30% unemployment anyway.

The money made and saved isn’t going to go to governments and the population though. As it stands, a couple of billionaires will become richer.

That's a political decision though, and they try to hide it behind this kind of false trilemma.

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#159

Post by testing22321 » Sun, May 25, 2025, 6:47 PM UTC

nialv7 wrote: post #121

dainiusse wrote: post #107

The best phrase I read by someone. "Retirement is a financial goal - it has nothing to do with age". And this makes huge sense...

well in this context it generally means the age someone starts to receive state pension.

And in many countries it defines the age you can withdraw money from your own retirement savings without paying full income tax.

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#160

Post by ModernMech » Sun, May 25, 2025, 6:47 PM UTC

mrcwinn wrote: post #22

deanc wrote: post #4

I’m not sure how I feel about this. I’m based in the Nordics and my estimated retirement age at the moment (where I can get my state pension) is 67y 4m. Whilst I understand the burden the aging population is having on society (lifespan) it doesn’t seem like there’s much proactive government input into people’s healthspan. Maybe instead we should try investing in this area (reducing the burden on services) instead of…

As an American, I’m often that countries like Denmark are in fact constantly investing in health and entitlements, and so everyone is healthier and happier. Is that not the case?

Average lifespan is 81 in Denmark and 78 in USA. During the pandemic, average USA lifespan dropped to 76, while in Denmark it didn't drop below 81. So yes, it seems they are in fact healthier.

https://countryeconomy.com/countries/compare/denmark/usa?sc=...