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India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

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531–540 of 714 posts

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#531

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depends on internal politics in Pakistan. The army isn't completely united, and the current COAS of Pakistan (Asim Munir) is much more ideological than the former one (Qamar Javed Bajwa), who he pushed out after Bajwa and Imran Khan demoted Munir from the ISI to a (relatively) lowly Corp Commander. Bajwa was working on normalizing relations with India, but himself got undermined by Imran Khan and separately by Asim M…

I heard the ISI is also quasi independent, too.

Historically yes, but the new head of the ISI (Asim Malik) is a close confidant of Asim Munir.

The Balochistan Corp is quasi-independent as well, as they are the primary stakeholder in CPEC.

The Pakistani Armed Forces and Civilian Government have too many veto players, which means any attempt at normalization gets undermined by one of these players trying to maximize their own benefit.

It doesn't help that the Pakistani Armed Forces plays an outsized role in the economy, so individual services and even corps can become business competitors, making internal competition even fiercer.

A similar issue plagued the PLA before Xi era reforms began in 2012, and continue to plague the VPA (but was partially dulled by the SK and UK FTAs) .

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#532
post #325

My compliments to whoever chose the mission name 'Sindoor'. It is very apt for what it implies and signifies in the wake of terror attack at Pahalgam!

India is newlywed?

Sindoor is worn by most women that includes newlyweds. Remember men from all across india were pulled aside for the massacre.

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#533
post #378
post #369

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They were unable to locate the terrorists even after two or three weeks and needed a distraction. This does not make sense. When France attacked Daesh in 2015 after the terrorist attacks in Paris or when the US attacked Afghanistan after 9/11, the objective wasn't to target the exact people who carried out the attacks, but the organization behind the attacks. People can always be found as long as the organization r…

1) Pakistan is a lot less stable right now than 2019 (as is the world). 2) The putative organization is in Pakistan, and likely supported by the military. The biggest threat India is doing (IMO) is threatening the water supply. That is getting everyone in Pakistan’s attention. These strikes are more about managing the local political situation in India, which requires some degree of obvious violent retribution.

"less stable" === yikes

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#534
Neither India nor Pakistan can sustain a conventional war for more than 2 weeks, as they do not have sufficient armaments. Both sides also lack an effective defence against short-range missiles and drones. If the situation deteriorates, it can quickly lead to nuclear war as nonrational actors are present on both sides. I hope this situation does not escalate further. Please note that in a conventional war, economic costs of India would far outweigh those of Pakistan, whose economy is much smaller.

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#536
post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There won't be corroborating reports for months if not years. The public transparency of the Ukrainian battlefield is an anomaly; typically (as in past India-Pakistan incidents) both sides will claim more successes than actually happened and it'll take unbiased parties to figure out what actually happened after both sides release their records. This isn't typically due to malice; it's simply difficult in most cases t…

I think that level of transparency is the new norm. Everybody has mobile phones and you can have a new satelite imaginery every few hours. It's pretty difficult to hide a jet loss, unless it happens at sea.

Even Ukraine is less transparent than popularly believed. Probably less than half of drone strikes are recorded, and the Ukrainian government is effective at keeping some areas blacked out. For example, the Kursk offensive didn't have any public drone footage until after it had stablized. Situations like the current India-Pakistan strikes are particularly difficult, as the OSINT analysts don't have established sources and procedures yet, plus the sources are heavily biased. Ukrainian footage is very biased as well, which doesn't come up frequently in popular discussions. But most people in the West are more inclined to believe Ukrainian reports (which is helped by Ukraine's past general trustworthiness and Russia's untrustworthiness; it's not totally misplaced), but are more likely to give more even weight to reports on both sides of India-Pakistan, which will inevitably be contradictory.

Plane shootdowns are particularly difficult. People have a very limited view of the airspace, and even if a plane is hit by a missile and explodes a couple seconds later, those couple seconds can take the plane out of view. Typical tactics include flying low, popping up for a better view, and delivering weapons as they dive again. The pop up is the most vulnerable part, and where they're most likely to be hit. If someone on the ground hears a jet fly over, looks for it, finds it, sees a missile explode near it, and watches it head towards the ground, they're likely to assume it's been hit and is going down, but it's equally likely that it wasn't hit and is simply returning to a low and safe altitude. Combine this with night or weather and the fact that many of these fights take place in rural areas instead of over cities, and it's very easy for civilians on both sides to claim more kills than were even planes in the air. Even militaries aren't immune from this. They get reports from pilots, who are notorious overreporters of kills. In addition to all the factors people on the ground have also have the fact that theyore being shot at and usually can't actually watch a target hit the ground. Air defense units have the same factors, plus it's not always clear who exactly shot a target down. Both your unit and the one a couple miles away on the other side of the city fired a missile, and both saw the plane go down out of view, and both are likely to claim a kill. Military intelligence should be able to correlate these reports and take into account these known biases but that takes time, and an uncareful spokesperson wanting to get a positive report out to the public may give out unverified reports to the press.

Battlefields are more transparent than ever, but the fog of war hasn't been completely blown away

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#537
post #369
post #61

I believe it's mostly overstated. Pakistan is not economically strong enough to participate in a war, and India is not interested either. However, the Modi government wants to project strength. They were unable to locate the terrorists even after two or three weeks and needed a distraction. So, they targeted some areas in Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK). In response, Pakistan claimed to have shot down four Indian air…

> They were unable to locate the terrorists even after two or three weeks and needed a distraction. This does not make sense. When France attacked Daesh in 2015 after the terrorist attacks in Paris or when the US attacked Afghanistan after 9/11, the objective wasn't to target the exact people who carried out the attacks, but the organization behind the attacks. People can always be found as long as the organization r…

>when the US attacked Afghanistan after 9/11, the objective wasn't to target the exact people who carried out the attacks, but the organization behind the attacks

The mission in Afghanistan was very much to find Bin Laden. It was changed after he escaped.

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#538

The bad news: there is some real potential for escalation due to the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/indias-water... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indus_Waters_Treaty Wasn't there something in the intro of "Mad Max fury road" about water wars?

This is probably the only real dangerous point at the moment. Neither side gains to win much from a conflict, but should India really tamper with the water supply I hope they consult their economists first. Otherwise Pakistan has little choice but instantly commit to a full war. The reason: A significant amount of the food produced in Pakistan directly depends on the water from the river Indus. Even a moderate water…

>Even a moderate water supply reduction would lead to a loss of around 10% of the harvest.

If that's the case then the die is already cast. Early in the conflict, India released too much water on the Chenub too early for the season as a way to punish Pakistan. The quantity of water was such that Pakistan had no choice but to let it run off to the sea. This now means that the upstream Indian reservoir will not have enough water to release during regular season where coordinated releases ensure farmers have an uninterrupted supply during certain critical time periods.

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#539

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Pakistan is not economically strong enough to participate in a war They have nukes. They don't need to be rich to do massive damage. Sure doing so would have terrible consequences, but cooler heads sometimes don't prevail. Or only prevail after much suffering and pain.

More important ,ever since the multipolar great games resumed , they will have customers for nukes. Trump really was the final nail on deterence reliance ..

That may be a long-term problem, but right now it's like worrying about high cholesterol during a knife fight.

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#540
post #300
post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Putin is a particularly deranged type of fascist though, much like Bush, who is okay making the poor calculation of a Ukrainian invasion for the benefit of a wartime economy While Putin is undoubtedly deranged, I think his goals with invading had much more to do with delusions of grandeur and trying to rebuild the Russian/Soviet empire than wanting the "benefit" of a "wartime economy". Russia was drastically unprep…

There's as many theories about why Putin and Kremlin did what they did as there are war analyst books on it. Some of them are more right than others, but at the end of the day, if I'm honest, I'm as confused as I was in 2014. Which is a problem not only for my curiosity: if Western policymakers are as confused as me, it's difficult to craft a good policy: we're effectively playing half-court tennis (to quote Sarah C.…

The beauty of destroying invading armies is you don't need to ask a lot of questions about why there are there.
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