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India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

reuters.com

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Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#91

Post by alephnerd »

2Gkashmiri wrote: post #64
alephnerd wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is the halat in Srinagar? My extended family in Jammu Division is sending fairly hectic WhatsApps (seems similar to back in 2013 and 2016). Smh, as if the rainburst a couple weeks ago wasn't bad enough.

Yeah. That area is devastated. Srinagar is fine for now. Schools and colleges have been ordered closed. I will go and check the market in a bit, its still early (08:09) so things are pretty slow anyway.

> That area is devastated

Most of Jammu Division is alright (eg. Kishtwar is relatively quiet). The issues are more prominent towards the ilakeh near the LoC and international border. It's like the bad old days again from what I'm hearing, back when you'd hear about some shelling in pind X killing 2-3 unlucky souls who couldn't make it to a bunker on time.

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#92

Post by dd_xplore »

ivape wrote: post #80
pokstad wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for stating these forecasts so authoritatively. Or maybe we should admit this is uncharted waters and we shouldn't downplay what is possible?

It's also worth pointing out that whatever nonsense the terrorists were on about will now just get reinforced. You could be talking about a more agitated situation with even more terror attacks. This is how bullshit like this escalates. They should have coordinated with Pakistan to run the strikes. I also thought the Ukraine war wasn't "really" going to happen. Humans will human.

Like US co-ordinated with Paxtan to destroy laden? The laden who was hiding near a military base in Paxtan?

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#93

Post by tonyhart7 »

nblgbg wrote: post #61

I believe it's mostly overstated. Pakistan is not economically strong enough to participate in a war, and India is not interested either. However, the Modi government wants to project strength. They were unable to locate the terrorists even after two or three weeks and needed a distraction. So, they targeted some areas in Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK). In response, Pakistan claimed to have shot down four Indian air…

so its saving face attack??? idk about that

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#94

Post by smt88 »

postingawayonhn wrote: post #90
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Pakistan is not economically strong enough to participate in a war, and India is not interested Proxy war between U.S. and China. We’re moving the naval assets that were bombing the Houthis. India seizing Pakistan-administered Kashmir cuts Islamabad off from China.

The US isn't interested in picking sides. Historically it has tried to be friendly with both (though that hasn't always been easy).

Nothing about historical US foreign policy can tell us what the current regime wants or will do.

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#95

Post by alephnerd »

jjk166 wrote: post #70
alephnerd wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

India has a dedicated No First Use Policy, and the former head of India's nuclear command gave an in depth presentation about India, Pakistan, and China's nuclear doctrine at Livermore Labs a couple years ago - https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=OZpIrZvP0Co Most of the conversation about a nuclear war is dated (30-35 years old) because it was based on the 1990 standoff, before which India and Pakistan did not have a hotli…

Policies can be changed, or ignored. The question is would Pakistan trust its neighbor, with whom it has decades of animosity and in this scenario is currently at war, to stick to such a policy? While I personally doubt this particular instance will escalate to nuclear war, or even a major conventional war for that matter, the situation is clearly very dangerous. Doctrine is a terrible indicator of what a country wil…

As I mentioned above, the framing you mentioned is 35 years out of date already. Even Pakistan has a fairly open nuclear doctrine which they have also presented on numerous occasions at Livermore Labs [0]

[0] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9U7erxQUkY

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#96

Post by manishsharan »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #41
MichaelMoser123 wrote: post #23

The bad news: there is some real potential for escalation due to the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/indias-water... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indus_Waters_Treaty Wasn't there something in the intro of "Mad Max fury road" about water wars?

> there is some real potential for escalation due to the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty Neither side wants peace. But neither side wants to commit military manoeuvre that secures strategic aims. So we get this defence sale wet dream of a forever war instead.

[flagged]

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#97

Post by tonyhart7 »

postingawayonhn wrote: post #90
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Pakistan is not economically strong enough to participate in a war, and India is not interested Proxy war between U.S. and China. We’re moving the naval assets that were bombing the Houthis. India seizing Pakistan-administered Kashmir cuts Islamabad off from China.

The US isn't interested in picking sides. Historically it has tried to be friendly with both (though that hasn't always been easy).

"US isn't interested in picking sides"

but you dont want any of them to ally with russia or chinnese, ignoring problem also "problematic"

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#98

Post by energy123 »

alephnerd wrote: post #15
jmclnx wrote: post #12

I have believed and still believe India and Pakistan will engage on the first nuclear war :( I hope it does not happen, but the way things are going in this world, I would not be surprised. In the past, the USSR and the US would try to broker peace between the two countries. I doubt anyone will try now.

India has a dedicated No First Use Policy, and the former head of India's nuclear command gave an in depth presentation about India, Pakistan, and China's nuclear doctrine at Livermore Labs a couple years ago - https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=OZpIrZvP0Co Most of the conversation about a nuclear war is dated (30-35 years old) because it was based on the 1990 standoff, before which India and Pakistan did not have a hotli…

De jure doctrine is one thing. There's also accidents, which become more likely during war especially in semi failed states like Pakistan.

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#99

Post by smt88 »

jmclnx wrote: post #12

I have believed and still believe India and Pakistan will engage on the first nuclear war :( I hope it does not happen, but the way things are going in this world, I would not be surprised. In the past, the USSR and the US would try to broker peace between the two countries. I doubt anyone will try now.

This would be true mutually-assured destruction, so it still seems unlikely.

Pakistan could kill hundreds of millions with a few launches and India could kill everyone in Pakistan.

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#100

Post by JumpCrisscross »

postingawayonhn wrote: post #90
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Pakistan is not economically strong enough to participate in a war, and India is not interested Proxy war between U.S. and China. We’re moving the naval assets that were bombing the Houthis. India seizing Pakistan-administered Kashmir cuts Islamabad off from China.

The US isn't interested in picking sides. Historically it has tried to be friendly with both (though that hasn't always been easy).

> US isn't interested in picking sides. Historically it has tried to be friendly with both

Sure, but one side offers clear benefits over the "ally from hell." (Islamabad, at the very least, has clearly picked a side.)

Also, I'm not arguing what I think will happen. I'm arguing how this could escalate. And the only way I see it doing so is (a) someone bombs the wrong thing or (b) Beijing or Washington see an opportunity to win chips.

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