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ICE Deports 3 U.S. Citizen Children Held Incommunicado Prior to the Deportation

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Re: ICE Deports 3 U.S. Citizen Children Held Incommunicado Prior to the Deportation

#781

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wages are too low to incentivize investment in automating these jobs, precisely because of illegal immigration.

The jobs that don't require a delicate hand are to a large degree already automated. But the robots are not up to the delicate stuff.

>But the robots are not up to the delicate stuff.

Robots did my dad's knee replacement surgery. I don't think this argument holds water anymore. Maybe if you make your claim more precise: delicate + scale. But, if that's the case, the scale problem is solved with money.

Re: ICE Deports 3 U.S. Citizen Children Held Incommunicado Prior to the Deportation

#782

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w32389/w323...

I skimmed this and read a few sections closely. Most econometric papers spend too much time rambling on about stuff that most people who actually seek out and read these things already know. Anyway, +2.6% in wages for non-college educated natives, over 20 years, is not a ringing endorsement. I honestly doubt anyone would notice this, and over two decades that's just noise, frankly. If I'm understanding one of the cen…

The +2.6% is hourly pay, not extra hours; it’s the difference between flat wages and one more year of raises. Every credible quasi-experiment, from Denmark’s refugee lottery to U.S. enforcement crackdowns, confirms that more immigrants leave natives at least as well paid, often better off, because firms invest, prices fall and natives climb the job ladder. Shift-share IVs have been combed over by three separate methodological papers and pass; drop them and refugee lotteries STILL give you the same answer. UK stagnation is a productivity story (zoning, anyone?), not an immigration one. So unless you have a better identification strategy that overturns all of these results, the weight of the evidence says immigration grows the pie, and natives get a slice (if you can't believe any synergy than at least just bearing a smaller share of defense spending).

I'm also going to flip it around for a second. As I said with the Mariel boatlift study, where a 7% increase in the labor force yielded more or less no impacts on hyperlocal labor force, even considering (possible? I know little havana right now is mostly spanish but idk what it was back then) language and skills barriers. How do you explain that? That is the most short term of local supply shocks with basically no short term employment or wage impact. Thirty-five years of re-checks (Card 1990 → Borjas 2015 → Clemens-Hunt 2019 → Peri-Yasenov 2019 → Lewis et al.) still show more or less zero effect on native wages or jobs (once you fix compositional glitches in Borjas’s sample). If a shock that extreme can’t push wages down, the `more workers = lower pay` story is busted.

Re: ICE Deports 3 U.S. Citizen Children Held Incommunicado Prior to the Deportation

#783

Feels like this conversation is full of people getting hung up on arguing the technicalities and exact phrasing of this situation. Is that really important to the broader conversation?

What’s the conversation? Separating kids from parents or deporting them with parents because we don’t want them to be separate? There is no question about breaking the law by parents. Question is do you let children be with their mothers(who apparently asked to do so) or no. As someone who came legally to Canada and went through thorough screening of 4 years before coming I just don’t get how people are ok with “chea…

I came to this country as an immigrant and gained my citizenship while going through the appropriate legal channels. I have zero fear of being rounded up in the current political climate.

The reason? I’m a white guy from Germany.

The entire process was easy for me. No one ever questions where I’m from because I’m white, have a white collar job, and speak fluent English. That seems enough to be enough for any fellow American to not consider me a “foreigner”.

If everything else about me was the same except I had darker skin and an accent I would be extremely scared right now that I could get rounded up based on nothing more than someone’s vibes of me.

Re: ICE Deports 3 U.S. Citizen Children Held Incommunicado Prior to the Deportation

#784

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I skimmed this and read a few sections closely. Most econometric papers spend too much time rambling on about stuff that most people who actually seek out and read these things already know. Anyway, +2.6% in wages for non-college educated natives, over 20 years, is not a ringing endorsement. I honestly doubt anyone would notice this, and over two decades that's just noise, frankly. If I'm understanding one of the cen…

The +2.6% is hourly pay, not extra hours; it’s the difference between flat wages and one more year of raises. Every credible quasi-experiment, from Denmark’s refugee lottery to U.S. enforcement crackdowns, confirms that more immigrants leave natives at least as well paid, often better off, because firms invest, prices fall and natives climb the job ladder. Shift-share IVs have been combed over by three separate metho…

Yeah I got that part, maybe you're misreading. You seem to be interested in advertising that you've read all this stuff, which is great, a lot of people have. But you aren't really addressing the problem statement, so I'll state it clearly: no one gives a shit about a 2.6% hourly wage increase over 20 years. They don't care because immigration comes with a bunch of other externalities, that are very near term, that academics deliberately remove from their models. "Natives get a slice ... of 1.7-2.6% ... over the course of 20 years" is not a convincing argument, which is why most of the quantitative debate about immigration is largely academic. If the benefits were so obvious we wouldn't need a team of nerds to tell us that, well, actually your hourly wages do go up ... eventually. Insofar as you care about some sort of policy outcome here, you are going to have to figure out a different way to frame this.

I'm not familiar with zoning laws in the UK to comment, so, sure. Maybe a byzantine zoning bureaucracy is the problem there, that does ring distinctly "British" to me.

I haven't read the Mariel study, and honestly I don't really have any interest in it because the underlying story is that Cubans just replicated their own economic structures in a hyper-contained locality, with significant ethnic solidarity given a shared history of hardship. Again, there's qualitative aspects to this that economists - especially the econometricaly inclined - struggle with.

Re: ICE Deports 3 U.S. Citizen Children Held Incommunicado Prior to the Deportation

#785

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I strongly disagree with your framing. Yes, policies can have unintended consequences and immigration policy in particular is a minefield of obvious solutions having terrible results... But that's not what we're talking about. When OP says "I was for wide-scale deportations until I saw people I like being deported", it's not a case of unintended consequences, it's a case of "When I voted for the leopard party I didn'…

> When I voted for the leopard party I didn't think the leopards would eat the faces of people I like This isn't a good-faith interpretation of their comment. There are plenty of illegal immigrants with a criminal record. Trump's pitch was to deport them. There was also a pitch that strongly hinted at deporting basically anyone who isn't white, and I think this appealed to the racist fifth of Americans [1], but plent…

Presumably, to have a criminal record, the authorities would have to apprehend the individual in question. Why wouldn’t the individual be deported then and there, if they immigrated illegally?

Re: ICE Deports 3 U.S. Citizen Children Held Incommunicado Prior to the Deportation

#786
post #482

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A dad of a kid was literally fighting for the kid to stay. He is an American. I read about one case and that was the situation. Maybe stop making hypotheticals designed to excuse what happened and fake concerns. There was no attempt to keep family together oe do right by the kids.

> dad of a kid was literally fighting for the kid to stay. He is an American Are you saying he's figuratively American, or that the father is a U.S. citizen. Because VML's petition for writ of habeas [1] doesn't mention the latter. [1] https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/69940863/1/v-m-l-v-harp...

In the case I have in mind, dad was an American, not to be deported anywhere cause he is an American and engaged in legal figt to keep the kid.

The "kid cant be without a parent" excuse does not work there.

Re: ICE Deports 3 U.S. Citizen Children Held Incommunicado Prior to the Deportation

#787

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There wasn't even a single, popular vacuum robot with less then 7% one star ratings (complaints with valid utter failure). How naïve must one be to expect decent robots for farming. And those very soon? Do you believe in Santa? Or Tesla FSD?

A little difficult to parse your comment, but I think you're calling me naïve for asking the tech community on a message board for the incubator that has backed and does back the some of the most successful tech startups ever to think a little more deeply about how to solve these kinds of problems with technology. Wherein I posit that one of the reasons this tech community seemingly lacks interest - and surely the di…

I'm not against automation. I'm against the interruption of the food supply chain. I don't won't the US to see a lot of pitchfork in use -- and that wouldn't be for farming.

I agree that (slave like) misuse of cheap labor is a problem.

We have a similar issue here. (Bad cleaning, by badly payed, overworked cleaners).

I'm a bit angry because I looked into fixing it by (partially) automating it, but the supply chains are rather bad. The currently available mainstream robots (Dreame, Roborock) are not up to the task (no proper support in Europe). The only interesting option seems to be cleanfix from Switzerland.

To make things short: that anger shouldn't have targeted you, because it boils down to my own current incompetence to fix a real problem. Sorry!

Re: ICE Deports 3 U.S. Citizen Children Held Incommunicado Prior to the Deportation

#788

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Downvoted/flagged trolling. Of course people can think of a better right thing to do in this case.

I know you mean well and want to save the world from trolls, but this is not a hypothetical. I have a friend who is in this exact situation (previous administration, don't get your hopes up for another story for your bandwagon). The parents had temporary asylum. They had kids in the US. Asylum expired and was not renewed. They've been fighting a court battle for several years now because there's an order to deport th…

And people should have an option to do that. That's entirely different than getting kidnapped without any process.

Re: ICE Deports 3 U.S. Citizen Children Held Incommunicado Prior to the Deportation

#789

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Re point (5), the "gang of eight" bill would've been the de facto process (illegally entering, having children or marrying, attempting to bring family over via chain migration) the de jure one via advertising to the rest of the word that violating US immigration law does not matter. We ended up running an experiment over the course of the last 4 years to see what that looks like and the results are grim. >There are s…

Define grim? Surging stock market, reduced inflation? 4% of the global population producing 75% of Nobel prizes ( half of which are immigrants), robust high tech manufacturing? Robust agriculture that was recovered from the first round of tariffs? Increased housing stock stabilizing prices? The Chips act and infrastructure bill that would have accelerated strategic manufacturing growth? Clean energy investments that…

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Re: ICE Deports 3 U.S. Citizen Children Held Incommunicado Prior to the Deportation

#790

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think we should make policy specifically to cater to the part of a voting constituency (the willingly ignorant) who doesn’t know about the factual benefits of a large incoming immigration policy. Policy should be made to cater to factual objective reality, not to make people feel better. Ezra Klein isn’t for the unwashed masses. He’s not even interesting to the average Democrat. His content is specifically fo…

Why is immigration a huge problem. Name one negative effect that actually impacts anyone or anything meaningful.

The mass asylum policy of Biden's term contributed in a significant way to this negative effect: Trump's re-election
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