Is anyone else shocked by how low the Paid Work and Education bars are? Is there a way to see this for specific countries?
What are people doing? Live-ish estimates based on global population dynamics
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Re: What are people doing? Live-ish estimates based on global population dynamics
#32Compared to my parents, I spent 20x the time parenting (the new normal) and I'm not sure these stats reflect that. Our global birthrate is a unconcerning 2.3 and worldwide restroom use continues apace. Sex is edging out smoking but not by much.
A net positive birth rate is still concerning. 8.2 billion people is a lot. All of the world’s problems, from energy sourcing to food production to climate change become harder and harder as the population continues to grow.
It’s easy to be complacent in developed countries because birth rates have come way down, probably because of increased wealth and better education/opportunity for women and girls - but this is not yet the case in developing countries, and the nature of exponential growth is that if it exists anywhere locally, then it will eventually come to exist globally.
It really doesn’t help to cut aid programmes to places that are most in need of development.
Re: What are people doing? Live-ish estimates based on global population dynamics
#33Is anyone else shocked by how low the Paid Work and Education bars are? Is there a way to see this for specific countries?
Combined they make up about 33% of all activity, which is what you would expect if 100% of people spent every single day doing one of those things for ~8 hours. It's pretty much right in line with what I'd expect, possibly even a bit higher considering small children and retirees.
Re: What are people doing? Live-ish estimates based on global population dynamics
#34Related: I find the simulation and visualization of the same topic (albeit for US only) by DataFlow much more engaging and comprehensible. The project is based on data of a US survey. https://flowingdata.com/2015/12/15/a-day-in-the-life-of-amer...
Pretty entertaining to watch the bubbles change color/activity but be unable to go to their designated area because they're unable to break away from the bulk of their neighbors. Like peer pressure, but really just an artifact of the chosen technology for the visualization
Isn't rl peer pressure also an artifact of the chosen "tech", or in other words - an artifact of perspective
Re: What are people doing? Live-ish estimates based on global population dynamics
#35Could easily extend the idea to zoom in on the map, constraining to various region sizes... The information gets a little "washed out" when you combine all the timezones into one blob.
Re: What are people doing? Live-ish estimates based on global population dynamics
#36Reassuring to know there are 129 million bottoms joining me in bathrooms about now.
Re: What are people doing? Live-ish estimates based on global population dynamics
#37The changelog indicates: > * Fixed "Intimacy" count to always be an even number. The FTX polycule would like a word… Beautiful work!
"What would you do if you had a million dollars Lawrence?"
Re: What are people doing? Live-ish estimates based on global population dynamics
#38I'm surprised at the surface difference between birth and death rate because we're told the aggregate rate of increase is declining. The difference between the two suggests birth outruns death by 2:1 which feels steep for something which will max out in 2050. I realise sub-saharan Africa continues to be high birthrate and is a huge component of world population, but the trend of increased economic activity to lower b…
Wikipedia: "It may take several generations for a change in the total fertility rate to be reflected in birth rate, because the age distribution must reach equilibrium. For example, a population that has recently dropped below replacement-level fertility will continue to grow, because the recent high fertility produced large numbers of young couples, who would now be in their childbearing years."
Re: What are people doing? Live-ish estimates based on global population dynamics
#39Compared to my parents, I spent 20x the time parenting (the new normal) and I'm not sure these stats reflect that. Our global birthrate is a unconcerning 2.3 and worldwide restroom use continues apace. Sex is edging out smoking but not by much.
A net positive birth rate is still concerning. 8.2 billion people is a lot . All of the world’s problems, from energy sourcing to food production to climate change become harder and harder as the population continues to grow. It’s easy to be complacent in developed countries because birth rates have come way down, probably because of increased wealth and better education/opportunity for women and girls - but this is…
The Club for Rome estimates that global population will peak at just below 9 billion by the middle of the century and then begin a sharp decline, ending at under 7 billion by 2100.
This is really bad if your country's pension and welfare system assumes a certain ratio of people will be in the labor force, relative to the number of old and retired people, as most developed countries do. A declining birth rate is much worse than a slightly positive birth rate.
Re: What are people doing? Live-ish estimates based on global population dynamics
#40Related: I find the simulation and visualization of the same topic (albeit for US only) by DataFlow much more engaging and comprehensible. The project is based on data of a US survey. https://flowingdata.com/2015/12/15/a-day-in-the-life-of-amer...
I think something similar can be done on the world-wide scale with MTUS (Multinational Time Use Study) data [0], with some creative interpolation. From what I gathered, OP's simulation is more of a live Fermi estimate, so it would be interesting to see the same done with greater precision.