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Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

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Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#171
post #158

I found out yesterday that the port of LA has a free real-time dashboard ( https://tower.portoptimizer.com/ ) so you can check the stats yourself. While it's interesting that next (week 19) shows a 35% drop YoY, the following week predicts a 25% increase from w19 and "only" 8.7% drop YoY.

Could it be similar to weather forecasts where the further out the forecast goes the more it relies on seasonal averages?

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The feedstock for toilet paper (wood pulp) comes from Canada. https://www.yahoo.com/news/trumps-tariffs-on-canadian-lumber...

Paper is one of the things one should be least worried about. We source chips from Canada because it's marginally cheaper to source it from there. It's not like the US doesn't have a ton of sources of wood pulp. Canada just has bigger cheaper sources (comparing like for like quality). We also burn a lot of "less than ideal for paper" chips for energy rather than feed them into a paper mill, also for marginal cost per…

Please provide citations for these assertions.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#173
post #158

I found out yesterday that the port of LA has a free real-time dashboard ( https://tower.portoptimizer.com/ ) so you can check the stats yourself. While it's interesting that next (week 19) shows a 35% drop YoY, the following week predicts a 25% increase from w19 and "only" 8.7% drop YoY.

That number for w20 will probably change. For example, when https://youtu.be/2GgcIuQ4X5k?t=324 was produced w20 was predicted to be up 0.84% YoY.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#174
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In addition tik-tok/insta are having post after post warning people that the shelves are going to be empty which tends to feedback into itself. If you were going to buy 1 of X normally if you think X may be out for sometime you may end up buying 2-4 of X which will run the shelves out very quickly when 10-15% of purchasers do that unexpectedly. Other people see the shelves emptying and buy more too. Going to be messy…

> All I have to say is imagine if Biden did this, what the news would be saying. Surely you don’t mean to imply the media treated Biden less favorably than Trump?

Aggregate media bias across TV/Radio/Newspapers is interesting because both the direction and scale matters. Of course bias is only part of the story, do an objectively terrible job and you get more negative stories overall.

As a concrete example a great deal of left leaning media was very critical of Biden running for reelection and especially waiting that long to pull out. You almost never see that kind of thing from right leaning media outlets.

So, yes overall media bias favors Trump not because more outlets favor him but because the ones that do heavily favor him. Far left media is simply a more niche market than far right media. Mother Jones for example is well known but only pulls in ~16 million$ / year and even they where critical of Biden.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#175
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think the media really knows what will happen. Trump randomly decides to lift tariffs and any prediction is off.

Or he doesn't lower them randomly, but in response to other countries lowering their own tariffs and other protectionist measures against the US, resulting in the more "balanced" trade which, whether we agree with it or not, has been the goal all along. But yes, whatever the reason, the situation could change too quickly for safe predictions. In 2020, the US economy had recovered from the massive disruptions of the C…

> but in response to other countries lowering their own tariffs and other protectionist measures against the US, resulting in the more "balanced" trade which, whether we agree with it or not, has been the goal all along.

That is just one of the many, often conflicting, goals cited by the administration, and doesn’t make sense on its face: the reason we have a trade deficit with most countries has nothing to do with them tariffing our goods or taking other protectionist measures.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#176
post #92
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because that’s the only reason things are imported?

No but it's presented as the major problem to solve. There are lot larger issues at play and if keeping pork workers buys is the goal, then we should have them load and unload empty boxes /s

I don't think OP was specifically stating we need to save these specific jobs, rather they were pointing out the interconnected nature of the economy. Less importing hurts the workers in those industries. Taking that further, it will hurt businesses near the ports where the workers may have gotten lunch, etc. etc. etc. That's how recessions look at a microeconomic scale.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But, China itself is automating away most of those jobs. It's a stark difference between Chinese and Western—just look at the phraseology we're using, without thinking about it: "out of jobs"; in China's zeitgeist they wouldn't say they lost jobs to technology, they say they "saved 80 percent of manpower" [0]. [0] https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202312/1304443.shtml ( "China’s first self-built fully automated dock en…

Because their centralized government seems to have a purpose other than gaining power and wealth.

What do you think gaining power and wealth looks like? To me the Chinese central government seem hyper-fixated on it and it is working out well for them. Making strategic dual-purpose investments is directly aligned with gaining power and wealth.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#178
post #158

I found out yesterday that the port of LA has a free real-time dashboard ( https://tower.portoptimizer.com/ ) so you can check the stats yourself. While it's interesting that next (week 19) shows a 35% drop YoY, the following week predicts a 25% increase from w19 and "only" 8.7% drop YoY.

Could it be similar to weather forecasts where the further out the forecast goes the more it relies on seasonal averages?

Yeah I was wondering if those models try to smooth those bumps.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#179
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hate to be so cynical these days....but if this is true, that would mean a lot of dockworkers/longshoreman are out of jobs or not working right? Truck drivers, and who knows what other jobs are just not doing anything at this point?

But, China itself is automating away most of those jobs. It's a stark difference between Chinese and Western—just look at the phraseology we're using, without thinking about it: "out of jobs"; in China's zeitgeist they wouldn't say they lost jobs to technology, they say they "saved 80 percent of manpower" [0]. [0] https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202312/1304443.shtml ( "China’s first self-built fully automated dock en…

Pretty sure that the dockworker who is now unemployed, in China or in the US, isn't thinking "we saved 80% of manpower" but is more likely thinking "fuck, I lost my job."

The dock owners, OTOH...

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#180
post #7

This could get really ugly when the shelves start going empty. This may make the toilet paper incident seem quaint in comparison.

> the toilet paper I guess these US manufacturers will need to step it up: Kimberly-Clark, Procter & Gamble, and Georgia-Pacific

I've seen all three begin short-shipping us, especially on cheaper brands.
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