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Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

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Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#61
post #7

This could get really ugly when the shelves start going empty. This may make the toilet paper incident seem quaint in comparison.

Trump will back down and lift the teriffs the second there are widespread consequences. He’ll give some excuse, and his supporters will eat it up.

That or he’ll make so many deals with CEOs for political support and financial contributions that we won’t even notice that a few smaller companies went out of business or pulled out of the US.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#62
post #15

What's a good/authoritative site for tracking activity of US ports. This tells a little bit of the story: https://www.drewry.co.uk/supply-chain-advisors/supply-chain-... Longer term trends would be nice.

A few options:

- https://www.bts.gov/freight-indicators

- https://www.marinetraffic.com/

- https://www.vesselfinder.com/

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except those businesses relay heavily on imported materials. For example, no one is weaving cotton into fabric in the US at any scale.

Well… it’s the best time to start? I guess that’s what the MAGA Sun is hoping for.

Cool, so in a year or three the fabric factory would be up and running. Oh wait, we need to first build a factory for the machines we need in the fabric factory...

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#64
post #40
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FTA: Maybe not empty but less choice and alternatives not necessarily what you're looking for. “I don’t see a complete emptiness on store shelves or online when we’re buying. But if you’re out looking for a blue shirt, you might find 11 purple ones and one blue in a size that’s not yours. So we’ll start seeing less choice on those shelves simply because we’re not getting the variety of goods coming in here based on t…

Markets don't work that way. Supply is tuned to demand. When the supply is artificially constrained while the demand remains constant, it further strains already limited supplies, leading to empty shelves and rising prices. This is a fundamental principle of market economics. It's important to understand how these dynamics operate to grasp the broader implications of reduced imports from China.

In addition tik-tok/insta are having post after post warning people that the shelves are going to be empty which tends to feedback into itself.

If you were going to buy 1 of X normally if you think X may be out for sometime you may end up buying 2-4 of X which will run the shelves out very quickly when 10-15% of purchasers do that unexpectedly. Other people see the shelves emptying and buy more too.

Going to be messy.

All I have to say is imagine if Biden did this, what the news would be saying.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#65

IMO For impact on normal people's day-to-day life, the suspension of the de minimis rule that allowed boxes under $800 declared value (i.e., construction cost) to be imported with no tariff will have more of an impact than any other recent change. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/what-the-end-of-the-de-...

I never shopped Temu / Shein but got lots of electronics from AliExpress. My last purchase was a spectrometer, I would never be able to afford it now with tariffs + de minimus gone.

I think this will hurt the DIY / Maker / IoT community hard.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#67
post #59

Seattle ports are currently empty, will be interesting to see if this holds true . https://seemorerocks.substack.com/p/port-of-seattle-empty-ze...

This SS post is fear porn. The Seattle Times article they link to at the bottom of their post gives actual numbers, not just vibes based on what poster can see with their binoculars. "Data from the Marine Exchange of Puget Sound, an industry association, shows the number of arriving container ships berthing at Seattle and Tacoma terminals from April 1 to April 24 was down 12% compared with the same period in 2024." M…

Trump only announced the tariffs on April 2, and the crossing takes weeks, and some traffic will left later than that having gambled that it'd be undone in transit. (Some of it was!)

The stat for "April 1 to April 24" is likely to be different than the stat on April 27th alone. Both may be true.

The port does look pretty empty on https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-122.373/c...

Your stat also includes Tacoma, a close but different port. The Port of Seattle isn't quite empty, but numbers... aren't awesome.

https://www.king5.com/article/news/verify/what-we-can-verify...

> Northwest Seaport Alliance Port of Seattle Commissioner, Ryan Calkins, said the future does not look as good. "The last forecast I saw was forecasting out over the next three months, and each month was forecasted to be down around 25% per month,” Calkins said. The Seaport Alliance said some ships are coming in with less cargo than anticipated. In some cases, it is 30% lower.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#68
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hate to be so cynical these days....but if this is true, that would mean a lot of dockworkers/longshoreman are out of jobs or not working right? Truck drivers, and who knows what other jobs are just not doing anything at this point?

But, China itself is automating away most of those jobs. It's a stark difference between Chinese and Western—just look at the phraseology we're using, without thinking about it: "out of jobs"; in China's zeitgeist they wouldn't say they lost jobs to technology, they say they "saved 80 percent of manpower" [0]. [0] https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202312/1304443.shtml ( "China’s first self-built fully automated dock en…

Because their centralized government seems to have a purpose other than gaining power and wealth.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#70
Knowing someone who imports from China, there are ways around tariffs

https://harris-sliwoski.com/chinalawblog/the-guide-for-legal...

https://www.npr.org/2025/03/07/nx-s1-5318785/tariff-dodging-...

Shady ways as well https://www.voanews.com/a/as-us-tariffs-expand-chinese-firms...

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