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India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

reuters.com

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Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#41

Post by JumpCrisscross »

MichaelMoser123 wrote: post #23

The bad news: there is some real potential for escalation due to the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/indias-water... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indus_Waters_Treaty Wasn't there something in the intro of "Mad Max fury road" about water wars?

> there is some real potential for escalation due to the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty

Neither side wants peace. But neither side wants to commit military manoeuvre that secures strategic aims. So we get this defence sale wet dream of a forever war instead.

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#42

Post by alephnerd »

2Gkashmiri wrote: post #32

2gkashmiri reporting live from Srinagar. Ama

How is the halat in Srinagar? My extended family in Jammu Division is sending fairly hectic WhatsApps (seems similar to back in 2013 and 2016). Smh, as if the rainburst a couple weeks ago wasn't bad enough.

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#43

Post by fooker »

alephnerd wrote: post #18
snypher wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is about the only regional power big enough to face off with India, so any move by Pakistan would require Chinese approval lest Pakistan risk China siding with India and getting squished. Edit; asking Mom for permission to beat up your brother?

Overstates the power China has over the Pakistani Military. Pakistan has built close ties with Turkiye as well to provide a redundancy along with spare parts for older American/NATO weaponry, along with some leverage when dealing with the Chinese. If anyone has the power to force both to the negotiating table, it's the UAE and KSA due economic and military ties with India and Pakistan. It was both that negotiated the…

> Overstates the power China has over the Pakistani Military.

China has been building Chinese-only gated company towns in Pakistani military properties for a couple of years now.

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#44

Post by justin66 »

devsda wrote: post #40
ferguess_k wrote: post #17

I hope this cools down into a propagation war after the initial bombing and shooting. Nationalism served, and every one gets what they want, well, except the dead ones...

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Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#46

Post by SanjayMehta »

devsda wrote: post #40
ferguess_k wrote: post #17

I hope this cools down into a propagation war after the initial bombing and shooting. Nationalism served, and every one gets what they want, well, except the dead ones...

[flagged]

[flagged]

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#47

Post by alephnerd »

fooker wrote: post #43
alephnerd wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Overstates the power China has over the Pakistani Military. Pakistan has built close ties with Turkiye as well to provide a redundancy along with spare parts for older American/NATO weaponry, along with some leverage when dealing with the Chinese. If anyone has the power to force both to the negotiating table, it's the UAE and KSA due economic and military ties with India and Pakistan. It was both that negotiated the…

> Overstates the power China has over the Pakistani Military. China has been building Chinese-only gated company towns in Pakistani military properties for a couple of years now.

I know. That's part of CPEC, but similar projects and gated communities have been built by Saudi, Emirati, and Turkish FDI partners in Pakistan as well.

Most of the Chinese investment in PK is in Balochistan which falls under the Balochistan Corps, which is somewhat independent/left to it's own means by Islamabad.

And Pakistan's armed forces relies an equal amount on Turkiye, as a number of Pakistan's critical weapons platforms such as the F-16 require servicing, and Turkiye is the primary source for non-US replacements for NATO parts due to their own attempts at indigenization during the 2010s.

As I mentioned somewhere on HN, I recommend reading Ayesha Siddiqui's research into the Pakistani Armed Forces.

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#48

Post by rcpt »

redwood wrote: post #8
aaron695 wrote: post #4

When have two nuclear nations done similar? Ignoring proxy wars and technicalities (NK and USA) Kargil War - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kargil_War (1999) India and Pakistan The memeification of the current escalation has been talked about a lot. Memes, and we are talking cat memes not the more theoretical abstractions like 10 page whitepapers that become popular, seem more powerful than people expect. I know India…

China nips at India from time to time

But they confine that conflict to only using sticks

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#49

Post by alephnerd »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #41
MichaelMoser123 wrote: post #23

The bad news: there is some real potential for escalation due to the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/indias-water... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indus_Waters_Treaty Wasn't there something in the intro of "Mad Max fury road" about water wars?

> there is some real potential for escalation due to the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty Neither side wants peace. But neither side wants to commit military manoeuvre that secures strategic aims. So we get this defence sale wet dream of a forever war instead.

Pretty much. It isn't worth it for either India or Pakistan at the macro level, and intra-elite factionalism would strike well before anyone could commit to a sustained conflict.

And partners like KSA and UAE would come down hard if this became an extended conflict.

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