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AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

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Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#61

Post by logicchains »

dingnuts wrote: post #17
EliRivers wrote: post #6

Would we even recognise it if it arrived? We'd recognise human level intelligence, probably, but that's specialised. What would general intelligence even look like.

you'd be able to give them a novel problem and have them generalize from known concepts to solve it. here's an example: 1 write a specification for a language in natural language 2 write an example program can you feed 1 into a model and have it produce a compiler for 2 that works as reliably as a classically built one? I think that's a low bar that hasn't been approached yet. until then I don't see evidence of langu…

You could ask Gemini 2.5 to do that today and it's well within its capabilities, just as long as you also let it write and run unit tests, as a human developer would.

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#62

Post by Tuna-Fish »

EliRivers wrote: post #6

Would we even recognise it if it arrived? We'd recognise human level intelligence, probably, but that's specialised. What would general intelligence even look like.

If/when we will have AGI, we will likely have something fundamentally superhuman very soon after, and that will be very recognizable.

This is the idea of "hard takeoff" -- because the way we can scale computation, there will only ever be a very short time when the AI will be roughly human-level. Even if there are no fundamental breakthroughs, the very least silicon can be ran much faster than meat, and instead of compensating narrower width execution speed like current AI systems do (no AI datacenter is even close to the width of a human brain), you can just spend the money to make your AI system 2x wider and run it at 2x the speed. What would a good engineer (or, a good team of engineers) be able to accomplish if they could have 10 times the workdays in a week that everyone else has?

This is often conflated with the idea that AGI is very imminent. I don't think we are particularly close to that yet. But I do think that if we ever get there, things will get very weird very quickly.

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#63

Post by dicroce »

EA-3167 wrote: post #11
dicroce wrote: post #9

Doesn't even matter. The capabilities of the AI that's out NOW will take a decade or more to digest.

I feel like it's already been pretty well digested and excreted for the most part, now we're into the re-ingestion phase until the bubble bursts.

Not even close. Software can now understand human language... this is going to mean computers can be a lot more places than they ever could. Furthermore, software can now understand the content of images... eventually this will have a wild impact on nearly everything.

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#64

Post by EliRivers »

logicchains wrote: post #45
EliRivers wrote: post #6

Would we even recognise it if it arrived? We'd recognise human level intelligence, probably, but that's specialised. What would general intelligence even look like.

AGI isn't ASI; it's not supposed to be smarter than humans. The people who say AGI is far away are unscientific woo-mongers, because they never give a concrete, empirically measurable definition of AGI. The closest we have is Humanity's Last Exam, which LLMs are already well on the path to acing.

I'd expect it to be generalised, where we (and everything else we've ever met) are specialised. Our intelligence is shaped by our biology and our environment; the limitations on our thinking are themselves concepts the best of us can barely glimpse. Some kind of intelligence that inherently transcends its substrate.

What that would look like, how it would think, the kind of mental considerations it would have, I do not know. I do suspect that declaring something that thinks like us would have "general intelligence" to be a symptom of our limited thinking.

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#66

Post by tough »

umeshunni wrote: post #50
aleph_minus_one wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> idk AI is just a speck outside of the HN and SV info-bubbles > still early to mass adoption like the smartphone or the internet, mostly nerds playing w it Rather: outside of the HN and SV bubbles, the A"I"s and the fact how one can fall for this kind of hype and dupery is commonly ridiculed.

Yeah, I'm old enough to remember all the masses who mocked the Internet and smartphones too.

Im not mocking AI, and while the internet and smartphones fundamentally changed how societies operate, and AI will probably do so to, why the Doomerism? Isn't that how tech works? We invent new tech and use it and so on?

What makes AI fundamentally different than smartphones or the internet? Will it change the world? Probably, already has.

Will it end it as we know it? Probably not?

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#67

Post by kadushka »

tough wrote: post #43
kadushka wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ChatGPT has 400M weekly users. https://backlinko.com/chatgpt-stats

have you wondered how many of these are bots leveraging free chatgpt with proxied vpn IPs? I'm a ChatGPT paying user but I know no one who's not a developer on my personal circles who also is one. maybe im an exeception edit: I guess 400M global users being the US 300M citizens isn't out of scope for such a highly used product amongst a 7B population But social media like instagram or fb feels like had network effect…

Pretty much everyone in high school or college is using them. Also everyone whose job is to produce some kind of content or data analysis. That's already a lot of people.

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#68

Post by logicchains »

Spartan-S63 wrote: post #51
thomasahle wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People will keep improving LLMs, and by the time they are AGI (less than 30 years), you will say, "Well, these are no longer LLMs."

What was the point of this comment? It's confrontational and doesn't add anything to the conversation. If you disagree, you could have just said that, or not commented at all.

The people who go around saying "LLMs aren't intelligent" while refusing to define exactly what they mean by intelligence (and hence not making a meaningful/testable claim) add nothing to the conversation.

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#69

Post by card_zero »

throw7 wrote: post #22

AGI is here today... go have a kid.

Not artificial, but yes, it's unclear what advantage an artificial person has over a natural one, or how it's supposed to gain special insights into fusion reactor design and etc. even if it can think very fast.

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#70

Post by kadushka »

aleph_minus_one wrote: post #36
kadushka wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, a general consensus is AGI should be able to perform any task an average human is able to perform. Definitely nothing of Nobel prize level.

> Yes, a general consensus is AGI should be able to perform any task an average human is able to perform. The goalposts are regularly moved so that AI companies and their investors can claim/hype that AGI will be around in a few years. :-)

I learned the definition I provided back in mid 90s, and it hasn't really changed since then.
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