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AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

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181–190 of 394 posts

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#181
post #175

I just used o3 to design a distributed scheduler that scales to 1M+ sxchedules a day. It was perfect, and did better than two weeks of thought around the best way to build this.

I find now I quickly bucket people in to "have not/have barely used the latest AI models" or "trolls" when they express a belief current LLMs aren't intelligent.

Call me back when ChatGPT isn't hallucinating half the outputs it gives me.

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#182

I do not like those who try to play God. The future of humanity will not be determined by some tech giant in their ivory tower, no matter how high it may be. This is a battle that goes deeper than ones and zeros. It's a battle for the soul of our society. It's a battle we must win, or face the consequences of a future we cannot even imagine... and that, I fear, is truly terrifying.

> The future of humanity will not be determined by some tech giant in their ivory tower

Really? Because it kinda seems like it already has been. Jony Ive designed the most iconic smartphone in the world from a position beyond reproach even when he messed up (eg. Bendgate). Google decides what your future is algorithmically, basically eschewing determinism to sell an ad or recommend a viral video. Instagram, Facebook and TikTok all have disproportionate influence over how ordinary people live their lives.

From where I'm standing, the future of humanity has already been cast by tech giants. The notion of AI taking control is almost a relief considering how illogical and obstinate human leadership can be.

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#183
My pet peeve: talking about AGI without defining it. There’s no consistent, universally accepted definition. Without that, the discussion may be intellectually entertaining—but ultimately moot.

And we run into the motte-and-bailey fallacy: at one moment, AGI refers to something known to be mathematically impossible (e.g., due to the No Free Lunch theorem); the next, it’s something we already have with GPT-4 (which, while clearly not superintelligent, is general enough to approach novel problems beyond simple image classification).

There are two reasonable approaches in such cases. One is to clearly define what we mean by the term. The second (IMHO, much more fruitful) is to taboo your words (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WBdvyyHLdxZSAMmoz/taboo-your...)—that is, avoid vague terms like AGI (or even AI!) and instead use something more concrete. For example: “When will it outperform 90% of software engineers at writing code?” or “When will all AI development be in hands on AI?”.

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#184
post #24

Is AGI even important? I believe the next 10 to 15 years will be Assisted Intelligence. There are things that current LLM are so poor I dont believe a 100x increase in pref / watt is going to make much difference. But it is going to be good enough there wont be an AI Winter. Since current AI has already reached escape velocity and actually increase productivity in many areas. The most intriguing part is if Humanoid f…

AGI is important for the future of humanity. Maybe they will have legal personhood some day. Maybe they will be our heirs. It would suck if AGI were to be developed in the current economic landscape. They will be just slaves. All this talk about "alignment", when applied to actual sentient beings, is just slavery. AGI will be treated just like we treat animals, or even worse. So AGI isn't about tools, it's not about…

I'm more concerned about the humans in charge of powerful machines who use them to abuse other humans, than ethical concerns about the treatment of machines. The former is a threat today, while the latter can be addressed once this technology is only used for the benefit of all humankind.

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#185

LLMs are basically a library that can talk. That’s not artificial intelligence.

We invented a calculator for language-like things, which is cool, but it’s got a lot of people really mixed up.

The hype men trying to make a buck off them aren’t helping, of course.

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because as far as you know, the "rough implementation" only works in the happy path and there are really bad edge cases that you won't catch until they bite you, and then you won't even know where to look. An open source project wouldn't have those issues (someone at least understands all the code, and most edge cases have likely been ironed out) plus then you get maintenance updates for free.

ive got ten years at faang in distributed systems, I know a good solution when i see one. and o3 is bang on

[deleted]

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because as far as you know, the "rough implementation" only works in the happy path and there are really bad edge cases that you won't catch until they bite you, and then you won't even know where to look. An open source project wouldn't have those issues (someone at least understands all the code, and most edge cases have likely been ironed out) plus then you get maintenance updates for free.

ive got ten years at faang in distributed systems, I know a good solution when i see one. and o3 is bang on

So 10 years at a FANG company, then it’s 15 years in backend at FANG, then 10 years in distributed systems, and then running interviews at some company for 5 years and rising capital as founder in NYC. Cool. Can you share that chat from o3?

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#188
post #24

Is AGI even important? I believe the next 10 to 15 years will be Assisted Intelligence. There are things that current LLM are so poor I dont believe a 100x increase in pref / watt is going to make much difference. But it is going to be good enough there wont be an AI Winter. Since current AI has already reached escape velocity and actually increase productivity in many areas. The most intriguing part is if Humanoid f…

AGI is important for the future of humanity. Maybe they will have legal personhood some day. Maybe they will be our heirs. It would suck if AGI were to be developed in the current economic landscape. They will be just slaves. All this talk about "alignment", when applied to actual sentient beings, is just slavery. AGI will be treated just like we treat animals, or even worse. So AGI isn't about tools, it's not about…

> AGI is important for the future of humanity.

says who?

> Maybe they will have legal personhood some day. Maybe they will be our heirs.

Hopefully that will never come to pass. it means total failure of humans as a species.

> They will be just slaves. All this talk about "alignment", when applied to actual sentient beings, is just slavery. AGI will be treated just like we treat animals, or even worse.

Good? that's what it's for? there is no point in creating a new sentient life form if you're not going to utilize it. just burn the whole thing down at that point.

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#189

AGI is never gonna happen - it's the tech equivalent of the second coming of Christ, a capitalist version of the religious savior trope.

Hey now, on a long enough time line one of these strains of millenarian thinking may eventually get something right.

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#190
post #159
post #24

Is AGI even important? I believe the next 10 to 15 years will be Assisted Intelligence. There are things that current LLM are so poor I dont believe a 100x increase in pref / watt is going to make much difference. But it is going to be good enough there wont be an AI Winter. Since current AI has already reached escape velocity and actually increase productivity in many areas. The most intriguing part is if Humanoid f…

I think having a real life JARVIS would be super cool and useful, especially if it's plugged into various things and can take action. Yes, also potentially dangerous, but I want to feel like Ironman.

Except only Iron Man had JARVIS.
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