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AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

dwarkesh.com

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Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#31

Post by gallerdude »

fusionadvocate wrote: post #15

Can someone throw some light on this Dwarkesh character? He landed a Zucc podcast pretty early on... how connected is he? Is he an industry plant?

He's awesome.

I listened to Lex Friedman for a long time, and there was a lot of critiques of him (Lex) as an interviewer, but since the guests were amazing, I never really cared.

But after listening to Dwarkesh, my eyes are opened (or maybe my soul). It doesn't matter I've heard of not-many of his guests, because he knows exactly the right questions to ask. He seems to have genuine curiosity for what the guest is saying, and will push back if something doesn't make sense to him. Very much recommend.

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#32

Post by acdha »

tough wrote: post #13
EA-3167 wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel like it's already been pretty well digested and excreted for the most part, now we're into the re-ingestion phase until the bubble bursts.

maybe silicon valley and the world move at basically different rates idk AI is just a speck outside of the HN and SV info-bubbles still early to mass adoption like the smartphone or the internet, mostly nerds playing w it

That doesn’t match what I hear from teachers, academics, or the librarians complaining that they are regularly getting requests for things which don’t exist. Everyone I know who’s been hiring has mentioned spammy applications with telltale LLM droppings, too.

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#34

Post by mprast »

csto12 wrote: post #7
codingwagie wrote: post #3

I just used o3 to design a distributed scheduler that scales to 1M+ sxchedules a day. It was perfect, and did better than two weeks of thought around the best way to build this.

You just asked it to design or implement? If o3 can design it, that means it’s using open source schedulers as reference. Did you think about opening up a few open source projects to see how they were doing things in those two weeks you were designing?

yeah unless you have very specific requirements I think the baseline here is not building/designing it yourself but setting up an off-the-shelf commercial or OSS solution, which I doubt would take two weeks...

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#35

Post by EliRivers »

kadushka wrote: post #25
tough wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't AGI just "general" intelligence as in -like a regular human- turing test kinda deal? aren't you thinking about ASI/ Superintelligence way capable of outdoing humans?

Yes, a general consensus is AGI should be able to perform any task an average human is able to perform. Definitely nothing of Nobel prize level.

A bit poorly named; not really very general. AHI would be a better name.

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#36

Post by aleph_minus_one »

kadushka wrote: post #25
tough wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't AGI just "general" intelligence as in -like a regular human- turing test kinda deal? aren't you thinking about ASI/ Superintelligence way capable of outdoing humans?

Yes, a general consensus is AGI should be able to perform any task an average human is able to perform. Definitely nothing of Nobel prize level.

> Yes, a general consensus is AGI should be able to perform any task an average human is able to perform.

The goalposts are regularly moved so that AI companies and their investors can claim/hype that AGI will be around in a few years. :-)

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#37

Post by csours »

1. LLM interactions can feel real. Projections and psychological mirroring is very real.

2. I believe that AI researchers will require some level of embodiment to demonstrate:

a. ability to understand the physical world.

b. make changes to the physical world.

c. predict the outcome to changes in the physical world.

d. learn from the success or failure of those predictions and update their internal model of the external world.

---

I cannot quickly find proposed tests in this discussion.

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#38

Post by azinman2 »

tough wrote: post #13
EA-3167 wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel like it's already been pretty well digested and excreted for the most part, now we're into the re-ingestion phase until the bubble bursts.

maybe silicon valley and the world move at basically different rates idk AI is just a speck outside of the HN and SV info-bubbles still early to mass adoption like the smartphone or the internet, mostly nerds playing w it

I really disagree. I had a masseuse tell me how he uses ChatGPT, told it a ton of info about himself, and now he uses it for personalized nutrition recommendations. I was in Atlanta over the weekend recently, at a random brunch spot, and overheard some _very_ not SV/tech folks talk about how they use it everyday. Their user growth rate shows this -- you don't hit hundreds of millions of people and have them all be HN/SV info-bubble folks.

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#39

Post by csours »

dcchambers wrote: post #21

And in 30 years it will be another 30 years away. LLMs are so incredibly useful and powerful but they will NEVER be AGI. I actually wonder if the success of (and subsequent obsession with) LLMs is putting true AGI further out of reach. All that these AI companies see are the $$$. When the biggest "AI Research Labs" like OpenAI shifted to product-izing their LLM offerings I think the writing was on the wall that they…

People over-estimate the short term and under-estimate the long term.

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#40

Post by EA-3167 »

aleph_minus_one wrote: post #23
tough wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

maybe silicon valley and the world move at basically different rates idk AI is just a speck outside of the HN and SV info-bubbles still early to mass adoption like the smartphone or the internet, mostly nerds playing w it

> idk AI is just a speck outside of the HN and SV info-bubbles > still early to mass adoption like the smartphone or the internet, mostly nerds playing w it Rather: outside of the HN and SV bubbles, the A"I"s and the fact how one can fall for this kind of hype and dupery is commonly ridiculed.

This is accurate, doubly so for the people who treat it like a religion and fear the coming of their machine god. This, when what we actually have are (admittedly sometimes impressive) next-token predictors that you MUST double-check because they routinely hallucinate.

Then again I remember when people here were convinced that crypto was going to change the world, democratize money, end fiat currency, and that was just the start! Programs of enormous complexity and freedom would run on the blockchain, games and hell even societies would be built on the chain.

A lot of people here are easily blinded by promises of big money coming their way, and there's money in loudly falling for successive hype storms.

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