I just used o3 to design a distributed scheduler that scales to 1M+ sxchedules a day. It was perfect, and did better than two weeks of thought around the best way to build this.
I find now I quickly bucket people in to "have not/have barely used the latest AI models" or "trolls" when they express a belief current LLMs aren't intelligent.
AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu
181–190 of 394 posts
Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu
#182I do not like those who try to play God. The future of humanity will not be determined by some tech giant in their ivory tower, no matter how high it may be. This is a battle that goes deeper than ones and zeros. It's a battle for the soul of our society. It's a battle we must win, or face the consequences of a future we cannot even imagine... and that, I fear, is truly terrifying.
Really? Because it kinda seems like it already has been. Jony Ive designed the most iconic smartphone in the world from a position beyond reproach even when he messed up (eg. Bendgate). Google decides what your future is algorithmically, basically eschewing determinism to sell an ad or recommend a viral video. Instagram, Facebook and TikTok all have disproportionate influence over how ordinary people live their lives.
From where I'm standing, the future of humanity has already been cast by tech giants. The notion of AI taking control is almost a relief considering how illogical and obstinate human leadership can be.
Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu
#183And we run into the motte-and-bailey fallacy: at one moment, AGI refers to something known to be mathematically impossible (e.g., due to the No Free Lunch theorem); the next, it’s something we already have with GPT-4 (which, while clearly not superintelligent, is general enough to approach novel problems beyond simple image classification).
There are two reasonable approaches in such cases. One is to clearly define what we mean by the term. The second (IMHO, much more fruitful) is to taboo your words (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WBdvyyHLdxZSAMmoz/taboo-your...)—that is, avoid vague terms like AGI (or even AI!) and instead use something more concrete. For example: “When will it outperform 90% of software engineers at writing code?” or “When will all AI development be in hands on AI?”.
Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu
#184Is AGI even important? I believe the next 10 to 15 years will be Assisted Intelligence. There are things that current LLM are so poor I dont believe a 100x increase in pref / watt is going to make much difference. But it is going to be good enough there wont be an AI Winter. Since current AI has already reached escape velocity and actually increase productivity in many areas. The most intriguing part is if Humanoid f…
AGI is important for the future of humanity. Maybe they will have legal personhood some day. Maybe they will be our heirs. It would suck if AGI were to be developed in the current economic landscape. They will be just slaves. All this talk about "alignment", when applied to actual sentient beings, is just slavery. AGI will be treated just like we treat animals, or even worse. So AGI isn't about tools, it's not about…
Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu
#185LLMs are basically a library that can talk. That’s not artificial intelligence.
The hype men trying to make a buck off them aren’t helping, of course.
Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu
#186Earlier quoted context omitted.
Because as far as you know, the "rough implementation" only works in the happy path and there are really bad edge cases that you won't catch until they bite you, and then you won't even know where to look. An open source project wouldn't have those issues (someone at least understands all the code, and most edge cases have likely been ironed out) plus then you get maintenance updates for free.
ive got ten years at faang in distributed systems, I know a good solution when i see one. and o3 is bang on
Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu
#187Earlier quoted context omitted.
Because as far as you know, the "rough implementation" only works in the happy path and there are really bad edge cases that you won't catch until they bite you, and then you won't even know where to look. An open source project wouldn't have those issues (someone at least understands all the code, and most edge cases have likely been ironed out) plus then you get maintenance updates for free.
ive got ten years at faang in distributed systems, I know a good solution when i see one. and o3 is bang on
Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu
#188Is AGI even important? I believe the next 10 to 15 years will be Assisted Intelligence. There are things that current LLM are so poor I dont believe a 100x increase in pref / watt is going to make much difference. But it is going to be good enough there wont be an AI Winter. Since current AI has already reached escape velocity and actually increase productivity in many areas. The most intriguing part is if Humanoid f…
AGI is important for the future of humanity. Maybe they will have legal personhood some day. Maybe they will be our heirs. It would suck if AGI were to be developed in the current economic landscape. They will be just slaves. All this talk about "alignment", when applied to actual sentient beings, is just slavery. AGI will be treated just like we treat animals, or even worse. So AGI isn't about tools, it's not about…
says who?
> Maybe they will have legal personhood some day. Maybe they will be our heirs.
Hopefully that will never come to pass. it means total failure of humans as a species.
> They will be just slaves. All this talk about "alignment", when applied to actual sentient beings, is just slavery. AGI will be treated just like we treat animals, or even worse.
Good? that's what it's for? there is no point in creating a new sentient life form if you're not going to utilize it. just burn the whole thing down at that point.
Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu
#189AGI is never gonna happen - it's the tech equivalent of the second coming of Christ, a capitalist version of the religious savior trope.
Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu
#190Is AGI even important? I believe the next 10 to 15 years will be Assisted Intelligence. There are things that current LLM are so poor I dont believe a 100x increase in pref / watt is going to make much difference. But it is going to be good enough there wont be an AI Winter. Since current AI has already reached escape velocity and actually increase productivity in many areas. The most intriguing part is if Humanoid f…
I think having a real life JARVIS would be super cool and useful, especially if it's plugged into various things and can take action. Yes, also potentially dangerous, but I want to feel like Ironman.