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The Gang Has a Mid-Life Crisis

chris-martin.org

31–40 of 297 posts

Re: The Gang Has a Mid-Life Crisis

#31

This is bitter gibberish. Advancement has always been made by standing on the shoulders of giants, and that enables small teams to execute different things in different eras. If you can't see what the changes are today you would have been no better off in another time.

There are, however, such things as breakthrough eras and consolidation / comprehension eras.

Physics hasn't been the same since Einstein's era. While breakthroughs have happened, the fundamental reframing of the way we comprehend the world that happened with the one-two punch of the theories of relativity and the experimental evidence for the quantum model have patterned the world in which we now live, but understanding that pattern is the new work.

Similarly, I think a good case can be made that the one-two punch of the implementation of the Internet as a fabric and the web as a killer app is now finished work. While the remaining work is real, valid, and valuable, it is of different kind to the creation of the new pattern; consolidation and comprehension of the pattern is the work of the day, and that's not nearly as glamorous, sexy, or profitable (to reputation or pocketbook).

It's fine for there to be eras of great opportunity and eras of not, so long as we respect which we're in.

(Google is great as a case-study for this concept. The circumstances that birthed Google are now actively suppressed in the ecosystem... Mostly by Google. The positive feedback loop of great-search-breeds-great-search-data that birthed Google doesn't leave room for multiple Googles because human attention and time is finite; this is evidenced by Bing being unable to draw users despite huge monetary investment and just as much technical competence. But they can't draw the users because they aren't already better than Google.

As consequence, two guys in their garage can make something but it won't be a Google-scale search engine. Meanwhile, the small, scrappy search engine is now a huge behemoth with 8.5 billion daily searches, and that amount of real human contact implies real human responsibility... if Google goes offline, people will literally die from lack of access to information, so they can't take the kind of risks they used to be able to.

Young systems have different features than old systems. Young ten-person companies have different behavior than old 100,000-person Fortune 500s. Young people have different wants and capabilities than older people. Making the transition is key. Failure to make the transition causes pain not only to the one failing but to the ones interacting with them).

Re: The Gang Has a Mid-Life Crisis

#32
post #24

I partly disagree, software still sucks and it's a great time to build. The #1 OS is slow and crashes all the time. The #1 email client takes 10s to load on my mother's laptop. Most popular products are slow, buggy, filled with spam, & filled with dark patterns. Enshittification won. FAANGs are the new IBM. Let's build better stuff.

It's not clear if you mean #1 in quality or popularity. I'll assume you mean the latter. Is Windows really that unstable?

I meant popularity. My brand new Win11 laptop freezes or crashes all the time. My relatives laptops too. It's slower every year, even on high-end hardware.

Re: The Gang Has a Mid-Life Crisis

#33

I imagine what these guys miss is the freedom of obscurity. Tech has gone from being ignored to being ridiculed and regulated. Like a company getting more bureaucratic as it scales, it makes sense to professionalize a sector as its influence grows. The problem is that professionalization is often the enemy of innovation. If you care about having the freedom to innovate, this leaves you with three options: be the angr…

Innovation in trad engineering disciplines didn't stop when the industry gained professional guilds and legal status. We have far better buildings, extremely reliable jet planes, high speed rail, the internet...

Re: The Gang Has a Mid-Life Crisis

#34
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Insecurity is often (always?) the driver of achievement. Some sort of deep-seated pathology is basically required to build the empires they have.

Competition, not insecurity drives achievement and people who are very competitive in one skill usually will lack a ton in most other skills.

Point is that competition is fueled by insecurity. If you are happy, truly content, with yourself you will find competing extraordinarily tiresome and unnecessary. Not saying it’s good for society by the way. I think our civilization needs the pathologically insecure to be disruptive and create room for innovation. Related traits are narcissism and psychopathy. Painful, but useful, in small doses.

Musk, Altman, Bezos they are basically caricatures.

Re: The Gang Has a Mid-Life Crisis

#36

I partly disagree, software still sucks and it's a great time to build. The #1 OS is slow and crashes all the time. The #1 email client takes 10s to load on my mother's laptop. Most popular products are slow, buggy, filled with spam, & filled with dark patterns. Enshittification won. FAANGs are the new IBM. Let's build better stuff.

I am kind of with you, I do think the notion of a lone developer not collaborating is going to be the norm with AI. We just don't need to collaborate anymore.

Re: The Gang Has a Mid-Life Crisis

#37

I imagine what these guys miss is the freedom of obscurity. Tech has gone from being ignored to being ridiculed and regulated. Like a company getting more bureaucratic as it scales, it makes sense to professionalize a sector as its influence grows. The problem is that professionalization is often the enemy of innovation. If you care about having the freedom to innovate, this leaves you with three options: be the angr…

I don't think they miss anything. These guys are at the apex of their power and are shaping the world at just about the highest level. This all seems like copium to explain why they're doing stuff the author doesn't like.

Re: The Gang Has a Mid-Life Crisis

#38
Without any hard data about anything, this is just a speculative rant. Go and read my books if you want one of those. But I do agree on one thing: we are lacking a new frontier, a meaningful one. My hope for the years I have left is to see one.

Re: The Gang Has a Mid-Life Crisis

#39

I imagine what these guys miss is the freedom of obscurity. Tech has gone from being ignored to being ridiculed and regulated. Like a company getting more bureaucratic as it scales, it makes sense to professionalize a sector as its influence grows. The problem is that professionalization is often the enemy of innovation. If you care about having the freedom to innovate, this leaves you with three options: be the angr…

Innovation in trad engineering disciplines didn't stop when the industry gained professional guilds and legal status. We have far better buildings, extremely reliable jet planes, high speed rail, the internet...

I disagree. I believe we’ve had far less progress in real world engineering in the past 50 years than the 50+ prior.

Re: The Gang Has a Mid-Life Crisis

#40

This is actually a great characterization and one of the reasons why for example YC has not had a success in the last 10 years. This has caused tech to look more and more like a ponzi scheme with greater and greater promises and yet the actual output is very feeble. Even large companies like Apple have got caught in all this. Imagine what they promised and what they haven't been able to deliver. We need a grand reset…

I think it is from the business side, rather than the software side.

The business side's goal is to obtain a monopoly and extract rent. You can see it in google search getting worse so they can show more ads, you can see it in Apple's app store behavior, pretty much all the examples.

The objective is not to provide a good product that people want to buy, except insofar as that drives adoption towards a monopoly

I have sort of come to that believe anti-trust may be the solution to finding more successes and enabling better products

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