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What are people doing? Live-ish estimates based on global population dynamics

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Re: What are people doing? Live-ish estimates based on global population dynamics

#42
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A net positive birth rate is still concerning. 8.2 billion people is a lot . All of the world’s problems, from energy sourcing to food production to climate change become harder and harder as the population continues to grow. It’s easy to be complacent in developed countries because birth rates have come way down, probably because of increased wealth and better education/opportunity for women and girls - but this is…

The Club for Rome estimates that global population will peak at just below 9 billion by the middle of the century and then begin a sharp decline, ending at under 7 billion by 2100. This is really bad if your country's pension and welfare system assumes a certain ratio of people will be in the labor force, relative to the number of old and retired people, as most developed countries do. A declining birth rate is much…

Maybe time to fix the ponzi approach to pensions and welfare instead of continuing to assume unlimited population growth on a finite planet.

Edit: it’s not that I don’t believe the population projections showing a peak later in the century (although I think the Club of Rome one in particular is inaccurate), it’s that these projections are based on there being continued effort to bring birth rates down, hence now not being the time for complacency or defunding these efforts.

Re: What are people doing? Live-ish estimates based on global population dynamics

#45

Why do the estimated births/deaths per second counters have so much flicker? Surely you don't actually believe that the expected number of births/deaths per second fluctuates at 1dp precision multiple times per second?

> The continuously updating global population counter is based on current aggregate birth and death rates (approximating values such as those from the U.S. Census Bureau International Database or UN DESA). The "live" births and deaths per second are statistically generated fluctuations around these averages to enhance the dynamic feel.

Ok, so you added high-frequency random noise to the estimated averages to make it feel more realistic. To me, this makes it feel less realistic.

Anyway, don't mean to gripe, this is a cool project!

Re: What are people doing? Live-ish estimates based on global population dynamics

#49

Seeing the population still increase, this must be completely attributed to Africa: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate

There are still some parts of Asia that are below replacement birth rates.
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