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India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

reuters.com

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Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#21

Post by Karrot_Kream »

Jtsummers wrote: post #5
Animats wrote: post #3

So far, military action is confined to Kashmir. If it gets out of that disputed area, this becomes a major war.

Not just Kashmir. > The Indian government said its forces had struck nine sites in Pakistan and on Pakistan’s side of the disputed Kashmir region. Pakistani military officials said that five places had been hit, in Punjab Province and its part of Kashmir. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/06/world/asia/india-pakistan...

India calls this a targeted strike so for now at least they don't seem to be messaging a strong stance on expanding the strike.

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#22

Post by alephnerd »

digitalPhonix wrote: post #20

From the article: > Pakistan said India hit three sites with missiles, and a military spokesman told Reuters his country shot down five Indian aircraft, a claim not confirmed by India. That’s a huge loss of aircraft! Are there any corroborating reports or more details about the aircraft/shootdown?

Hasn't been confirmed. The Indian government says all pilots are accounted for.

It's the fog of war, and OSINT/couch generalling in the manner that people did with Israel or Ukraine won't work with India and Pakistan.

India has been leveraging the DPDP and national security laws really heavily to remove leaks on social media over the past couple weeks. All major social media platforms have a representative the Indian government coordinates with on information takedowns.

Major reason Musk backed off on his stance about X takedowns with India unlike with Brazil.

And on Pakistan's side, while there have been leaks on social media of troop movements, Pakistan has been implementing China's Great Firewall domestically for the past couple years now. If it was truly deemed critical, Pakistan would most likely lock down their domestic Internet.

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#23

Post by MichaelMoser123 »

The bad news: there is some real potential for escalation due to the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/indias-water...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indus_Waters_Treaty

Wasn't there something in the intro of "Mad Max fury road" about water wars?

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#24

Post by [deleted] »

aaron695 wrote: post #4

When have two nuclear nations done similar? Ignoring proxy wars and technicalities (NK and USA) Kargil War - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kargil_War (1999) India and Pakistan The memeification of the current escalation has been talked about a lot. Memes, and we are talking cat memes not the more theoretical abstractions like 10 page whitepapers that become popular, seem more powerful than people expect. I know India…

[deleted]

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#25

Post by alephnerd »

MichaelMoser123 wrote: post #23

The bad news: there is some real potential for escalation due to the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/indias-water... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indus_Waters_Treaty Wasn't there something in the intro of "Mad Max fury road" about water wars?

Overstated. There isn't any long term locking capabilities on most rivers under the IWT.

The only one India is messing with is the Chenab, and only because it messes up Pakistan's Rice and Sugar exports (major forex provider for Pakistan, and the supply chain is heavily owned by Pakistan's MilBus). Kharif sowing season ends in a couple weeks so messing with the Chenab for 3-4 weeks is enough to destroy the rice harvest in Northeast Punjab.

I recommend reading Ayesha Siddiqui's "Military Inc" to understand the Pakistani army (she was forced into exile because of the book), and "Army and Nation" by Steven Wilkinson to understand India's army.

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#26

Post by breadwinner »

digitalPhonix wrote: post #20

From the article: > Pakistan said India hit three sites with missiles, and a military spokesman told Reuters his country shot down five Indian aircraft, a claim not confirmed by India. That’s a huge loss of aircraft! Are there any corroborating reports or more details about the aircraft/shootdown?

No credible photos have surfaced so far—if the claim were true, some likely would have. It’s possible the Pakistan army is making this statement for domestic audiences, perhaps to deflect pressure to respond.

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#27

Post by MichaelMoser123 »

alephnerd wrote: post #25
MichaelMoser123 wrote: post #23

The bad news: there is some real potential for escalation due to the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/indias-water... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indus_Waters_Treaty Wasn't there something in the intro of "Mad Max fury road" about water wars?

Overstated. There isn't any long term locking capabilities on most rivers under the IWT. The only one India is messing with is the Chenab, and only because it messes up Pakistan's Rice and Sugar exports (major forex provider for Pakistan, and the supply chain is heavily owned by Pakistan's MilBus). Kharif sowing season ends in a couple weeks so messing with the Chenab for 3-4 weeks is enough to destroy the rice harve…

I hope you are right, however:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indus_Waters_Treaty#Suspension

Following the suspension of the treaty, India significantly reduced the flow of water through the Chenab River, which crosses into Pakistan. Pakistani authorities claimed a 90% drop in water supply and accused India of choking the river’s flow. India also initiated new hydroelectric projects and began constructing dams on the western rivers, actions previously constrained under the treaty.[125][126][127]

Pakistan has reportedly warned that any attempt by India to disrupt the flow of water from shared rivers could be considered an act of war, and would attack India with nuclear weapons.[128]

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#28

Post by alephnerd »

ferguess_k wrote: post #17

I hope this cools down into a propagation war after the initial bombing and shooting. Nationalism served, and every one gets what they want, well, except the dead ones...

Depends on internal politics in Pakistan.

The army isn't completely united, and the current COAS of Pakistan (Asim Munir) is much more ideological than the former one (Qamar Javed Bajwa), who he pushed out after Bajwa and Imran Khan demoted Munir from the ISI to a (relatively) lowly Corp Commander.

Bajwa was working on normalizing relations with India, but himself got undermined by Imran Khan and separately by Asim Munir.

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#30

Post by aaron695 »

digitalPhonix wrote: post #20

From the article: > Pakistan said India hit three sites with missiles, and a military spokesman told Reuters his country shot down five Indian aircraft, a claim not confirmed by India. That’s a huge loss of aircraft! Are there any corroborating reports or more details about the aircraft/shootdown?

Planes down confirmed - https://x.com/Doha104p3/status/1919922881892430275

5 planes not yet, but it seems more than one. Indian and Pakistan TV are saying 3. Indian planes crashed in India.

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