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AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

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Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#51

Post by Spartan-S63 »

thomasahle wrote: post #29
dcchambers wrote: post #21

And in 30 years it will be another 30 years away. LLMs are so incredibly useful and powerful but they will NEVER be AGI. I actually wonder if the success of (and subsequent obsession with) LLMs is putting true AGI further out of reach. All that these AI companies see are the $$$. When the biggest "AI Research Labs" like OpenAI shifted to product-izing their LLM offerings I think the writing was on the wall that they…

People will keep improving LLMs, and by the time they are AGI (less than 30 years), you will say, "Well, these are no longer LLMs."

What was the point of this comment? It's confrontational and doesn't add anything to the conversation. If you disagree, you could have just said that, or not commented at all.

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#52

Post by __MatrixMan__ »

thomasahle wrote: post #29
dcchambers wrote: post #21

And in 30 years it will be another 30 years away. LLMs are so incredibly useful and powerful but they will NEVER be AGI. I actually wonder if the success of (and subsequent obsession with) LLMs is putting true AGI further out of reach. All that these AI companies see are the $$$. When the biggest "AI Research Labs" like OpenAI shifted to product-izing their LLM offerings I think the writing was on the wall that they…

People will keep improving LLMs, and by the time they are AGI (less than 30 years), you will say, "Well, these are no longer LLMs."

What the hell is general intelligence anyway? People seem to think it means human-like intelligence, but I can't imagine we have any good reason to believe that our kinds of intelligence constitute all possible kinds of intelligence--which, from the words, must be what "general" intelligence means.

It seems like even if it's possible to achieve GI, artificial or otherwise, you'd never be able to know for sure that thats what you've done. It's not exactly "useful benchmark" material.

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#53

Post by tough »

azinman2 wrote: post #38
tough wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

maybe silicon valley and the world move at basically different rates idk AI is just a speck outside of the HN and SV info-bubbles still early to mass adoption like the smartphone or the internet, mostly nerds playing w it

I really disagree. I had a masseuse tell me how he uses ChatGPT, told it a ton of info about himself, and now he uses it for personalized nutrition recommendations. I was in Atlanta over the weekend recently, at a random brunch spot, and overheard some _very_ not SV/tech folks talk about how they use it everyday. Their user growth rate shows this -- you don't hit hundreds of millions of people and have them all be HN…

I see ChatGPT as the new Google, not the new Nuclear Power Soruce. maybe im naive

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#55

Post by fusionadvocate »

EliRivers wrote: post #6

Would we even recognise it if it arrived? We'd recognise human level intelligence, probably, but that's specialised. What would general intelligence even look like.

AI will face the same limitations we face: availability of information and the non deterministic nature of the world.

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#56

Post by torginus »

mprast wrote: post #34
csto12 wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You just asked it to design or implement? If o3 can design it, that means it’s using open source schedulers as reference. Did you think about opening up a few open source projects to see how they were doing things in those two weeks you were designing?

yeah unless you have very specific requirements I think the baseline here is not building/designing it yourself but setting up an off-the-shelf commercial or OSS solution, which I doubt would take two weeks...

Dunno, in work we wanted to implement a task runner that we could use to periodically queue tasks through a web UI - it would then spin up resources on AWS and track the progress and archive the results.

We looked at the existing solutions, and concluded that customizing them to meet all our requirements would be a giant effort.

Meanwhile I fed the requirement doc into Claude Sonnet, and with about 3 days of prompting and debugging we had a bespoke solution that did exactly what we needed.

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#58

Post by kadushka »

EliRivers wrote: post #35
kadushka wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, a general consensus is AGI should be able to perform any task an average human is able to perform. Definitely nothing of Nobel prize level.

A bit poorly named; not really very general. AHI would be a better name.

Another general consensus is that humans possess general intelligence.

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#59

Post by tough »

acdha wrote: post #32
tough wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

maybe silicon valley and the world move at basically different rates idk AI is just a speck outside of the HN and SV info-bubbles still early to mass adoption like the smartphone or the internet, mostly nerds playing w it

That doesn’t match what I hear from teachers, academics, or the librarians complaining that they are regularly getting requests for things which don’t exist. Everyone I know who’s been hiring has mentioned spammy applications with telltale LLM droppings, too.

I can see how students would be first users of this kinda of tech but am not on those spheres, but I believe you.

As per spammy applications, hasn't always been this the case and now made worse due to the cheapness of -generating- plausible data?

I think ghost-applicants where existent already before AI where consultant companies would pool people to try and get a position on a high paying job and just do consultancy/outsourcing things underneath, many such cases before the advent of AI.

AI just accelerates no?

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#60

Post by 52-6F-62 »

andrewstuart wrote: post #28
52-6F-62 wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Grammar engines. Or value matrix engines. Everytime I try to work with them I lose more time than I gain. Net loss every time. Immensely frustrating. If i focus it on a small subtask I can gain some time (rough draft of a test). Anything more advanced and its a monumental waste of time. They are not even good librarians. They fail miserably at cross referencing and contextualizing without constant leading.

I feel the opposite. LLMs are unbelievably useful for me - never have I had a tool more powerful to assist my brain work. I useLLMs for work and play constantly every day. It pretends to sound like a person and can mimic speech and write and is all around perhaps the greatest wonder created by humanity. It’s still not artificial intelligence though, it’s a talking library.

Fair. For engineering work they have been a terrible drain on me save for the most minor autocomplete. Its recommendations are often deeply flawed or almost totally hallucinated no matter the model. Maybe I am a better software engineer than a “prompt engineer”.

Ive tried to use them as a research assistant in a history project and they have been also quite bad in that respect because of the immense naivety in its approaches.

I couldn’t call them a librarian because librarians are studied and trained in cross referencing material.

They have helped me in some searches but not better than a search engine at a monumentally higher investment cost to the industry.

Then again, I am also speaking as someone who doesn’t like to offload all of my communications to those things. Use it or lose it, eh

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