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India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

reuters.com

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Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#51

Post by JumpCrisscross »

alephnerd wrote: post #49
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> there is some real potential for escalation due to the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty Neither side wants peace. But neither side wants to commit military manoeuvre that secures strategic aims. So we get this defence sale wet dream of a forever war instead.

Pretty much. It isn't worth it for either India or Pakistan at the macro level, and intra-elite factionalism would strike well before anyone could commit to a sustained conflict. And partners like KSA and UAE would come down hard if this became an extended conflict.

> It isn't worth it for either India or Pakistan at the macro level, and intra-elite factionalism would strike well before anyone could commit to a sustained conflict

Yup. But those same forces conspire against a sustained peace.

> partners like KSA and UAE would come down hard if this became an extended conflict

Zero chance. The problem is China.

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#52

Post by brcmthrowaway »

alephnerd wrote: post #28
ferguess_k wrote: post #17

I hope this cools down into a propagation war after the initial bombing and shooting. Nationalism served, and every one gets what they want, well, except the dead ones...

Depends on internal politics in Pakistan. The army isn't completely united, and the current COAS of Pakistan (Asim Munir) is much more ideological than the former one (Qamar Javed Bajwa), who he pushed out after Bajwa and Imran Khan demoted Munir from the ISI to a (relatively) lowly Corp Commander. Bajwa was working on normalizing relations with India, but himself got undermined by Imran Khan and separately by Asim M…

Who instigated the attack on India?

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#53

Post by alephnerd »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #51
alephnerd wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pretty much. It isn't worth it for either India or Pakistan at the macro level, and intra-elite factionalism would strike well before anyone could commit to a sustained conflict. And partners like KSA and UAE would come down hard if this became an extended conflict.

> It isn't worth it for either India or Pakistan at the macro level, and intra-elite factionalism would strike well before anyone could commit to a sustained conflict Yup. But those same forces conspire against a sustained peace. > partners like KSA and UAE would come down hard if this became an extended conflict Zero chance. The problem is China.

> Zero chance. The problem is China

As I mentioned previously, the China factor is significant but overstated. And I'm fairly hawkish about China.

UAE and KSA have equally as much if not more leverage on Pakistani elite than China. Majority of Pakistan's trade is devoted to the UAE and KSA, and most leadership (military, political, and business) has family and financial relations in both countries.

In addition, the UAE and KSA's sovereign wealth funds own the bulk of Pakistan's core assets like K-Power, PIA, Karachi Port, etc.

Furthermore, the classic Pakistani Army retirement strategy is to become a mid-level officer in the Saudi Land Forces, due to past recruitment.

And finally, a similar amount of Pakistani weapons systems are NATO adjacent from previous American procurement, so Pakistan has leveraged Turkiye as a hedge against being overly dependent on China.

> But those same forces conspire against a sustained peace

On the India side the same people who were negotiating normalization with Bajwa remain. The only change has happened in the last couple years is IK was ousted by Bajwa, and then he was ousted by Munir.

Munir was DG ISI during Balakot, and immediately demoted to Corps Commander in the direct aftermath of the LeT attack (who like other militant orgs have gotten support from the ISI, but not as much from the Army). It's Munir's clique that appears to be trying to use this to solidify their hold within Pakistan.

India and Pakistan can normalize relations, and sincere attempts have been made by both sides, but inter-factional competition amongst Pakistan's elite has undermined it. Pakistan needs a Musharraf again.

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#55

Post by alephnerd »

brcmthrowaway wrote: post #52
alephnerd wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depends on internal politics in Pakistan. The army isn't completely united, and the current COAS of Pakistan (Asim Munir) is much more ideological than the former one (Qamar Javed Bajwa), who he pushed out after Bajwa and Imran Khan demoted Munir from the ISI to a (relatively) lowly Corp Commander. Bajwa was working on normalizing relations with India, but himself got undermined by Imran Khan and separately by Asim M…

Who instigated the attack on India?

LeT, backed by Pakistan.

Yet the Pakistani Army is not uniform either. Bajwa literally attempted to normalize relations with India before he was undermined by Munir.

COASes don't last as long as they used to, and there absolutely is consternation to being pulled into the old days.

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#57

Post by ivape »

nothercastle wrote: post #6
Jtsummers wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not just Kashmir. > The Indian government said its forces had struck nine sites in Pakistan and on Pakistan’s side of the disputed Kashmir region. Pakistani military officials said that five places had been hit, in Punjab Province and its part of Kashmir. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/06/world/asia/india-pakistan...

I don’t think Pakistan will escalate. They are at a severe disadvantage unless china gives them the green light.

Russia will give the green light on one of these countries, do not doubt that.

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#58

Post by mardifoufs »

devsda wrote: post #40
ferguess_k wrote: post #17

I hope this cools down into a propagation war after the initial bombing and shooting. Nationalism served, and every one gets what they want, well, except the dead ones...

[flagged]

Are you implying that Indian nationalism has nothing to do with 1) its conflicts with Pakistan 2) the entire Kashmiri situation ?

Especially with India's current government? Not that Pakistan is any less nationalist, just that claiming that one side is just fighting terror here is a bit crazy. It's ironic since it's a very colonial/British type of rationalization

"My side is peaceful and is just fighting terror while the other side is full of fanatical nationalists" is always a very convenient propaganda tool though so I won't blame you for using it

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#59

Post by aaron695 »

redwood wrote: post #8
aaron695 wrote: post #4

When have two nuclear nations done similar? Ignoring proxy wars and technicalities (NK and USA) Kargil War - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kargil_War (1999) India and Pakistan The memeification of the current escalation has been talked about a lot. Memes, and we are talking cat memes not the more theoretical abstractions like 10 page whitepapers that become popular, seem more powerful than people expect. I know India…

China nips at India from time to time

[dead]

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#60

Post by neom »

I've been thinking recently about how business has been a pretty decent wrapper around wars and killings, arenas, lands, whatever, just: competing for human death. However, I've also been thinking that in late stage capitalism, genuine entrepreneurship is probably increasingly difficult to get into, leading to less genuine opportunity, leading to less business, leading to idle hands, leading to the devils workshop.
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