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Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

cnbc.com

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Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#41

Post by perihelions »

thehoff wrote: post #12
pelagic_sky wrote: post #4

Seattle ports are currently empty, will be interesting to see if this holds true . https://seemorerocks.substack.com/p/port-of-seattle-empty-ze...

I hate to be so cynical these days....but if this is true, that would mean a lot of dockworkers/longshoreman are out of jobs or not working right? Truck drivers, and who knows what other jobs are just not doing anything at this point?

But, China itself is automating away most of those jobs. It's a stark difference between Chinese and Western—just look at the phraseology we're using, without thinking about it: "out of jobs"; in China's zeitgeist they wouldn't say they lost jobs to technology, they say they "saved 80 percent of manpower" [0].

[0] https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202312/1304443.shtml ("China’s first self-built fully automated dock enters operation in Qingdao, Shandong Province" (2023))

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#42

Post by 2OEH8eoCRo0 »

SwamyM wrote: post #33
taylodl wrote: post #7

This could get really ugly when the shelves start going empty. This may make the toilet paper incident seem quaint in comparison.

Genuine question but how likely is that to happen? The media doesn't seem to be doing a good job articulating what the (likely) real world impact is going to be. I keep hearing how other countries are negotiating but when you look into the details, there is nothing of substance actually happening.

Well every time they speculate people pounce on them for being wrong, lying, fake news, etc.

We will see!

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#43

Post by Aurornis »

xyst wrote: post #30

What’s the data on exports as well? Some stories of farmers taking massive hits with demand that was only fulfilled by global market.

Depends on the commodity and any reciprocal (actually reciprocal) tariffs that were imposed on US products.

Soybean farmers are hit hard because a lot of their crops went to China. Meanwhile some other exports are basically unaffected right now.

Other countries have generally not been so haphazard in application of tariffs. They don’t want to actively harm their citizens and they try to plan tariffs with more precision and consideration.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#44

Post by XorNot »

thehoff wrote: post #10
taylodl wrote: post #7

This could get really ugly when the shelves start going empty. This may make the toilet paper incident seem quaint in comparison.

FTA: Maybe not empty but less choice and alternatives not necessarily what you're looking for. “I don’t see a complete emptiness on store shelves or online when we’re buying. But if you’re out looking for a blue shirt, you might find 11 purple ones and one blue in a size that’s not yours. So we’ll start seeing less choice on those shelves simply because we’re not getting the variety of goods coming in here based on t…

It takes exactly 1 "bare shelves" post on social media to kick off panic buying which cascades.

In fact it doesn't take much of a change in regular buying habits to cause that it it's all aligned in the same direction.

i.e. a chunk of the toilet paper "shortage" can just be every customer suddenly buying one more pack that day "just to be on the safe side". Your local supermarket isn't expecting that, so the shelves still clear out that day - then the last person snaps a pic for social media....

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#45

Post by duxup »

SwamyM wrote: post #33
taylodl wrote: post #7

This could get really ugly when the shelves start going empty. This may make the toilet paper incident seem quaint in comparison.

Genuine question but how likely is that to happen? The media doesn't seem to be doing a good job articulating what the (likely) real world impact is going to be. I keep hearing how other countries are negotiating but when you look into the details, there is nothing of substance actually happening.

I don’t think the media really knows what will happen. Trump randomly decides to lift tariffs and any prediction is off.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#46

Post by rtkwe »

rad_gruchalski wrote: post #38
bitmasher9 wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except those businesses relay heavily on imported materials. For example, no one is weaving cotton into fabric in the US at any scale.

Well… it’s the best time to start? I guess that’s what the MAGA Sun is hoping for.

Who's going to invest in a business that's only profitable as long as we keep these insane tariff level up and will take several years to spin up? (Plus where are they going to get the machines to do the actual work? Those are being tariffed too!)

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#48

Post by duxup »

Loughla wrote: post #24
duxup wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'll be sad, but amused, when Trump and Co declare that each state should build factories to fill their needs for basic products ... similar to proposals made during the economic collapse days in Venezuela.

I had a conversation with someone who I usually respect, and would say is an intelligent person. He's a trump supporter for the manufacturing support. He said, "It's just not that hard to get these factories back to the states. We can get that done this month." The amount of cognitive dissonance and just outright believing the lies is astounding. Trump won't say that states need to build those factories. He'll tell g…

I wonder if he wants to work in a shoe factory?

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#49

Post by chunky1994 »

SwamyM wrote: post #33
taylodl wrote: post #7

This could get really ugly when the shelves start going empty. This may make the toilet paper incident seem quaint in comparison.

Genuine question but how likely is that to happen? The media doesn't seem to be doing a good job articulating what the (likely) real world impact is going to be. I keep hearing how other countries are negotiating but when you look into the details, there is nothing of substance actually happening.

This is a good discussion around the supply chain issues that will likely be happening: https://youtu.be/-dgHWv-Dh6Q?t=1370

Ryan runs Flexport which is a supply chain company so its from the "source" if you will.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#50

Post by Aurornis »

readthenotes1 wrote: post #13

IMO For impact on normal people's day-to-day life, the suspension of the de minimis rule that allowed boxes under $800 declared value (i.e., construction cost) to be imported with no tariff will have more of an impact than any other recent change. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/what-the-end-of-the-de-...

I think you’re underestimating how many products have inputs that come from China and overestimating how many direct-ship packages the average person receives internationally.
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