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Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

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Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#231
post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>the Chinese economic model of government-controlled economic direction, though not perfect, would work better You want the US government to provide more subsidies to US tech companies so they can stay competitive? Because that is what China is doing for its tech sector.

You only look at the surface China is subsidizing everything but at the same time forcing the companies to share the wealth created with all of its populace not just the company and company share holders. Subsidizing companies is not the problem not sharing the wealth with the workers is the problem. US not subsidizing it companies is bullshit fed to you. As Boeing, Tesla, SpaceX, Microsoft from the tel-cos to the po…

>You only look at the surface China is subsidizing everything but at the same time forcing the companies to share the wealth created with all of its populace not just the company and company share holders.

Do you have in mind any examples that make your case the strongest? In particular, examples caused by subsidy to the company, and not to the population[1].

[1] like this one: https://www.gov.cn/zhengce/202501/content_6997459.htm

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#232
post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trump won the popular vote. I don't think this is going away without a major demographic shift, time probably measured in decades.

He won by a single point, when 30% of the population didn’t vote. It’s not good for the future of the country that he got anywhere as many votes as he did but we should remember that an emboldened minority is still a minority.

A large minority is still large. And not voting is a signal of apathy. Not opposition.

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Companies aren’t getting exemptions. The product categories are. The headline is misleading. And while you might already be aware of that, most the people responding to you clearly aren’t.

True, yet irrelevant. If Apple imports garlic for it's cafeteria, that will be tariffed. But those commodity categories represent the business of the named companies, and those companies represent the majority of the value of imports to the US in those categories.

It’s not irrelevant at all when the headline implies that companies were singled out by name. Details matter.

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. This reads as capitulation by Trump who is now finding out his long held, half-baked economic theories are wrong. Trump got spanked by the bond market and realized how weak his position was. He can't walk it all back overnight without appearing even weaker than he already is. He's going to slowly roll back most consequential tariffs to try to escape blame for damaging the economy.

This is it exactly. And all the people who are calling Trump a 4cd chess master and a genius are in my opinion highly influenced by his propaganda. They have a Trump Derangement Syndrome in a worship sense.

I’m completely over the tech industry falling over itself to bootlick and apologize away everything we’ve seen play out recently. The Cloudflare CEO, Matthew Prince, recently posted on X trying to explain the strategy and likely calm investors fears: https://x.com/eastdakota/status/1909822463707652192

“They’re not stupid. I know enough of the players involved to know they’re not idiots.”

“They’re not just in it for themselves. I get that this has become non-conventional wisdom, but I am going to assume for this that the goal isn’t merely grift.”

TLDR: don’t worry, it’s 5D chess. Keep on bootlicking your way to success while your stock gets trashed by these policies and we double down on anti-science rhetoric which will hasten our decline. I guess most of these leaders will have cashed out before it all implodes.

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Companies aren’t getting exemptions. The product categories are. The headline is misleading. And while you might already be aware of that, most the people responding to you clearly aren’t.

The result is still that certain companies are getting exemptions for their products while others aren't. And there is no real rhyme or reason behind these decisions

K. We aren’t in disagreement there. Not sure if you’re giving pushback on something I said.

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#236

This reads to me as "we're doubling-down on 145%+ tariffs for everyone else". This is getting frighteningly close to a Russian-style economy. As in, a handful of powerful, connected "insiders" will be allowed to operate businesses, and will dominate... while everyone else gets wiped out, by acts of government. The furthest system possible from the free-market paradigm that built the American economy as it stands toda…

It's not the furthest thing from the American economy as it stands today, but the inevitable conclusion of the "free-market" capitalism we've been practicing over the past number of decades.

Donald Trump is the poster child of American capitalism gone right, he's an aspiration for wealthy capitalists across the nation. Generally people have felt that if only we could get an American businessman like Trump in charge of the country, running things the way a true capitalist would (as opposed to how those dirty awful communists/socialists tend to run things), then the country would start going right for a change.

Well now we have that, and in short order the country has Russian-style crony capitalism from the top. This would not happen in a country that actually cares about free markets. But we don't. Everything we consume is owned by like 10 companies. If you want to get a start in the market you have to get access to capital they control, or meet regulations they set, because they've captured the government regulators through bribes.

Trump is just taking this whole system of favoritism we've been living under and making it official. I for one am for it because honestly people pretending there is no corruption is worse than the corruption at this point.

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#237

This reads to me as "we're doubling-down on 145%+ tariffs for everyone else". This is getting frighteningly close to a Russian-style economy. As in, a handful of powerful, connected "insiders" will be allowed to operate businesses, and will dominate... while everyone else gets wiped out, by acts of government. The furthest system possible from the free-market paradigm that built the American economy as it stands toda…

It's not the furthest thing from the American economy as it stands today, but the inevitable conclusion of the "free-market" capitalism we've been practicing over the past number of decades. Donald Trump is the poster child of American capitalism gone right , he's an aspiration for wealthy capitalists across the nation. Generally people have felt that if only we could get an American businessman like Trump in charge…

> Donald Trump is the poster child of American capitalism gone right

This is the same guy who went bankrupt 3 times, including a casino?

The same guy who'd be as rich as he is today if he had invested the funds bequeathed by his father?

The one who had a TV show based on him that was incredibly manipulated to make him appear richer and wiser than he really is?

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#238
post #128
post #30

From an outsider’s perspective, it’s difficult to discern any coherent U.S. strategy—assuming one even exists. One day it’s a 145% tariff on China. The next, it’s “Well, it’s still 145%, but Apple and Nvidia are exempted because their stock prices might take a hit.” Then comes a 90-day pause, adding to the confusion. It’s not clear whether Jamieson Greer is actually steering this, or if any of it was thoroughly thoug…

The strategy is to sow fear and uncertainty to drive capital from stocks to government bonds and drive down the bond yield. Bessant is pretty clear about this. Once they get the bond yields down and refinance a lot of the short term debt into longer term debt they free up operating budget. Combine with Elon’s DOGE cutting costs and Lutnick raising some capital from tariffs, and it is a pretty good strategy. I don’t a…

> I don’t agree with Trump’s policies generally nor am I American, but this is a good short term strategy.

This strategy has failed spectacularly, as bond yields are still up and treasuries are sold like crazy. US treasuries are no longer seen as safe havens. People rather invest in gold or treasuries from other countries which are not led by a corrupt government. Buying US treasuries is now seen as "lending Trump money", and since Trump runs the US economy exactly like he ran his companies, where IIRC he defaulted on debt at least six times, US treasuries are now a rather risky investment.

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So all anyone has to do to qualify is produce some of the most complicated electronic devices and components in the history of the world at the largest scale possible, without which there is zero chance of being sustainable or competitive, and then they can benefit from the gifts to the established giants? What a gift. What a great idea. That'll surely spur innovation and domestic production and have no effect to fur…

And if you build your tech in US, well, you are disadvantaged because you have to pay the tariffs on every component you import from China. So it’s actually an incentive to build in China.

The other benefit of building in China is that you will get unrestricted access to Europe and other markets

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Russia comparison is the corruption, not the protectionism.

I’d understand if these exemptions applied to companies and not industries. For comparison, Putin unilaterally nationalizes and sells off companies to benefit his inner circle. The US isn’t nationalizing AMD and selling it to Nvidia at the behest of Jensen.

Yet. They are still in the process of consolidating control over the government, the law, and universities. Once that's done, they will move on to corporations. It's been 2 months and change, give them time.
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