Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

rand.org

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

21–30 of 523 posts

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#21

Post by jackyinger »

ryandrake wrote: post #15
jackyinger wrote: post #4

How’s basing the US economy on services looking now? My brother is an extremely skilled machinist, the sort who could build machine tools if he had the resources. And let me tell you there ain’t many of them, especially not young ones. Why? Because the US has emphasized college as the only respectable education path, as well as the only path to well paid jobs. That’s how you end up with a manufacturing industry full…

> Because the US has emphasized college as the only respectable education path, as well as the only path to well paid jobs. If I could make as a machinist what I make as a software monkey, all other things being equal, I'd go back in time and train to be a machinist. People will go where the money is.

Exactly. This is the problem with throwing all the money into “hot spots”. Growing the heck out of a few hot industries virtually ensures established ones will decline.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#22

Post by whatshisface »

ryandrake wrote: post #15
jackyinger wrote: post #4

How’s basing the US economy on services looking now? My brother is an extremely skilled machinist, the sort who could build machine tools if he had the resources. And let me tell you there ain’t many of them, especially not young ones. Why? Because the US has emphasized college as the only respectable education path, as well as the only path to well paid jobs. That’s how you end up with a manufacturing industry full…

> Because the US has emphasized college as the only respectable education path, as well as the only path to well paid jobs. If I could make as a machinist what I make as a software monkey, all other things being equal, I'd go back in time and train to be a machinist. People will go where the money is.

The only way to "solve" this is to reduce US output of valuable goods so that people are attracted to jobs that pay less and make less valuable goods. I don't understand why everyone's so enamored with the prospect of making $50k working a lathe in a world where engineering jobs have been made rarer artificially. It won't even be a job in a factory that makes something cool like rockets or lithography machines, without the ability to buy stuff from overseas those people will all have to quit to work on final assembly for digital wristwatches.

They're right that they've been alienated from labor, they're so alienated they don't know that Fred Flintstone spent all day scheming to get promoted into working behind a desk.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#23

Post by NoMoreNicksLeft »

elictronic wrote: post #16
ferguess_k wrote: post #5

I have a sense that manufacturing is not coming back until there is a real Cold War 2.0 (or Hot War 3.0 which hopefully never realizes). I mean a real one, like the NATO-WP one when there was not a lot of trading between the two blocs.

Manufacturing will start coming back based on the high tariffs just with two big caveats. 1. Manufacturing takes time and money to setup. This is a software forum where changes are made at lighting speed. Manufacturing requires capital, years, and will. In software it might take a day to make an obvious change. Manufacturing hopefully 6 months. Working with physical systems takes time. 2. Manufacturing does not mean…

> Manufacturing takes time and money to setup.

Trump has 4 years if he survives that long. He's an old man. The trade war can't possibly last long enough for manufacturing to be forced to restart domestically. Even if this was his first term and he got a second, by the time the second rolls around everyone would just hope to wait it out until the Democrats retook the White House and they could import everything from China again. But now no one can even make the argument and be taken seriously that we need this, because if Trump's doing trade wars then it must be a bad idea.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#24

Post by FirmwareBurner »

ryandrake wrote: post #15
jackyinger wrote: post #4

How’s basing the US economy on services looking now? My brother is an extremely skilled machinist, the sort who could build machine tools if he had the resources. And let me tell you there ain’t many of them, especially not young ones. Why? Because the US has emphasized college as the only respectable education path, as well as the only path to well paid jobs. That’s how you end up with a manufacturing industry full…

> Because the US has emphasized college as the only respectable education path, as well as the only path to well paid jobs. If I could make as a machinist what I make as a software monkey, all other things being equal, I'd go back in time and train to be a machinist. People will go where the money is.

Not everyone can be a SW engineer. Same how not everyone can be a doctor. Or a lawyer. For a lot of people, bolting bumpers to Fords is as good as it gets in terms of job prospects.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#25

Post by ferguess_k »

elictronic wrote: post #16
ferguess_k wrote: post #5

I have a sense that manufacturing is not coming back until there is a real Cold War 2.0 (or Hot War 3.0 which hopefully never realizes). I mean a real one, like the NATO-WP one when there was not a lot of trading between the two blocs.

Manufacturing will start coming back based on the high tariffs just with two big caveats. 1. Manufacturing takes time and money to setup. This is a software forum where changes are made at lighting speed. Manufacturing requires capital, years, and will. In software it might take a day to make an obvious change. Manufacturing hopefully 6 months. Working with physical systems takes time. 2. Manufacturing does not mean…

I think they will more or less add some jobs at least, which is fine. But I don't think there is going to be any political will unless the necessity pushes people to demand it.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#26

Post by nemomarx »

jackyinger wrote: post #17
turtlesdown11 wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> How’s basing the US economy on services looking now? You mean the worlds strongest, most developed and most successful economy?

Reminds me of a friend’s defense of the service focused economy: “I’ve got a PhD in economics”. Sure services may be great when things are going well, but you can’t ONLY have services, and then go and blow up international trade and expect to have a good time.

well why would you want to blow up international trade to begin with?

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#27

Post by turtlesdown11 »

NoMoreNicksLeft wrote: post #19
turtlesdown11 wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> How’s basing the US economy on services looking now? You mean the worlds strongest, most developed and most successful economy?

We've been coasting on advances made many decades ago. Most developed, sure. Successful? By nearly any metric you can imagine or make up. Strongest? Our economy is eaten hollow by termites. A stiff wind would make it crumble. Worse, there doesn't appear to be any path to true recovery... we can't create the jobs that people need to prosper, but if we could somehow do that we no longer create the people who would grow…

Please provide real metrics to support what you've claimed above.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#28

Post by Galatians4_16 »

morkalork wrote: post #9
jackyinger wrote: post #4

How’s basing the US economy on services looking now? My brother is an extremely skilled machinist, the sort who could build machine tools if he had the resources. And let me tell you there ain’t many of them, especially not young ones. Why? Because the US has emphasized college as the only respectable education path, as well as the only path to well paid jobs. That’s how you end up with a manufacturing industry full…

Crushing unions is partly to blame here. I've got relatives whose families have been working in the mining industry for a few generations. They all lament the good old days that are long gone now.

There was a related hashtag that was banned for hilarious reasons.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#29

Post by turtlesdown11 »

jackyinger wrote: post #17
turtlesdown11 wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> How’s basing the US economy on services looking now? You mean the worlds strongest, most developed and most successful economy?

Reminds me of a friend’s defense of the service focused economy: “I’ve got a PhD in economics”. Sure services may be great when things are going well, but you can’t ONLY have services, and then go and blow up international trade and expect to have a good time.

Quit the hyperbole.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPMAN

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/global-manufacturing-scor...

> Manufacturing constitutes 27 percent of China’s overall national output, which accounts for 20 percent of the world’s manufacturing output. In the United States, it represents 12 percent of the nation’s output and 18 percent of the world’s capacity. In Japan, manufacturing is 19 percent of the country’s national output and 10 percent of the world total. Overall, China, the United States, and Japan comprise 48 percent of the world’s manufacturing output.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#30

Post by anon84873628 »

jackyinger wrote: post #17
turtlesdown11 wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> How’s basing the US economy on services looking now? You mean the worlds strongest, most developed and most successful economy?

Reminds me of a friend’s defense of the service focused economy: “I’ve got a PhD in economics”. Sure services may be great when things are going well, but you can’t ONLY have services, and then go and blow up international trade and expect to have a good time.

Well, in a sane world we wouldn't have one man single-handedly blowing up international trade, and thus wouldn't be having this conversation.

Any system will fail if you deliberately put it into it's failure mode...

Post reply on HN