51–60 of 75 posts
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> Your session has timed out. Please go back to the article page and click the PDF link again. Direct linking doesn’t work
Well, you have left the token in. But it needs a token, so it will be faster to use the link in the web pages.
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That's an escape hatch for religion.
I always wondered if there was a clinical basis for that escape hatch or if the drafting committee felt it was just too contentious to go there.
The "terror of global catastrophe" is what doomscroller media constantly hammers onto its readers. And once someone has "bought in", it's impossible to reason with them. They'll just forever spread anxiety around them. What's interesting is how it happens. Take someone who is mentally stable and subject them to a terminally online lifestyle for a year or two. They will have tons of anxiety about all sorts of things,…
Good insight, thanks. I've been struggling with existential dread related to https://ai-2027.com/ - trying to refute the arguments is exhausting, I should probably just ignore it and get on with my life.
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That assumes a level of structure and control to society that simply doesn’t exist. I don’t know why people so often fall into the trap of assuming someone or something is running things, but chaos seems to be anathema to how people perceive the world. God(s), fate, luck, karma, magic etc have been supplanted by the everything from hidden cabals, aliens, etc but I don’t think the underlying psychology is really any d…
I think you are making some assumptions there. All of the things the parent comment mentioned can come about through emergent behaviors. Every actor operating independently yet influenced towards a certain direction via the incentives/disincentives that the system provides them.
Isn’t how you describe an emergent phenomena, a flock of birds is the thing that moves it doesn’t make sense to say it’s controlled.
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That assumes a level of structure and control to society that simply doesn’t exist. I don’t know why people so often fall into the trap of assuming someone or something is running things, but chaos seems to be anathema to how people perceive the world. God(s), fate, luck, karma, magic etc have been supplanted by the everything from hidden cabals, aliens, etc but I don’t think the underlying psychology is really any d…
The world is chaotic, but that doesn't mean power is symmetric between everyone.
Power asymmetry doesn’t imply control. Exxon has orders of magnitude more influence on the price of gas than I do, but it’s influence not control.
direct link to paper (the numbers are on page 5) https://watermark.silverchair.com/sbae225.pdf?token=AQECAHi2...
Worse than the DOI link at the end of the article, which points directly to the OA paper available at the publishers page.
I did not break the internet by making a URL that is not a universal resource link.
The "terror of global catastrophe" is what doomscroller media constantly hammers onto its readers. And once someone has "bought in", it's impossible to reason with them. They'll just forever spread anxiety around them. What's interesting is how it happens. Take someone who is mentally stable and subject them to a terminally online lifestyle for a year or two. They will have tons of anxiety about all sorts of things,…
Good insight, thanks. I've been struggling with existential dread related to https://ai-2027.com/ - trying to refute the arguments is exhausting, I should probably just ignore it and get on with my life.
There are many false narratives meant to distract, and you'll have to discern which ones are true and it can be exhausting if you let it. This is how 5th-Generation-Warfare (5GW) is.
I'll tell you right now, its highly unlikely that AGI will occur, because the properties required for computation make it nigh impossible.
It doesn't need to do this to be an existential threat. All it needs to do is disrupt the economic cycle sufficiently to stall economic activity, and it does so quite easily.
An economic cycle stalling leads to chaotic socio-economic collapse and a loss of order. Current population levels are only made possible by dependencies which have been made brittle over time, relying on continued order for survival just to produce enough food. I'm sure you've heard of the Malthusian Trap, you may not have revisited later works touching on Malthus by Catton in the 90s.
The economic cycle is a circular cycle between workers and producers. We exist today because of an equitable distribution of labor which is compensated.
There is also the issue of money printing, which is too long to discuss here. Needless to say there are two requirements that must be met to continue the cycle sustainably (avoiding chaotic whipsaw and stalling). Producers must make a profit in purchasing power, People must make a profit supporting a wife and three children sufficient so that one makes it to have children themselves, also in purchasing power.
Money printing eventually causes money to lose its store of value (property), and when that happens medium of exchange is lost as well. Stalling of the economy, and same issue.
There are at least 6 other avenues by which this same outcome occurs, and they are in systems we can no longer change, its runaway. Solutions like UBI fail for other equally impossible problems, albeit they are more indirect but still end in chaotic whipsaws, distortions (artificial supply constraint), etc.
AI doesn't need to be AGI. All it needs to do is disrupt and eliminate the majority of entry level positions of the career development pipeline.
Within a 10 year cycle, collapse will become unavoidable as a matter of math. The output of a pipeline depends upon the input of the pipeline, it is always less for all values above 0. 0 in 0 out.
Man ages out of careers and die eventually. No people to mentor, that knowledge dies with them.
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Fears about AI misalignment look like a modern, secular Pascal's Wager. It's hedge against a low-probability, infinite-cost outcome. The Rationalist version builds a matrix where one cell is -inf, and from that, derives an imperative to act, regardless of how speculative the premise is. However, once you admit infinite utilities and epistemic humility about probabilities, you can justify literally anything. The same…
AGI does sound a lot like a "psychological crutch" when it is pointed at as the answer for wicked problems like climate change. With faith in AGI, nothing else really matters because we can eventually surrender ourselves to the superior direction and interventions of this god we have created. There's no point worrying about anything else. Human technology has evolved significantly in the last few thousand years but w…
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I think you are making some assumptions there. All of the things the parent comment mentioned can come about through emergent behaviors. Every actor operating independently yet influenced towards a certain direction via the incentives/disincentives that the system provides them.
> population control without coercion Isn’t how you describe an emergent phenomena, a flock of birds is the thing that moves it doesn’t make sense to say it’s controlled.
The "terror of global catastrophe" is what doomscroller media constantly hammers onto its readers. And once someone has "bought in", it's impossible to reason with them. They'll just forever spread anxiety around them. What's interesting is how it happens. Take someone who is mentally stable and subject them to a terminally online lifestyle for a year or two. They will have tons of anxiety about all sorts of things,…
What you just described is an idea that's around intellectual circles about the nature of power in this era. It's the idea behind the book "Ipnocrazia" (not yet released), which gained fame around europe and south america. Citing from the top of my head: "Simulation isn't imitating the real anymore, simulation precedes the real" If I understand it right, tragedy is first simulated. Once the simulation is bought by th…
The author doesn’t exist. The whole essay is fake—or a “philosophical experiment”[1], according to Andrea Colamedici, the real italian author behind it, who was supposedly just the translator. And those words aren’t his either. They came from two AI platforms (still unnamed).
It’s been a scandal in publishing, and in all the universities and newspapers that praised it as a fresh way to understand the present.
Now, of course, intellectuals and journalists are justifying “the intellectual debate the book sparked”, asking if these new “philosophical entities” are the start of a new wave of “hybrid works...” and so on.
Well. They’ve basically discovered "vibe philosophizing": feeling deep truths without knowing where they come from or why they sound right.
[1] More: https://english.elpais.com/technology/2025-04-07/jianwei-xun...