Doesn't even matter. The capabilities of the AI that's out NOW will take a decade or more to digest.
I feel like it's already been pretty well digested and excreted for the most part, now we're into the re-ingestion phase until the bubble bursts.
AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu
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Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu
#12Would we even recognise it if it arrived? We'd recognise human level intelligence, probably, but that's specialised. What would general intelligence even look like.
We sort of are able to recognize Nobel-worthy breakthroughs
One of the many definitions I have for AGI is being able to create the proofs for the 2030, 2050, 2100, etc Nobel Prizes, today
A sillier one I like is that AGI would output a correct proof that P ≠ NP on day 1
Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu
#13Doesn't even matter. The capabilities of the AI that's out NOW will take a decade or more to digest.
I feel like it's already been pretty well digested and excreted for the most part, now we're into the re-ingestion phase until the bubble bursts.
maybe silicon valley and the world move at basically different rates
idk AI is just a speck outside of the HN and SV info-bubbles
still early to mass adoption like the smartphone or the internet, mostly nerds playing w it
Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu
#14AGI is never gonna happen - it's the tech equivalent of the second coming of Christ, a capitalist version of the religious savior trope.
I guess I am agnostic then.
Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu
#15Can someone throw some light on this Dwarkesh character? He landed a Zucc podcast pretty early on... how connected is he? Is he an industry plant?
Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu
#16Would we even recognise it if it arrived? We'd recognise human level intelligence, probably, but that's specialised. What would general intelligence even look like.
We sort of are able to recognize Nobel-worthy breakthroughs One of the many definitions I have for AGI is being able to create the proofs for the 2030, 2050, 2100, etc Nobel Prizes, today A sillier one I like is that AGI would output a correct proof that P ≠ NP on day 1
Isn't AGI just "general" intelligence as in -like a regular human- turing test kinda deal?
aren't you thinking about ASI/ Superintelligence way capable of outdoing humans?
Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu
#17Would we even recognise it if it arrived? We'd recognise human level intelligence, probably, but that's specialised. What would general intelligence even look like.
you'd be able to give them a novel problem and have them generalize from known concepts to solve it. here's an example:
1 write a specification for a language in natural language
2 write an example program
can you feed 1 into a model and have it produce a compiler for 2 that works as reliably as a classically built one?
I think that's a low bar that hasn't been approached yet. until then I don't see evidence of language models' ability to reason.
Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu
#18LLMs are basically a library that can talk. That’s not artificial intelligence.
Grammar engines. Or value matrix engines.
Everytime I try to work with them I lose more time than I gain. Net loss every time. Immensely frustrating. If i focus it on a small subtask I can gain some time (rough draft of a test). Anything more advanced and its a monumental waste of time.
They are not even good librarians. They fail miserably at cross referencing and contextualizing without constant leading.
Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu
#19Earlier quoted context omitted.
I feel like it's already been pretty well digested and excreted for the most part, now we're into the re-ingestion phase until the bubble bursts.
maybe silicon valley and the world move at basically different rates idk AI is just a speck outside of the HN and SV info-bubbles still early to mass adoption like the smartphone or the internet, mostly nerds playing w it
ChatGPT has 400M weekly users. https://backlinko.com/chatgpt-stats
Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu
#20Doesn't even matter. The capabilities of the AI that's out NOW will take a decade or more to digest.
I feel like it's already been pretty well digested and excreted for the most part, now we're into the re-ingestion phase until the bubble bursts.
I am tech founder, who spends most of my day in my own startup deploying LLM-based tools into my own operations, and I'm maybe 1% of the way through the roadmap I'd like to build with what exists and is possible to do today.