Thirty years. Just enough time to call it quits and head to Costa Rica.
AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu
41–50 of 394 posts
Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu
#42The new fusion power
That's 20 years away.
It was also 20 years away 30 years ago.
Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu
#43Earlier quoted context omitted.
maybe silicon valley and the world move at basically different rates idk AI is just a speck outside of the HN and SV info-bubbles still early to mass adoption like the smartphone or the internet, mostly nerds playing w it
ChatGPT has 400M weekly users. https://backlinko.com/chatgpt-stats
have you wondered how many of these are bots leveraging free chatgpt with proxied vpn IPs?
I'm a ChatGPT paying user but I know no one who's not a developer on my personal circles who also is one.
maybe im an exeception
edit: I guess 400M global users being the US 300M citizens isn't out of scope for such a highly used product amongst a 7B population
But social media like instagram or fb feels like had network effects going for them making their growth faster
and thus maybe why openai is exploring that idea idk
Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu
#44I just used o3 to design a distributed scheduler that scales to 1M+ sxchedules a day. It was perfect, and did better than two weeks of thought around the best way to build this.
While impressive, I'm not convinced that improved performance on tasks of this nature are indicative of progress toward AGI. Building a scheduler is a well studied problem space. Something like the ARC benchmark is much more indicative of progress toward true AGI, but probably still insufficient.
Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu
#45Would we even recognise it if it arrived? We'd recognise human level intelligence, probably, but that's specialised. What would general intelligence even look like.
AGI isn't ASI; it's not supposed to be smarter than humans. The people who say AGI is far away are unscientific woo-mongers, because they never give a concrete, empirically measurable definition of AGI. The closest we have is Humanity's Last Exam, which LLMs are already well on the path to acing.
Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu
#46Doesn't even matter. The capabilities of the AI that's out NOW will take a decade or more to digest.
I feel like it's already been pretty well digested and excreted for the most part, now we're into the re-ingestion phase until the bubble bursts.
To push this metaphor, I'm very curious to see what happens as new organic training material becomes increasingly rare, and AI is fed nothing but its own excrement. What happens as hallucinations become actual training data? Will Google start citing sources for their AI overviews that were in turn AI-generated? Is this already happening?
I figure this problem is why the billionaires are chasing social media dominance, but even on social media I don't know how they'll differentiate organic content from AI content.
Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu
#47And in 30 years it will be another 30 years away. LLMs are so incredibly useful and powerful but they will NEVER be AGI. I actually wonder if the success of (and subsequent obsession with) LLMs is putting true AGI further out of reach. All that these AI companies see are the $$$. When the biggest "AI Research Labs" like OpenAI shifted to product-izing their LLM offerings I think the writing was on the wall that they…
People will keep improving LLMs, and by the time they are AGI (less than 30 years), you will say, "Well, these are no longer LLMs."
They‘ll get cheaper and less hardware demanding but the quality improvements get smaller and smaller, sometimes hardly noticeable outside benchmarks
Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu
#48I just used o3 to design a distributed scheduler that scales to 1M+ sxchedules a day. It was perfect, and did better than two weeks of thought around the best way to build this.
Designing a distributed scheduler is a solved problem, of course an LLM was able to spit out a solution.
Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu
#49Is AGI even important? I believe the next 10 to 15 years will be Assisted Intelligence. There are things that current LLM are so poor I dont believe a 100x increase in pref / watt is going to make much difference. But it is going to be good enough there wont be an AI Winter. Since current AI has already reached escape velocity and actually increase productivity in many areas. The most intriguing part is if Humanoid f…
AI winter is relative, and it's more about outlook and point of view than actual state of the field.
Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu
#50Earlier quoted context omitted.
maybe silicon valley and the world move at basically different rates idk AI is just a speck outside of the HN and SV info-bubbles still early to mass adoption like the smartphone or the internet, mostly nerds playing w it
> idk AI is just a speck outside of the HN and SV info-bubbles > still early to mass adoption like the smartphone or the internet, mostly nerds playing w it Rather: outside of the HN and SV bubbles, the A"I"s and the fact how one can fall for this kind of hype and dupery is commonly ridiculed.
Yeah, I'm old enough to remember all the masses who mocked the Internet and smartphones too.