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The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

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Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#121

Post by palmotea »

neogodless wrote: post #47
FirmwareBurner wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not everyone can be a SW engineer. Same how not everyone can be a doctor. Or a lawyer. For a lot of people, bolting bumpers to Fords is as good as it gets in terms of job prospects.

This is the eternal evolution of individual labor. But then the question is - do you think going backwards to an earlier time is a solution? Go far enough back to individual homesteads doing some light farming, hunting, fishing. You'll be self sufficient, but you won't be able to afford a phone or television! It's going to be a difficult problem (always) solving for the future of individual contributions to society a…

> But then the question is - do you think going backwards to an earlier time is a solution?

It's not "backwards in time." The need for machine tools didn't disappear. There's an essential machine-tool industry that the US depends on very much, it's just in places like China.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#122

Post by palmotea »

ty6853 wrote: post #66
neogodless wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the eternal evolution of individual labor. But then the question is - do you think going backwards to an earlier time is a solution? Go far enough back to individual homesteads doing some light farming, hunting, fishing. You'll be self sufficient, but you won't be able to afford a phone or television! It's going to be a difficult problem (always) solving for the future of individual contributions to society a…

It would take you 10+ years of skilled labor savings in any case to afford a homestead capable of sufficient farming and hunting output to sustain a family. Because you are competing not with homesteaders but rich professionals or pensioned .gov retirees who want some escape from the pollution/crime/cramp of the city. Even if all of US became homesteaders this would likely still be at least a little bit the case, bec…

> pensioned .gov retirees who want some escape from the pollution/crime/cramp of the city.

What is this stereotype? Government retirees aren't some elite wealthy class. IIRC government pensions haven't been anything to write home about since 1982 (or something), and are roughly equivalent to private sector retirement benefits.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#123

Post by ty6853 »

palmotea wrote: post #122
ty6853 wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would take you 10+ years of skilled labor savings in any case to afford a homestead capable of sufficient farming and hunting output to sustain a family. Because you are competing not with homesteaders but rich professionals or pensioned .gov retirees who want some escape from the pollution/crime/cramp of the city. Even if all of US became homesteaders this would likely still be at least a little bit the case, bec…

> pensioned .gov retirees who want some escape from the pollution/crime/cramp of the city. What is this stereotype? Government retirees aren't some elite wealthy class. IIRC government pensions haven't been anything to write home about since 1982 (or something), and are roughly equivalent to private sector retirement benefits.

Might just be regional. An insanely high proportion of my rural neighbors are people who did 20 years in the military and started receiving benefits around age 40 and were able to use those benefits to supplement a homestead. How many private sector people drew a pension at 40 and then double dipped? I'm not damning them for it, it's not like many in the military didn't work hard for that money, but it's incredibly difficult for a working class 40 year old these days to fuck off into a rural area and buy a homestead with rural salaries without something functioning as a substitute to that backing it up.

In any case in my rural homestead region there are mainly three classes

1) .gov pensioners 2) successful professionals 3) inherited property

The key to government pensions here I think is that they get benefits early enough in life that they are young enough to build and live a homestead life. At age 65+ you might be able to maintain an established property but buying something affordable (read: rough or vacant land) out and getting it up and running would be pretty rough for most at that age.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#124

Post by neuralRiot »

palmotea wrote: post #121
neogodless wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the eternal evolution of individual labor. But then the question is - do you think going backwards to an earlier time is a solution? Go far enough back to individual homesteads doing some light farming, hunting, fishing. You'll be self sufficient, but you won't be able to afford a phone or television! It's going to be a difficult problem (always) solving for the future of individual contributions to society a…

> But then the question is - do you think going backwards to an earlier time is a solution? It's not "backwards in time." The need for machine tools didn't disappear. There's an essential machine-tool industry that the US depends on very much, it's just in places like China.

The problem is that the US is already behind in innovation on that field, and better machines produce better machines. So it’s “backwards in time” because you have to start manufacturing the shovel to start digging when your competitor has a backhoe. And even if you could somehow steal the design and build it you don’t have anyone who could operate it.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#125

Post by palmotea »

ty6853 wrote: post #41
ryandrake wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Because the US has emphasized college as the only respectable education path, as well as the only path to well paid jobs. If I could make as a machinist what I make as a software monkey, all other things being equal, I'd go back in time and train to be a machinist. People will go where the money is.

The economic picture of what will happen is instead of being an American engineer designing widgets made in China, some fraction of you are now decimated to be an American widget maker of items engineered in China. Tarriff is essentially just a handicap to comparitive advantage in trade, trading out jobs where you had the advantage. It is one of the most baffling thing I have seen our government do in our lifetime.

> The economic picture of what will happen is instead of being an American engineer designing widgets made in China, some fraction of you are now decimated to be an American widget maker of items engineered in China. Tarriff is essentially just a handicap to comparitive advantage in trade, trading out jobs where you had the advantage.

That's just a myopic regurgitation of free trade dogma that misses much. For instance: 1) the previous sock of American widget makers didn't become engineers, they got laid off with poor prospects; 2) it assumes a friendly free trade regime, which is unrealistic oversimplification; and perhaps 3) that "comparative advantage" is something real and not just lower living standards and laxer environmental and labor regulations.

> It is one of the most baffling thing I have seen our government do in our lifetime.

The part you're baffled about is only baffling if you're ignorant of everything except free trade dogma.

The real baffling thing is why little to no distinction was made between allies and adversaries, low wage countries and high wage countries.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#126

Post by palmotea »

neuralRiot wrote: post #124
palmotea wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But then the question is - do you think going backwards to an earlier time is a solution? It's not "backwards in time." The need for machine tools didn't disappear. There's an essential machine-tool industry that the US depends on very much, it's just in places like China.

The problem is that the US is already behind in innovation on that field, and better machines produce better machines. So it’s “backwards in time” because you have to start manufacturing the shovel to start digging when your competitor has a backhoe. And even if you could somehow steal the design and build it you don’t have anyone who could operate it.

> The problem is that the US is already behind in innovation on that field, and better machines produce better machines.

That's not a permanent situation, proven by the fact that the countries that are now ahead in machine tools used to be behind the US in machine tools.

> So it’s “backwards in time” because you have to start manufacturing the shovel to start digging when your competitor has a backhoe. And even if you could somehow steal the design and build it you don’t have anyone who could operate it.

As aptly demonstrated by China: it's a lot easier to catch up than to develop at the cutting edge. All you need is a little bit of investment and will.

And personally, I think the government should conscript some crypto and adtech startups (and their employees) to build up an operator pool, because they're obnoxious and those people should be doing something useful instead.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#127

Post by whatshisface »

arcbyte wrote: post #96
whatshisface wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only way to "solve" this is to reduce US output of valuable goods so that people are attracted to jobs that pay less and make less valuable goods. I don't understand why everyone's so enamored with the prospect of making $50k working a lathe in a world where engineering jobs have been made rarer artificially. It won't even be a job in a factory that makes something cool like rockets or lithography machines, witho…

There are an enormous number of people who would love to make $50k working a lathe in the US. Enormous amounts of them. But they can't. They're working at Walmart making minimum wage.

If you try to raise the number of Americans that make $50k by shrinking the total domestic output, it's going to be laid-off mechanical engineers in those new jobs, not former sales associates, themselves now unemployed due to reduced retail traffic.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#128

Post by palmotea »

ty6853 wrote: post #123
palmotea wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> pensioned .gov retirees who want some escape from the pollution/crime/cramp of the city. What is this stereotype? Government retirees aren't some elite wealthy class. IIRC government pensions haven't been anything to write home about since 1982 (or something), and are roughly equivalent to private sector retirement benefits.

Might just be regional. An insanely high proportion of my rural neighbors are people who did 20 years in the military and started receiving benefits around age 40 and were able to use those benefits to supplement a homestead. How many private sector people drew a pension at 40 and then double dipped? I'm not damning them for it, it's not like many in the military didn't work hard for that money, but it's incredibly d…

> How many private sector people drew a pension at 40 and then double dipped?

Military is a unique subset of government, and IIRC most people who join don't stay long enough to draw a pension.

When you said "government retirees," that brings to mind the civil service, which I believe is larger.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#129

Post by ty6853 »

palmotea wrote: post #128
ty6853 wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Might just be regional. An insanely high proportion of my rural neighbors are people who did 20 years in the military and started receiving benefits around age 40 and were able to use those benefits to supplement a homestead. How many private sector people drew a pension at 40 and then double dipped? I'm not damning them for it, it's not like many in the military didn't work hard for that money, but it's incredibly d…

> How many private sector people drew a pension at 40 and then double dipped? Military is a unique subset of government, and IIRC most people who join don't stay long enough to draw a pension. When you said "government retirees," that brings to mind the civil service, which I believe is larger.

But it isn't just the military. There are government civil servants that draw pension at 20/25 years as well such as FBI agents. Makes more sense to say .gov rather than just the military.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#130

Post by BobaFloutist »

FirmwareBurner wrote: post #24
ryandrake wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Because the US has emphasized college as the only respectable education path, as well as the only path to well paid jobs. If I could make as a machinist what I make as a software monkey, all other things being equal, I'd go back in time and train to be a machinist. People will go where the money is.

Not everyone can be a SW engineer. Same how not everyone can be a doctor. Or a lawyer. For a lot of people, bolting bumpers to Fords is as good as it gets in terms of job prospects.

Until they lose a finger and can't do it anymore.
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