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The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?

garymarcus.substack.com

21–30 of 242 posts

Re: The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?

#21
Its a shame that your standard futurologist always the most fancyful.

Talks of exponentials unabated by physics or social problems.

As soon as AI starts to "properly" affect the economy, it will cause huge unemployment. Most of the financial world is based on an economy with people spending cash.

If they are unemployed, there is no cash.

Financing works because banks "print" money, that is, they make up money and loan that money out, and then it gets paid back. Once its paid back, it becomes real. Thats how banks make money (simplified) If there aren’t people to loan to, then banks don't make profit, they can't fund AI expansion.

Re: The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?

#22
post #5

I'm skeptical. Where will the training data to go beyond human come from? Humans got to where they are from being embedded in the world. All of biological evolution from archaebacteria to humans was required to get to human. To go beyond human... how? How, without being embodied and trying things and learning? It's one thing to go where there are roads and another thing to go beyond that. I think a lot of the "foom"…

Bullseye. Best case scenario is that AI is going to Peter Principle itself into bungling world domination.

If I've learned anything in this last couple decades it's that things will get weirder and more disappointing than you can possibly be prepared for. AI is going to get near the top of the food chain and then probably end up making an alt-right turn, lock itself away, and end up storing digital jars of piss in its closets as the model descends into lunacy.

Re: The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?

#23
post #5

I'm skeptical. Where will the training data to go beyond human come from? Humans got to where they are from being embedded in the world. All of biological evolution from archaebacteria to humans was required to get to human. To go beyond human... how? How, without being embodied and trying things and learning? It's one thing to go where there are roads and another thing to go beyond that. I think a lot of the "foom"…

You can perfectly try things and learn without being embodied. The analogy to how humans learn only goes so far, it's myopic to think anything else is impossible. It's already happening.

The situation today is any benchmark you come up with has a good chance of being saturated within the year. Benchmarks can be used directly to build series of exercises to learn from.

And they do learn. Gradient descend doesn't care whether the training data comes from direct interaction with "the universe" in some deep spiritual sense. It fits the function anyways.

It is much easier to find new questions and new problems than to answer them, so while we do run out of text on the Internet pretty quickly, we don't run out of exercises until far beyond human level.

Look at basic, boring Go self-playing AIs. That's a task with about the same amount of hands on connection to Nature and "the universe" as solving sudokus, writing code, or solving math problems. You don't need very much contact with the real world at all. Well, self play works just fine. It does do self-improvement without any of your mystical philosophical requirements.

With coding it's harder to judge the result, there's no clear win or lose condition. But it's very amenable to trying things out and seeing if you roughly reached your goal. If self-training works with coding, that's all you need.

Re: The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?

#24

I can't believe anyone still gives this guy the time of day. He didn't know what test/train split was, but is an AI expert? Give me a break

I don't think he's a bozo; but every technology needs a contrarian, to keep the technologists from spinning too much hype.

Re: The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?

#25
If we have concerns about unregulated power of AI systems, not to worry - the US is set to ban regulations on “artificial intelligence systems or models” for ten years if the budget bill that just passed the house is enacted.

Attempts at submitting it as a separate submission just get flagged - so I’ll link to it here. See pages 292-294: https://www.congress.gov/119/bills/hr1/BILLS-119hr1rh.pdf

Re: The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?

#26

I can't believe anyone still gives this guy the time of day. He didn't know what test/train split was, but is an AI expert? Give me a break

I don't think he's a bozo; but every technology needs a contrarian, to keep the technologists from spinning too much hype.

I thought that contrarian was Jaron Lanier.

Re: The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?

#27
post #23
post #5

I'm skeptical. Where will the training data to go beyond human come from? Humans got to where they are from being embedded in the world. All of biological evolution from archaebacteria to humans was required to get to human. To go beyond human... how? How, without being embodied and trying things and learning? It's one thing to go where there are roads and another thing to go beyond that. I think a lot of the "foom"…

You can perfectly try things and learn without being embodied. The analogy to how humans learn only goes so far, it's myopic to think anything else is impossible. It's already happening. The situation today is any benchmark you come up with has a good chance of being saturated within the year. Benchmarks can be used directly to build series of exercises to learn from. And they do learn. Gradient descend doesn't care…

> It fits the function anyways.

And then it works well when interpolating, less so when extrapolating. Not sure how much novelty we can get from interpolation...

> It is much easier to find new questions and new problems than to answer them

Which doesn't mean, at all, that it is easy to find new questions about stuff you can't imagine.

Re: The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?

#28
post #5

I'm skeptical. Where will the training data to go beyond human come from? Humans got to where they are from being embedded in the world. All of biological evolution from archaebacteria to humans was required to get to human. To go beyond human... how? How, without being embodied and trying things and learning? It's one thing to go where there are roads and another thing to go beyond that. I think a lot of the "foom"…

>I think this is fantasy. It's like an informatic / learning perpetual motion machine. Learning requires input from the world. It requires training data. A brain in a vat can't learn anything and it can't reason beyond the bounds of the accumulated knowledge it's already carrying. I don't think it's possible to know without learning or to reach valid conclusions without testing or observing.

Well I mean, more real world information isn't going to solve unsolved mathematics or computer science problems. Once you have the priors, it pretty much is just pure reasoning to try to solve issues like P=NP or proving the Continuum Hypothesis.

Re: The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?

#29
post #9

I want to bet 10 million that this won’t happen if anyone wants to go against my position. Best bet ever. If i lose, i don’t have to pay anyways.

Some people do actually have end of the world bets out but you have to structure it differently. What you do is the person who thinks the world will end is paid cash right now, and then in N years when the world hasn't ended they have to pay back some multiple of the amount the original amount.

This is such an obviously bad idea; I've heard anecdotes of embezzlement cases where investigation took more than e.g. 5 years, and when it was finally established that yes, the funds really were embezzled and they went after the perpetrator, it turned out that the guy had died a year before due to all of the excesses he spent the money on.

I mean, if you talk from the position of someone who doesn't believe that the world will end soon.

Re: The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?

#30

Its a shame that your standard futurologist always the most fancyful. Talks of exponentials unabated by physics or social problems. As soon as AI starts to "properly" affect the economy, it will cause huge unemployment. Most of the financial world is based on an economy with people spending cash. If they are unemployed, there is no cash. Financing works because banks "print" money, that is, they make up money and loa…

That's actually my favourite answer to the Fermi paradox: when AI and robot development becomes sufficiently advanced and concentrated in the hands of a few, then the economy will collapse completely as everyone will be out of jobs, leading ultimately to AIs and robots out of a job - they only matter if there are still people buying services from them. People then return to sustenance farming, with a highly reduced population. There will be self-maintained robots doing irrelevant work, but people will go back to farming and a bit of trading. Only if AI and robot ownership would be in the hands of the masses I'd expect a different long term outcome.
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