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Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

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241–250 of 672 posts

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#241
post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think two weeks is pretty much the low end of transit time for a container from China to US, so I wouldn't expect needing much modeling within that window.

Ships can be rerouted while in transit. I bet it is extremely unusual for a container ship, but we do live in interesting times.

Container ships did get rerouted when that ship got stuck in the Suez Canal.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#242
post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No but it's presented as the major problem to solve. There are lot larger issues at play and if keeping pork workers buys is the goal, then we should have them load and unload empty boxes /s

I don't think OP was specifically stating we need to save these specific jobs, rather they were pointing out the interconnected nature of the economy. Less importing hurts the workers in those industries. Taking that further, it will hurt businesses near the ports where the workers may have gotten lunch, etc. etc. etc. That's how recessions look at a microeconomic scale.

> rather they were pointing out the interconnected nature of the economy. Less importing hurts the workers in those industries.

Well I agree with that phrasing however the OP said it as:

> to be so cynical [...] that would mean a lot of dockworkers/longshoreman are out of jobs or not working right?

That leads to a different interpretation and sounds like something else than what you said (which I agree with).

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#243
post #233

I'm moving internationally (from China to EU) and the quote is 2.5-3x higher than 3 months ago. Sea freight seems to be inspected at a much higher rate, and they don't recommend it, and air freight is more expensive because of much lower volume overall. Not a good time to ship your stuff. And that's when you think "I'm far away from the US and the madness does not concern me"...

If the quote is higher, doesn't that mean the demand is higher and less empty containers are available? The EU does not have an extreme tariff on most products from china, only some. I guess I'm missing something here.

Begging the question/speaking out of my butt: fewer empty containers may mean they're running fewer ships, not filling up the normal volume.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#244
post #119
post #7

This could get really ugly when the shelves start going empty. This may make the toilet paper incident seem quaint in comparison.

HN should have a feature where you can tag a prediction to come back for review after some period of time.

"Show HN: Automatic HN Prediction Market"

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#245
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FTA: Maybe not empty but less choice and alternatives not necessarily what you're looking for. “I don’t see a complete emptiness on store shelves or online when we’re buying. But if you’re out looking for a blue shirt, you might find 11 purple ones and one blue in a size that’s not yours. So we’ll start seeing less choice on those shelves simply because we’re not getting the variety of goods coming in here based on t…

Honestly I doubt that shelves will be empty. Retailers are ordering less stuff from China because they’re predicting that demand will go down when the price is higher. If retailers were marking stuff up roughly 100% and take the same markup (in absolute terms), everything from China will go up about 70%, and people will simply not be able to afford to buy as much stuff.

No. The price insensitive shoppers will buy everything and the shelves will be empty.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#246
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "empty shelves" discourse is alarmist and honestly kind of annoying. Almost all of the food on the shelves is locally produced or, in the very least, not produced in China. Some foods may disappear or become more expensive but there'll really be no disruption in food supply. This will however affect markets dominated by Chinese goods, particularly clothing. Even here the effects will be somewhat mitigated by exis…

I haven't seen anyone saying that there's going to be no food. All reporting I've seen is that Walmart/Target shelves are going to be empty because of the glut of consumer goods they sell that are manufacture in China, ie, clothing, toys, electronics, etc.

Isn't most clothing made all over asia? As in: some brands will be affected and others will not?

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#247

Not too long ago I tried to raise money for a PCB assembly plant in the US, but couldn't raise the funding and got a "real job". Posts like these really make me wish I didn't give up lol

About a year ago I checked out every US manufacturer I could find. Most don't offer any pricing of any kind, strictly 'call for quote'. The ones that did offer pricing either don't want small prototype runs, or charge 5-10x what China does, and with 2-3x lead time, even counting shipping.

Only one or two I looked at offered an online quote tool, and none of them came even close to the usability and functionality of PCBWay's website. The best one I found was this ridiculously overbuilt system with an embedded 3D engine and one of those shitty 200MB web apps that take 30 seconds to register a click and breaks your back button.

USA is simply not competitive with China on PCBs. For small, cash strapped business, domestic manufacture has never been an option. I expect prices will only go up and up as our entire domestic capacity is absorbed by big corps that can afford the premium. I have no idea how us little guys are supposed to get boards now.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#248

The youtuber 'What's going on with shipping?' has a good description in; it includes pointers to loads of sites with the actual data. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2GgcIuQ4X5k

[flagged]

We all have LLMs available we can feed things through of we want a machine summary and don't want to read ourselves, please don't choke HN with machine generated content.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#249
post #48
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had a conversation with someone who I usually respect, and would say is an intelligent person. He's a trump supporter for the manufacturing support. He said, "It's just not that hard to get these factories back to the states. We can get that done this month." The amount of cognitive dissonance and just outright believing the lies is astounding. Trump won't say that states need to build those factories. He'll tell g…

I wonder if he wants to work in a shoe factory?

How is that any different than hourly wage slave jobs now? It's better than being homeless or spending imaginary bucks printed against a debt that will never be paid off

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#250
post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is pretty useful, actually, downvoters. My friends and I were discussing this video yesterday and I was pretty irritated that it took 10 whole minutes to debunk the social media hyperbole. That could have easily been a blog post that I could have skimmed in 1 minute. It's a textbook case of why I tend to dislike video as a format.

An HN user that shares their own summary is providing a unique perspective that only they could offer. That's a great contribution to the site that reinforces community and gets encouraged. An HN user that shares an LLM summary is cluttering the site with the output of a program that anybody could have run. That's just noise that detracts from our community. HN isn't structured to handle programmatic participation th…

Ideally, people posting a video link will include a short summary. HN is heavily text-based and unlike text links, you can't skim/scan and decide whether it's worth to spend 10 mins. It doesn't help that most videos are pretty information-sparse and should properly be a 2-3 min read.

Anyway, I don't mind the downvotes, but it'd be nice if people started including summaries with video links.

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