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AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

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Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#161

Post by ac29 »

karmakaze wrote: post #97
xnx wrote: post #65

I'll take the "under" on 30 years. Demis Hassabis (who has more credibility than whoever these 3 people are combined) says 5-10 years: https://time.com/7277608/demis-hassabis-interview-time100-20...

That's in line with Ray Kurzweil sticking to his long-held predictions: 2029 for AGI and 2045 for the singularity.

A lot of Kurzweil's predictions are nowhere close to coming correct though.

For example, he thought by 2019 we'd have millions of nanorobots in our blood, fighting disease and improving cognition. As near as I can tell we are not tangibly closer to that than we were when he wrote about it 25 years ago. By 2030, he expected humans to be immortal.

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#162

Post by yibg »

Might as well be 10 - 1000 years. Reality is no one knows how long it'll take to get to AGI, because:

1) No one knows what exactly makes humans "intelligent" and therefore 2) No one knows what it would take to achieve AGI

Go back through history and AI / AGI has been a couple of decades away for several decades now.

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#163

Post by yibg »

dcchambers wrote: post #73
thomasahle wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People will keep improving LLMs, and by the time they are AGI (less than 30 years), you will say, "Well, these are no longer LLMs."

Will LLMs approach something that appears to be AGI? Maybe. Probably. They're already "better" than humans in many use cases. LLMs/GPTs are essentially "just" statistical models. At this point the argument becomes more about philosophy than science. What is "intelligence?" If an LLM can do something truly novel with no human prompting, with no directive other than something it has created for itself - then I guess we…

Isn't the human brain also "just" a big statistical model as far as we know? (very loosely speaking)

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#164

Post by alabastervlog »

ben_w wrote: post #132
kazinator wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So you could stick your own copyright notice on the result, for one thing.

What's the point holding copyright on a new technical solution, to a problem that can be solved by anyone asking an existing AI, trained on last year's internet, independently of your new copyright?

Someone raised the point in another recent HN LLM thread that the primary productivity benefit of LLMs in programing is the copyright laundering.

The argument went that the main reason the now-ancient push for code reuse failed to deliver anything close to its hypothetical maximum benefit was because copyright got in the way. Result: tons and tons of wheel-reinvention, like, to the point that most of what programmers do day to day is reinvent wheels.

LLMs essentially provide fine-grained contextual search of existing code, while also stripping copyright from whatever they find. Ta-da! Problem solved.

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#165

Post by csours »

AstroBen wrote: post #122
csours wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People over-estimate the short term and under-estimate the long term.

Compound growth starting from 0 is... always 0. Current LLMs have 0 general reasoning ability We haven't even taken the first step towards AGI

0 and 0.0001 may be difficult to distinguish.

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#166

Post by awkwardpotato »

anthonypasq wrote: post #134
darod wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

is this because the LLM actually reasoned on a better design or because it found a better design in its "database" scoured from another tenured engineer.

who cares?

Ignoring the copyright issues, credit issues, and any ethical concerns... this approach doesn't work for anything not in the "database", it's not AGI and the tangential experience is barely relevant to the article.

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#167

Post by alabastervlog »

codingwagie wrote: post #101
MisterSandman wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Designing a distributed scheduler is a solved problem, of course an LLM was able to spit out a solution.

as noted elsewhere, all other frontier models failed miserably at this

It is unsurprising that some lossily-compressed-database search programs might be worse for some tasks than other lossily-compressed-database search programs.

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#168

Post by AstroBen »

nextaccountic wrote: post #136
ksec wrote: post #24

Is AGI even important? I believe the next 10 to 15 years will be Assisted Intelligence. There are things that current LLM are so poor I dont believe a 100x increase in pref / watt is going to make much difference. But it is going to be good enough there wont be an AI Winter. Since current AI has already reached escape velocity and actually increase productivity in many areas. The most intriguing part is if Humanoid f…

AGI is important for the future of humanity. Maybe they will have legal personhood some day. Maybe they will be our heirs. It would suck if AGI were to be developed in the current economic landscape. They will be just slaves. All this talk about "alignment", when applied to actual sentient beings, is just slavery. AGI will be treated just like we treat animals, or even worse. So AGI isn't about tools, it's not about…

Why does AGI necessitate having feelings or consciousness, or the ability to suffer? It seems a bit far to be giving future ultra-advanced calculators legal personhood?

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#169

Post by phire »

ksec wrote: post #24

Is AGI even important? I believe the next 10 to 15 years will be Assisted Intelligence. There are things that current LLM are so poor I dont believe a 100x increase in pref / watt is going to make much difference. But it is going to be good enough there wont be an AI Winter. Since current AI has already reached escape velocity and actually increase productivity in many areas. The most intriguing part is if Humanoid f…

Depends on what you mean by “important”. It’s not like it will be a huge loss if we never invent AGI. I suspect we can reach a technology singularity even with limited AI derived from today’s LLMs

But AGI is important in the sense that it have a huge impact on the path humanity takes, hopefully for the better.

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#170

Post by Retric »

AstroBen wrote: post #168
nextaccountic wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AGI is important for the future of humanity. Maybe they will have legal personhood some day. Maybe they will be our heirs. It would suck if AGI were to be developed in the current economic landscape. They will be just slaves. All this talk about "alignment", when applied to actual sentient beings, is just slavery. AGI will be treated just like we treat animals, or even worse. So AGI isn't about tools, it's not about…

Why does AGI necessitate having feelings or consciousness, or the ability to suffer? It seems a bit far to be giving future ultra-advanced calculators legal personhood?

The general part of general intelligence. If they don’t think in those terms there’s an inherent limitation.

Now, something that’s arbitrarily close to AGI but doesn’t care about endlessly working on drudgery etc seems possible, but also a more difficult problem you’d need to be able to build AGI to create.

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