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What are people doing? Live-ish estimates based on global population dynamics

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Re: What are people doing? Live-ish estimates based on global population dynamics

#54

Post by io84 »

Great execution. Interesting to think about the peaks and troughs of global activity.

The Sleep numbers make a big claim: Right after Europe and West Africa have woken up (i.e. now) it says only 350 million people (4.25%) are sleeping. It's 01:08 in Anchorage and 06:08 in Recife. Over 1 billion people live in the Americas between these two time zones. Seems implausible that only a third of them are sleeping?

Re: What are people doing? Live-ish estimates based on global population dynamics

#55

Post by theelous3 »

io84 wrote: post #54

Great execution. Interesting to think about the peaks and troughs of global activity. The Sleep numbers make a big claim: Right after Europe and West Africa have woken up (i.e. now) it says only 350 million people (4.25%) are sleeping. It's 01:08 in Anchorage and 06:08 in Recife. Over 1 billion people live in the Americas between these two time zones. Seems implausible that only a third of them are sleeping?

I think this is just going off sunrise and set +- some estimate. Which does not work as well the farther from the equator you get. It's light for hours up here before you wake, and we sleep like 2-4 hours after sunset.

Re: What are people doing? Live-ish estimates based on global population dynamics

#56

Post by ides_dev »

avvt4avaw wrote: post #45
avvt4avaw wrote: post #44

Why do the estimated births/deaths per second counters have so much flicker? Surely you don't actually believe that the expected number of births/deaths per second fluctuates at 1dp precision multiple times per second?

> The continuously updating global population counter is based on current aggregate birth and death rates (approximating values such as those from the U.S. Census Bureau International Database or UN DESA). The "live" births and deaths per second are statistically generated fluctuations around these averages to enhance the dynamic feel. Ok, so you added high-frequency random noise to the estimated averages to make it…

It would be interesting if it could fluctuate depending on birth rates at different times of day in different countries. That way, it could at least have a bit of dynamism if, for example, India had the highest global birthrate and most births there occured during daylight hours.

Re: What are people doing? Live-ish estimates based on global population dynamics

#57

Post by ides_dev »

satellite2 wrote: post #43

Intimacy being almost the exact same number as warfare is pretty sad. On a more joyous note, it's really neat projet, thanks.

I thought the same thing. I also found it surprising that the number of people on a smoking break was quite a bit higher than either of those - I wonder how many transition from intimacy to smoke break :D

Re: What are people doing? Live-ish estimates based on global population dynamics

#60

Post by oytis »

jl6 wrote: post #42
derektank wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Club for Rome estimates that global population will peak at just below 9 billion by the middle of the century and then begin a sharp decline, ending at under 7 billion by 2100. This is really bad if your country's pension and welfare system assumes a certain ratio of people will be in the labor force, relative to the number of old and retired people, as most developed countries do. A declining birth rate is much…

Maybe time to fix the ponzi approach to pensions and welfare instead of continuing to assume unlimited population growth on a finite planet. Edit: it’s not that I don’t believe the population projections showing a peak later in the century (although I think the Club of Rome one in particular is inaccurate), it’s that these projections are based on there being continued effort to bring birth rates down, hence now not…

What approach would you take without getting rid of the concept of retirement entirely? If people live longer than they can work, they have to rely on the support of those who work in the old age - and the worse the radio of working people to retired people, the harder it is for the society.
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