Live data from Hacker News

Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

cnbc.com

421–430 of 672 posts

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#421
post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ships can be rerouted while in transit. I bet it is extremely unusual for a container ship, but we do live in interesting times.

Container ships did get rerouted when that ship got stuck in the Suez Canal.

But that’s “same port, different route” rerouting right? Here you would have to have “different port” rerouting (or some really weird weather making the Pacific intransitable”

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#422

Not too long ago I tried to raise money for a PCB assembly plant in the US, but couldn't raise the funding and got a "real job". Posts like these really make me wish I didn't give up lol

About a year ago I checked out every US manufacturer I could find. Most don't offer any pricing of any kind, strictly 'call for quote'. The ones that did offer pricing either don't want small prototype runs, or charge 5-10x what China does, and with 2-3x lead time, even counting shipping. Only one or two I looked at offered an online quote tool, and none of them came even close to the usability and functionality of P…

> I have no idea how us little guys are supposed to get boards now.

You're not supposed to. It's a backhanded way to quash all competition.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#423
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder if he wants to work in a shoe factory?

The US already makes highly advanced goods like cars using robotic manufacturing. Wouldn't an entrepreneur be able to figure out how to make something as simple as a shoe factory? And wouldn't that also result in fairly high paying union jobs, such as the people to maintain the machines and software?

The question really is if such entrepreneur made such a shoe factory that still employed union labor at fairly high rates of pay, why wouldn't they just install that factory in a place where labor costs less?

If the goal is union jobs at fairly high rates of pay, we can make high-productivity jobs like CVS employee (~$1.2mm revenue per employee IIRC) into good high-paying union jobs by incentivizing CVS employees to unionize.

Even the type of high-value manufacturing present in the US tends to be less productive with labor than Costco (~$30k net profit per employee) or Delta (~$56k net per employee) or ADP (~$84k net). Since our labor pool is decreasing, it is even more critical for Americans to work in high-productivity jobs rather than moving the other direction.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#424
post #33
post #7

This could get really ugly when the shelves start going empty. This may make the toilet paper incident seem quaint in comparison.

Genuine question but how likely is that to happen? The media doesn't seem to be doing a good job articulating what the (likely) real world impact is going to be. I keep hearing how other countries are negotiating but when you look into the details, there is nothing of substance actually happening.

It's already happening for certain products, but we don't see it yet. The shelves lag a couple months behind the actual purchases. For example, you are Walmart and buy a bulk order of something from China. The order processes a couple days later, then it sits and waits to be shipped for days lets say. It gets in the ship and takes 2-3 weeks to get here. Then it takes a couple days to be unloaded. Then it needs to get trucked to the main distribution center. Then it's packaged/processed and shipped to intermediate warehouses. Then from there, shipped to the store, sits for a few days-week then gets put on shelves.

Even worse is that depending on the product, you might not even be able to place an order from the importer because they are completely unable to actually price the things with all of the uncertainty right now. A friend of mine is a hearing device retailer/distributor. He tried to order way more than he usually does a month ago to get ahead of this. The order was denied because they said they have no idea how to price any of it. So he's just going to have to wait an indeterminate amount of time which then makes it impossible for him to plan. He has to jack up his prices to cover future potential price increases and to be able to keep the lights on if they run out of stock.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#426
post #391
post #301

Gamers Nexus essentially produced a 3-hr doc on how changing tariffs affect the US computer industry: "The Death of Affordable Computing | Tariffs Impact & Investigation" https://youtu.be/1W_mSOS1Qts?si=pBVt65SMqb1p-Zte . Best part is having a product manager show a spreadsheet of costs and margins and explain in real terms ($$$) what tariffs do to their business.

The retailers need to start showing tariff charge as separate line. People have the right to to see what they voted for. Yesterday Trump frantically called Bezos when Bezos threatened to do it, and Bezos seems to have backed up (probably got some concession for that). Edit: it is also can be treated as a consumer right to know, by analogy with food labeling), what are the major components of the price they are paying…

We need a browser extension that shows estimated tariffs based on "made in" info on the page.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#427
post #354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The two party system, forced on us by plurality voting, is the reason people feel they don't have a choice. Pick one of two very different sides. If a third candidate tries to enter the race, they harm themselves and the person they are similar to, and they help the opposition. Any form of ranked voting will rid us of this restriction and allow more candidates to run for an office, and allow citizens to vote their tr…

Right. The last serious third-party presidential candidate was Ross Perot in 1992. In terms of political platform and voter appeal he was slightly more similar to the incumbent Republican candidate George H. W. Bush, which probably enabled the Democrat candidate Bill Clinton to win (although it's impossible to know what would have happened if Perot didn't run). Some political analysts claim that Perot entered the rac…

"In 1979 the Iranian regime imprisoned two of Perot's EDS employees. Perot asked Bush, who was then Director of the CIA, to get them out"

Most interesting part of that story is that once the government failed to help he organized and trained his own operation and successfully extracted his employees.

edit: https://www.rossperot.com/life-story/iran-hostage-rescue

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#428
post #391

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The retailers need to start showing tariff charge as separate line. People have the right to to see what they voted for. Yesterday Trump frantically called Bezos when Bezos threatened to do it, and Bezos seems to have backed up (probably got some concession for that). Edit: it is also can be treated as a consumer right to know, by analogy with food labeling), what are the major components of the price they are paying…

Amazon considered it as a separate line, the White House called it un-American, Amazon stopped considering it.

No they didn’t. If anything it was being discussed and most likely only for Amazon Haul, which is not normal Amazon.

That said I wish they would.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#429
post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think two weeks is pretty much the low end of transit time for a container from China to US, so I wouldn't expect needing much modeling within that window.

Ships can be rerouted while in transit. I bet it is extremely unusual for a container ship, but we do live in interesting times.

Cruising speed can also be modulated, easily within some ranges. You might speed up a little if you think you can land cargo before new tariffs, and you may slow if you think tariffs may be reduced if you land later. Staff costs for the vessel are relatively small, so as long as you don't go outside the range of speeds that are fuel efficient, there's flexibility.

Some of the tariff increases are so high that they effectively spoil the cargo; there's no point in bringing it through customs at those prices, and it typically won't make sense to ship it back, and it may not be possible to ship it elsewhere from the port either, so it is most likely to be destroyed at the port. Delaying to see if tariffs go down may be worthwhile for enough of the cargo that it makes sense to slow the whole boat.

Additionally, if demand for shipping is up, going faster allows for more supply, and if demand has slowed, going slower reduces supply.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#430
post #391

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The retailers need to start showing tariff charge as separate line. People have the right to to see what they voted for. Yesterday Trump frantically called Bezos when Bezos threatened to do it, and Bezos seems to have backed up (probably got some concession for that). Edit: it is also can be treated as a consumer right to know, by analogy with food labeling), what are the major components of the price they are paying…

Amazon considered it as a separate line, the White House called it un-American, Amazon stopped considering it.

Source? I did not see this active anywhere, only mentioned.
Post reply on HN