Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week • Hacker News Board

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#551

Post by sanderjd » Wed, Apr 30, 2025, 10:05 PM UTC

fnordpiglet wrote: post #528

sanderjd wrote: post #493

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It definitely isn't better for America or the world. We had a "flatter more multipolar world" during the "long 19th century". Pax Americana is certainly subject to a lot of valid criticism, but it was an even bigger mess before that.

Except I think as long as the “new world order” built around globalized trade networks of interdependence and agreements with dispute arbitration that China and the EU are leaning into was the framework Pax America built and was built to withstand unilateralism. Global organizations built around mutual benefit are ultimately going to win the day here, and it’ll be without American leadership - which will solidify the…

Maybe! I struggle to see why you would feel confident in this outcome.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#552

Post by sanderjd » Wed, Apr 30, 2025, 10:06 PM UTC

krapp wrote: post #539

sanderjd wrote: post #493

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It definitely isn't better for America or the world. We had a "flatter more multipolar world" during the "long 19th century". Pax Americana is certainly subject to a lot of valid criticism, but it was an even bigger mess before that.

We had a flatter more multipolar world primarily run by the Church and imperialist absolute monarchies. There is no reason to assume a world not dominated by American imperialism but primarily made up of modern democracies and republics must revert to a 19th century status quo.

There's also no reason that whatever it does look like would be better than that, or even that the "modern democracies" we currently have would actually survive.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#553

Post by netsharc » Wed, Apr 30, 2025, 10:11 PM UTC

fnordpiglet wrote: post #519

DrillShopper wrote: post #484

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Republicans are the party of Trump. You're going to get nowhere near 20 out of 53 to convict. They will not let him get thrown out of office. If they didn't vote for impeachment in the two times he was impeached in his first term, and if they supported him after January 6th then they're not going to vote for impeachment now. The Republicans under Nixon were the same party in name only, and they did not have the s…

The senate is less the party of Trump as they have to win state wide elections and Trump barely beat Harris. They also tend to have longer tenures that spans presidents. While he is ascendant he can command loyalty, but once his ship is sinking the rats will abandon him faster in the senate than the house. The house takes care of itself with its relatively rapid turnover, making incumbents more likely to stick by him…

It's a party of spineless hypocrites... given the choice of the embarassment, admitting they were wrong, and coming out somewhat ok vs. the choice of supporting a dictatorship that erodes free and fair elections, my pessimism says most Republicans will vote for the latter. As a bonus, they'll get to have Trump-level immunity. Then it'll be a simple email to the businesspeople of the state asking who wants to be an oligarch, start opening your wallets. And for the weekend fun, line up those girls (and boys!) and get grabbin'!

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#554

Post by quickthrowman » Wed, Apr 30, 2025, 10:13 PM UTC

xienze wrote: post #337

quickthrowman wrote: post #324

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This graph of US manufacturing output in gross dollars suggests otherwise: https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/USA/uni... If you could explain why it’s trending to zero when the dollar value of American manufacturing outputs keeps rising, I’d appreciate it. There are plenty of other charts that contradict you on the St Louis Fed FRED website.

> gross dollars So, not inflation adjusted. Also doesn't capture the mix of what's being produced, i.e., a shift towards only manufacturing high value items versus being more broadly diversified and manufacturing things along a range of price points. In other words, a complete hollowing out of our manufacturing base. Your same link shows $1.38T in 1997. Which is $2.77T today. In other words, DOWN in inflation adjuste…

> So, not inflation adjusted.

All dollar values on that chart are adjusted for inflation.

> Also doesn't capture the mix of what's being produced, i.e., a shift towards only manufacturing high value items versus being more broadly diversified and manufacturing things along a range of price points.

The chart does not capture the trend you speak of, assuming it exists.

> In other words, a complete hollowing out of our manufacturing base.

That’s not how I would put it, if you want to look at it through that lens, it’s your right.

I would say we manufacture things higher up the value chain and use the dollars we earn from making that stuff to import cheaper foreign commodities instead of manufacturing them here and using dollars to buy American made clothes and shoes and other commodity items at a much higher price than we can buy them from other countries.

We also export services and receive dollars in return, this is much more lucrative that manufacturing imo.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#555

Post by watwut » Wed, Apr 30, 2025, 10:19 PM UTC

isaacremuant wrote: post #530

atoav wrote: post #490

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Turns out reality itself is a hostile and political concept if your political leadership is incompetent enough.

[flagged]

It was Trump whobrefused to accept election results, not democrats.

And yes, conservatives base their policies and electoral successes on massive amount of lies.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#556

Post by elbasti » Wed, Apr 30, 2025, 10:23 PM UTC

anigbrowl wrote: post #536

elbasti wrote: post #523

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I asked a good friend that runs a multi-billion dollar CPG business that relies on China imports. His answer: > Almost guaranteed. > There are some categories (toys, pet stuff,computer accessories) where HUGE percentages of goods are made in china. Those shelves will be empty as soon as inventory runs out, which will be soon. > Shelves would get re-stocked once tariffs are removed and the ships start sailing again. >…

>GPG business what does that mean

Sorry, it was a typo (now corrected). I meant to type "CPG" (Consumer Packaged Goods). Ie, stuff they sell in supermarket aisles that is not food.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#557

Post by nathan_compton » Wed, Apr 30, 2025, 10:29 PM UTC

rayiner wrote: post #420

nathan_compton wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is so disingenuous a defense of the circus going on right now for so many reasons. First of all, nobody in the current administration would give a shit if somehow China made a deal. The Tariffs would go back down again. The Tariffs are not contingent upon good labor laws in China or anything like that. Like seriously. Yes, the left wants better labor power and yes the left continues to understand that offshoring…

> By all means, we should pursue a humanist trade policy that pressures developing countries to improve labor rules, human rights, democracy, etc. But to characterize this present circumstance as that is ridiculous. But nobody besides Trump is going to do that, because everyone is addicted to the short term boosts of free trade. Obama talked a big game and then in office became a free trader that was pushing TPP befo…

"We have to like Trump throwing a tantrum and fucking everything up because liberal politicians suck." is such an incredibly lame rhetorical thing. We don't have to like it, we don't have to pretend "maybe its good?"

Trump clearly has zero interest in the human rights of people who are not American, and even Americans don't seem to rate too high if they don't support him. Just because liberal politicians did too much free trade we do not have to pretend like this is a good policy or that Trump cares about International Labor.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#558

Post by andrewflnr » Wed, Apr 30, 2025, 10:33 PM UTC

rayiner wrote: post #418

andrewflnr wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If it was only China being tariffed, instead of including all the allies we need to stand against China, you would start to have a point. If they were based on something other than a 1600s child king's understanding of trade balance, maybe focused on particular kinds of manufacturing, or even just explicitly based on morals instead of this fantasy of manufacturing returning to the US, you would have a point. But none…

That might all be true, but Trump is also the only one in decades to move the needle in the direction it needs to go. Even Obama was pushing us in the direction of even more free trade with TPP.

No points for messing up evey single detail, not to mention discrediting the idea with his abominable implementation. It will most likely have the opposite of the (ostensible) intended effect. Most people don't want to make multi-year investments in manufacturing in a country run by a mad king who has already changed the policy multiple times. And again, China is the only part that I can agree is even vaguely in the right direction. Tariffing Europe was profoundly self-defeating.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#559

Post by boringg » Wed, Apr 30, 2025, 10:35 PM UTC

Take8435 wrote: post #486

atonse wrote: post #472

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wow I loved this "What's going on with US Ports" video. Subscribed. I love channels like this. People with a deep understanding that just report facts as they are. I wish more mainstream media did this.

That's the thing. "Mainstream" Media in the US are no longer bound to the fairness doctrine. Thus, we have corporate ownership which steers how a story is written or at all. Independent media beholden only to their viewers (not corporate benefactors) are incentivized to do what you want more effectively.

I mean media was never fair. Started out with corporate interests at heart in the early days - only kicked off fairness in the 60s i believe.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#560

Post by krapp » Wed, Apr 30, 2025, 10:35 PM UTC

sanderjd wrote: post #552

krapp wrote: post #539

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We had a flatter more multipolar world primarily run by the Church and imperialist absolute monarchies. There is no reason to assume a world not dominated by American imperialism but primarily made up of modern democracies and republics must revert to a 19th century status quo.

There's also no reason that whatever it does look like would be better than that, or even that the "modern democracies" we currently have would actually survive.

I disagree. The biggest destabilizing force in the world right now is the US. The loss of American superpower status will make the world and its democracies more stable practically by definition.

You might argue that absent American military hegemony, Russia and China become belligerent. But the US isn't really doing much about either, so that's a moot point. All the world really loses is America's interference in their affairs, which I think the world can do without.