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Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

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Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#571

Post by sanderjd »

krapp wrote: post #560
sanderjd wrote: post #552

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's also no reason that whatever it does look like would be better than that, or even that the "modern democracies" we currently have would actually survive.

I disagree. The biggest destabilizing force in the world right now is the US. The loss of American superpower status will make the world and its democracies more stable practically by definition. You might argue that absent American military hegemony, Russia and China become belligerent. But the US isn't really doing much about either, so that's a moot point. All the world really loses is America's interference in th…

This is essentially a "something must be done, this is something, therefore this must be done" type of argument.

It's very easy, indeed common, for the "something" to be worse than the status quo.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#572

Post by isaacremuant »

watwut wrote: post #555
isaacremuant wrote: post #530

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

It was Trump whobrefused to accept election results, not democrats. And yes, conservatives base their policies and electoral successes on massive amount of lies.

Russiagate.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#573

Post by TylerE »

toast0 wrote: post #429
crote wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ships can be rerouted while in transit. I bet it is extremely unusual for a container ship, but we do live in interesting times.

Cruising speed can also be modulated, easily within some ranges. You might speed up a little if you think you can land cargo before new tariffs, and you may slow if you think tariffs may be reduced if you land later. Staff costs for the vessel are relatively small, so as long as you don't go outside the range of speeds that are fuel efficient, there's flexibility. Some of the tariff increases are so high that they ef…

The tariffs are based on departure not arrival date.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#574

Post by brailsafe »

silisili wrote: post #524
bruce511 wrote: post #506

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not really how markup works. Let's say 1 pay x for a product. Gross markup is say 100%. Do I sell it for 2x. Let's say there's a tariff cost of y. That means the cost price is x + y. I mark that up to 2x + 2y. It's easy to up the price by 2y and disclose the tariff as "z%". But this of course presumes all your expenses remain flat. And they likely don't. As your expenses go up (2nd order effects) that 100% mar…

I'm rather aware of the concept of markup. Marking up itself isn't the problem, it's completely understandable -why- that must exist in most cases. But either way, companies don't like to disclose their landed costs for obvious reason - people will think they're being ripped off. Tariffs are in the news and the percentages are known. If I'm selling a wallet made in China, in the US for $80, and list a tariff line ite…

> Tariffs are in the news and the percentages are known. If I'm selling a wallet made in China, in the US for $80, and list a tariff line item of $2 - people will calculate and easily know that I imported said wallet from China for If they're clever enough to do that math, they're clever enough to infer the result from the quality and fact that it's made in China. The ways of obscuring that would be to have paid more for a higher quality item made in China (make a convincingly costly product), or make it difficult to evaluate the quality in the first place.

But I know you're talking hypotheticals and all. It is maybe worth wondering whether in aggregate it'll become more transparent that the U.S economy is based on adding a negligible amount of value to anything from top to bottom.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#575

Post by fnordpiglet »

sanderjd wrote: post #551
fnordpiglet wrote: post #528

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except I think as long as the “new world order” built around globalized trade networks of interdependence and agreements with dispute arbitration that China and the EU are leaning into was the framework Pax America built and was built to withstand unilateralism. Global organizations built around mutual benefit are ultimately going to win the day here, and it’ll be without American leadership - which will solidify the…

Maybe! I struggle to see why you would feel confident in this outcome.

Mostly because everyone has benefited so much from the world order as it exists that no one really wants to lose it other than some fringe wackos. China definitely is a huge winner in the current world construction, Europe as well. The only losers are those that actively fight it - Russia, North Korea, and Iran. I think very few countries really see global domination through conquest as a legitimate goal, and the domination through trade alliances is more enriching, stabilizing, and easier to maintain. China especially I think has little desire beyond Taiwan and the south China seas as trade dominance allows them all the wealth of empire without the administrative headache of managing the internal affairs of conquest states. It’s better to have nations in debt to you than to own their problems.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#577

Post by mopsi »

freefrog1234 wrote: post #547
Teever wrote: post #315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That isn't the lesson from Russia invading Ukraine. The lesson from Russia invading Ukraine is that the presence of authoritarians anywhere is a threat to democracies everywhere. The kind of people who crush freedom aren't content to just do so within their own borders and will eventually do so to others around them. As such it should be the priority of all democracies to extinguish authoritarians whenever possible.

This is sort of a white man's burden argument. From the Russian perspective, the US promised not to expand NATO eastwards in return for allowing German unification. While Russia was weak, NATO ignored the promise, but miscalculated after Russia strengthened. Ultimately, you need to understand the Russia reasons, and they had been threatening war since 2008 when Bush announced Ukraine could become a NATO member. If yo…

> From the Russian perspective, the US promised not to expand NATO eastwards in return for allowing German unification.

Myth, refuted by many Russians from different backgrounds, including by Gorbachev himself on multiple occasions: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43149963

It is a willful distortion of the so-called 2+4 Treaty from 1990, in which the two German states and the four occupying powers negotiated the terms of reunification. Ultimately, they agreed that only West German military forces would enter East Germany until the withdrawal of Soviet troops, which was to be completed by the end of 1994 at the latest. This is stipulated in Article 4 and Article 5 of the treaty: https://web.archive.org/web/20050222182358/https://usa.usemb...

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#579

Post by tehjoker »

ryandrake wrote: post #281
jillesvangurp wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Empty shelves are just one of the symptoms. The real pain will come from companies having to deal with increased taxes (that's what tariffs are) for Chinese components, decreased exports (counter tariffs, anti US sentiments), etc. and then their follow up to that would be using tools like layoffs, price increases, etc. Some of those companies might have to close doors and go bankrupt. If that happens a lot you get th…

> Worst case all this triggers a recession. Recession is probably the best case scenario. If only we get through this with just a recession! The world's economic inter-dependence is one of the things that have kept World War 3 at bay for decades. Nobody's going to start a hot war with their neighbor when they rely on each other through trading. Russia shows what happens when you economically isolate a country with sa…

I think the more pointed question is: will USA aggression be unchecked if the economies disconnected?

China hasn't invaded anyone. USA is conducting an active genocide in Gaza and the Iraq War wasn't that long ago. I could name so many other incidents of unbridled aggression it boggles the mind.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#580

Post by mcguire »

trhway wrote: post #391
relwin wrote: post #301

Gamers Nexus essentially produced a 3-hr doc on how changing tariffs affect the US computer industry: "The Death of Affordable Computing | Tariffs Impact & Investigation" https://youtu.be/1W_mSOS1Qts?si=pBVt65SMqb1p-Zte . Best part is having a product manager show a spreadsheet of costs and margins and explain in real terms ($$$) what tariffs do to their business.

The retailers need to start showing tariff charge as separate line. People have the right to to see what they voted for. Yesterday Trump frantically called Bezos when Bezos threatened to do it, and Bezos seems to have backed up (probably got some concession for that). Edit: it is also can be treated as a consumer right to know, by analogy with food labeling), what are the major components of the price they are paying…

Amazon reportedly threatened that this morning.

They backed down immediately after Trump (or someone at the Whitehouse) called Bezos.

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