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The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

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161–170 of 523 posts

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#161

I keep seeing people advocating that the idea that we should build everything, and every piece or everything, here is a good one. Why? Is this just an isolationist dream? The reductive, absurd, extreme of this is why don't individual people go out and build all their own stuff like cars and houses. Let's all go out and learn how to mine and refine metal ore so we can get started on building the family sedan! There is…

the gist is: When you can manufacture ships, you can also manufacture warships. When you can manufacture warships, you can protect your economy.

or: If all you sell are financial services, and a pandemic hits and you need to protect your people, where will you find masks?

We don't need to build literally everything ourselves, that's a reductionist argument, we just need to become a lot more productive than we are now.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#162

I keep seeing people advocating that the idea that we should build everything, and every piece or everything, here is a good one. Why? Is this just an isolationist dream? The reductive, absurd, extreme of this is why don't individual people go out and build all their own stuff like cars and houses. Let's all go out and learn how to mine and refine metal ore so we can get started on building the family sedan! There is…

> I keep seeing people advocating that the idea that we should build everything, and every piece or everything, here is a good one.

“Everything” may be a bit extreme, but seriously, have you already forgotten the lessons learned during the Covid supply shocks? It’s important to be at least somewhat self-reliant as a nation, especially when the country we are VERY reliant on is not a friendly one.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#163
My town used to host the company that made the "Bridgeport machine"(the name of the town itself) and the Singer company. When both left, it relied on banking to pick up the slack, but now that seems to be falling apart as well with the skyline mostly empty after the banks left post-pandemic. Whenever I machine something on a Bridgeport I think about it. https://bridgeportmachinetools.com/about-us/ https://www.singersewinginfo.co.uk/bridgeport

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#164

How’s basing the US economy on services looking now? My brother is an extremely skilled machinist, the sort who could build machine tools if he had the resources. And let me tell you there ain’t many of them, especially not young ones. Why? Because the US has emphasized college as the only respectable education path, as well as the only path to well paid jobs. That’s how you end up with a manufacturing industry full…

> Because the US has emphasized college as the only respectable education path, as well as the only path to well paid jobs. There's this idea that the shift to college and white collar jobs was some artificial push, but it seems more like an incredibly natural and obvious move to me. A lot of blue collar work is just not super great from a working conditions and pay perspective and while not every white collar job is…

> But it's really easy to slip into overly romanticizing those careers even to the point of suggesting they're better than getting a degree.

Well they are better in the sense that you can’t really outsource HVAC or plumbing work to India. The downside of course, and the reason that so many Americans fell out of love with the trades, is that we’re extremely eager to import foreign labor, legally or otherwise, to suppress wages.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#165

How’s basing the US economy on services looking now? My brother is an extremely skilled machinist, the sort who could build machine tools if he had the resources. And let me tell you there ain’t many of them, especially not young ones. Why? Because the US has emphasized college as the only respectable education path, as well as the only path to well paid jobs. That’s how you end up with a manufacturing industry full…

> Because the US has emphasized college as the only respectable education path, as well as the only path to well paid jobs. There's this idea that the shift to college and white collar jobs was some artificial push, but it seems more like an incredibly natural and obvious move to me. A lot of blue collar work is just not super great from a working conditions and pay perspective and while not every white collar job is…

[deleted]

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#166

I keep seeing people advocating that the idea that we should build everything, and every piece or everything, here is a good one. Why? Is this just an isolationist dream? The reductive, absurd, extreme of this is why don't individual people go out and build all their own stuff like cars and houses. Let's all go out and learn how to mine and refine metal ore so we can get started on building the family sedan! There is…

Unfortunately, when cheap goods are sourced outside the US "innovation" usually just means "slave labor" or "flouting environmental regulations". Not the case for Europe, etc. but most Americans are better off without competing against slave labor so billionaires can become trillionaires while they lose social security, healthcare, etc. I'll pay an extra 20 percent for well-made things that aren't produced by indentu…

> Unfortunately, when cheap goods are sourced outside the US "innovation" usually just means "slave labor" or "flouting environmental regulations".

Eh, China has 20x-ed its GDP per capita in a generation. They're not slaves.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#167

I keep seeing people advocating that the idea that we should build everything, and every piece or everything, here is a good one. Why? Is this just an isolationist dream? The reductive, absurd, extreme of this is why don't individual people go out and build all their own stuff like cars and houses. Let's all go out and learn how to mine and refine metal ore so we can get started on building the family sedan! There is…

That is a pretty hyperbolic paragraph only to imply that we as a nation would loose out on innovation by doing so; nowhere do we want to isolate as a country. Look at all the jobless Americans in once thriving industrial cities. Generations left without pensions or skills all because we outsource our workers to other countries. That’s one of the many problems that need to be solved and by manufacturing here in the US…

>nowhere do we want to isolate as a country. Look at all the jobless Americans in once thriving industrial cities. Generations left without pensions or skills all because we outsource our workers to other countries.

And we didn't pay for re-skilling, re-training, re-education. We didn't give them welfare benefits to hold over while they learned these new things. We did near nothing, and expected these areas simply to pick themselves back up organically.

Of course that failed. When you do little to nothing, you get little to nothing in return.

Tariffs and manufacturing aren't going to solve this fundamental problem, which is as industry demands shift they externalize the cost whenever possible, which leaves workers, cities and states with a poor deal. If you instead plan around the fact you can't micro manage the economy, but you can setup a meaningful floor that catches people when industry shifts and allows them to invest in themselves - without fear of losing their livelihood - to take advantage of the next opportunities or better yet, create new ones - you wouldn't have this problem in the first place.

Tariffs won't help. Bringing manufacturing - in whatever capacity does get brought back, it remains to be seen if this will even happen - won't help alleviate this in any meaningful way.

On top of all this, the tariffs are here, and there is little plan beyond simply implementing them and...waiting for industry to magically start manufacturing in the US again? What is the actual plan here?

I frankly can't understand the undeserved optimism. If we wanted to make things better for formerly industrial cities, we should have invested in them and their citizenry decades ago. We failed to do this meaningfully. Thats the real problem, and they aren't fixing that problem at all

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#168
post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> pensioned .gov retirees who want some escape from the pollution/crime/cramp of the city. What is this stereotype? Government retirees aren't some elite wealthy class. IIRC government pensions haven't been anything to write home about since 1982 (or something), and are roughly equivalent to private sector retirement benefits.

Might just be regional. An insanely high proportion of my rural neighbors are people who did 20 years in the military and started receiving benefits around age 40 and were able to use those benefits to supplement a homestead. How many private sector people drew a pension at 40 and then double dipped? I'm not damning them for it, it's not like many in the military didn't work hard for that money, but it's incredibly d…

If I had to guess, it has more to do with the type of person who is willing to save diligently for decades. Government work (at least until the last few months) tended to be lower paying but steadier. The type of risk-averse person who takes a government job is also more likely to save over time, taking advantage of compounding. Just correlated, in other words.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Manufacturing will start coming back based on the high tariffs just with two big caveats. 1. Manufacturing takes time and money to setup. This is a software forum where changes are made at lighting speed. Manufacturing requires capital, years, and will. In software it might take a day to make an obvious change. Manufacturing hopefully 6 months. Working with physical systems takes time. 2. Manufacturing does not mean…

> Manufacturing takes time and money to setup. Trump has 4 years if he survives that long. He's an old man. The trade war can't possibly last long enough for manufacturing to be forced to restart domestically. Even if this was his first term and he got a second, by the time the second rolls around everyone would just hope to wait it out until the Democrats retook the White House and they could import everything from…

It's not even necessarily 4 years. If the economy crashes hard there's a very real possibility of a Democratic congress that takes control of tariffing away from the President and removes all of this nonsense. That election is only 18 months away.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know laborers that make well above most “software monkeys” and don’t even get me started with how much heavy machine operators make!

> don’t even get me started with how much heavy machine operators make! $40 an hour in Austin Tx, a city with construction going on in every corner.

>$40 an hour in Austin Tx

Less than I make currently, and I don't live in one of the S/HCOL cities either.

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