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Half the men in Seattle are never-married singles, census data shows

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Re: Half the men in Seattle are never-married singles, census data shows

#141
post #129
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've come to a conclusion that the solution may be somewhat radical. If coupling is reduced, it should become the norm for women to have and raise children alone, or at least without a male partner. This increases the burden on women, so at the same time the number of children they must support would have to decrease. This could be achieved technologically, by filtering sperm to remove Y chromosome carrying gametes.…

Perhaps even more interesting in the near-future is the prospect of creating sperm, through technological means, from female cells. The research to do this seems to be close to succeeding - see e.g. https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11601-bone-stem-cells... When researchers perfect this technique for humans, which they almost certainly will eventually, there will be no need for men at all. Women will be able to…

> so in the much longer term we will see the eradication of the Y chromosome - and all the problems that arise from it.

Jeez what did my chromies ever do to you?

Re: Half the men in Seattle are never-married singles, census data shows

#142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Median age of first marriage is ~30 for US men. Based on genealogy I've done, this stat also applies to the late 19th, early 20th centuries.

> > Median age of first marriage is ~30 for US men. > Based on genealogy I've done, this stat also applies to the late 19th, early 20th centuries. It was ~26 in 1890 reached a low of around 22 in the 1950s, and has been trending up since; its been consistently lower for women, though that gap has fluctuated over time and compressed recently to less than 2 years. https://www.bgsu.edu/ncfmr/resources/data/family-profil…

My observations vary by region. ex: I found later first marriages in NYC, earlier in Scranton PA - the latter being marked by a lot of labor-related deaths.

Re: Half the men in Seattle are never-married singles, census data shows

#143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s actually the opposite. A lot of benefits programs are punitive to marriage wrt household income. I know many older couples who stay unmarried because one of them would lose their healthcare or cash transfer benefit, for example. For making healthcare decisions, durable power attorney and a medical proxy should be sufficient for unmarried couples. Not an attorney, talk to one if this is a need you have to validat…

> For making healthcare decisions, durable power attorney and a medical proxy should be sufficient for unmarried couples. Should be isn't is . PoA aren't trivially recognized in the way a marriage is. If you have to interact with more than a couple of services you ought to expect friction. A local medical provider might not be familiar with a PoA but that can be worked out. However, bureaucracies like insurance provi…

I can only recommend having an attorney you can call who will threaten those who won’t respect the legal authority of the documents. People are always the weakest link unfortunately.

Lawyer. Passport. Locksmith. Gun. (A Talk About Risk and Preparedness) [video] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33509164

(I hold POA and medical proxies for people who need someone they can trust to assert their medical decisions and wishes for them when they are unable to)

Re: Half the men in Seattle are never-married singles, census data shows

#144

I live in Seattle now, am married, and have an infant. I find Seattle not friendly towards families at all. The going rate for a daycare here is 3.5k per month for an infant. My wife and I are both ~7%ers? individually and we can barely afford our home (a tall skinny townhouse with no yard) and the cost of 1 baby. Having a family is hard here... Also, I don't find Seattle safe for infants and toddlers, or anybody rea…

As a comparison, full time daycare in Sweden is $100/month for everyone. I think this is one important reason that marriage is not as common, since the society is aligned towards that is should be possible to manage on your own if you absolutely need to. I can't find a proper number but anecdotally I think maybe 50% of first time parents are married in Sweden. And yes obviously this is paid by higher taxes, but seen…

> As a comparison, full time daycare in Sweden is $100/month for everyone.

Obviously $100/month covers a tiny fraction of the total cost of running a childcare service in Sweden. I am curious how much does state pays to cover the rest.

Re: Half the men in Seattle are never-married singles, census data shows

#145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seattle is crazy expensive. It's why I moved to Tacoma half a decade ago. I was already working remotely anyways. Less money to own a 3k sqft home in a nice neighborhood (under $600k), and I can do a 45min or so reverse commute to Seattle for entertainment on weekdays. And Tacoma has a lot of great restaurants, bars, and entertainment itself too. I'm guessing there are lots of similar choices around Seattle. Or were…

I also suspect these are reasons people give because they feel more concrete and defensible. I suspect a more significant but harder to concretize cause is that certain social changes have lead to the majority of young people being unable to form healthy attachments and pair bond. The causes ranging from a high percentage of kids growing up in single parent households and forming avoidant personality styles, social m…

I met my now-wife after smartphones existed but before dating apps were really a thing. I am sympathetic to how hard it is to date nowadays - it seems very weird.

Re: Half the men in Seattle are never-married singles, census data shows

#146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The ~$21/hr minimum wage, 1:2 staffing ratio, etc required by law in Seattle puts a very high floor on the cheapest possible daycare. Just being a bare minimum legal daycare business has a cost floor of at least $2k/month per infant.

1:2 adults:kids ? That's crazy.

> 1:2 adults:kids ? That's crazy.

It sounds crazy, but it only applies in one case: a home-based childcare where the license holder has less two-years of experience and all the children are under 2 years of age and none of them are walking independently. For more experienced primary licensees, and older children, the ratios are higher. [0]

For childcare centers, the ratios are also higher: [1]

For infants (under 1 year) the required ratio is 1:4 with a group size of up to 8, or 1:3 with a group size of 9

For toddlers (under 30 months) the required ratio is 1:7 with a group size of up to 14, or 1:5 with a group size of 15

For preschoolers (under 5 years) the arequired ratio is 1:10 with a group size of up to 20

For school age children the required ratio is 1:15 with a group size of up to 30.

[0] https://app.leg.wa.gov/wac/default.aspx?cite=110-300&full=tr...

[1] https://app.leg.wa.gov/wac/default.aspx?cite=110-300-0356

Re: Half the men in Seattle are never-married singles, census data shows

#147
post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a comparison, full time daycare in Sweden is $100/month for everyone. I think this is one important reason that marriage is not as common, since the society is aligned towards that is should be possible to manage on your own if you absolutely need to. I can't find a proper number but anecdotally I think maybe 50% of first time parents are married in Sweden. And yes obviously this is paid by higher taxes, but seen…

> As a comparison, full time daycare in Sweden is $100/month for everyone. Obviously $100/month covers a tiny fraction of the total cost of running a childcare service in Sweden. I am curious how much does state pays to cover the rest.

The structure of the Swedish society is somewhat different in the sense that most families leave their children at daycare starting around 2 years old.

Unless you have more children, where you are allowed to leave the older child in daycare for a few days per week at that cost.

The economy behind this is rather obvious. It is better for the economy as a whole to leave children with professionals taking care of 4-6 children per teacher and let the (supposedly educated) mom work with what she is or will become specialized in.

Mentioning moms here, but the ambition is to have fathers stay as much home with the children as their mom, but this is comparing to e.g. USA.

And not mentioning the other reasons to want to raise your children full time, there are obvious and understandable reasons for that, and you are obviously free to do that and many do. But there are also good reasons for letting them meet other children in a well run daycare too.

Re: Half the men in Seattle are never-married singles, census data shows

#148

I live in Seattle now, am married, and have an infant. I find Seattle not friendly towards families at all. The going rate for a daycare here is 3.5k per month for an infant. My wife and I are both ~7%ers? individually and we can barely afford our home (a tall skinny townhouse with no yard) and the cost of 1 baby. Having a family is hard here... Also, I don't find Seattle safe for infants and toddlers, or anybody rea…

> I would never let my kid go outside and play unsupervised in Seattle even tho I myself did this as a kid in my home town (the safety I was mentioning)

What makes you feel uncomfortable with this? Is Seattle particularly dangerous, moreso than a few decades ago?

Re: Half the men in Seattle are never-married singles, census data shows

#149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1. Seattle is quite safe. Friendliness is different than safety 2. It all comes back to housing density/supply. As you say, daycare costs are dominated by staffing ratios/wages - which are a function of cost of living. The surge of high income earners + housing supply deficit = pricing out daycare workers (and daycares).

The required staffing at daycare isn't driven by "crime safety" but an overprotective sense of protecting kids from themselves and each other. These are the required ratios. As low as 1:4 for https://www.childcare.org/ckfinder/userfiles/files/Washingto...

A 4:1 ratio for infants seems quite reasonable and not overprotective. Children that age require a lot of attention. By the time you've fed and changed diapers for 4 babies it's about time to start the cycle again.

Re: Half the men in Seattle are never-married singles, census data shows

#150
post #63

I live in Seattle now, am married, and have an infant. I find Seattle not friendly towards families at all. The going rate for a daycare here is 3.5k per month for an infant. My wife and I are both ~7%ers? individually and we can barely afford our home (a tall skinny townhouse with no yard) and the cost of 1 baby. Having a family is hard here... Also, I don't find Seattle safe for infants and toddlers, or anybody rea…

There's hardly any place which is really "friendly" towards professional families with infants. For safety reasons, daycare centers have to maintain staffing ratios so it's always going to be extremely expensive (unless you're poor enough to qualify for subsidies). As for safety, for some reason those big tech employees keep voting for progressive politicians whose failed policies have ruined their cities. I guess vo…

Somehow most countries in the world can manage it to keep low cost or even free.
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