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Peter Thiel's College Dropouts: How's That Working Out?

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Re: Peter Thiel's College Dropouts: How's That Working Out?

#41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But there are also plenty of businesses with millions of users that only get revenue later in their life. For the first few years, traction besides revenue is certainly acceptable evidence of progress.

> "But there are also plenty of businesses with millions of users that only get revenue later in their life." No. No . NO. This is one of the most common stories told in the Valley, but it's also an immense case of confirmation bias. How many companies with millions users had no revenue for a long time and then became immensely successful later on with a viable monetization strategy? Google . Maaaaaybe Facebook, the…

I think you are right.

A year after getting $100,000 in seed money, they should have some revenue. Maybe not a lot, probably not profitable, but they should have some sales. Worst case, they should be right on the edge of releasing their product.

By year 2, no revenue would be a complete disaster for this program. Having 1 in 6 or 1 in 10 make it would also be a disaster.

Re: Peter Thiel's College Dropouts: How's That Working Out?

#42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But there are also plenty of businesses with millions of users that only get revenue later in their life. For the first few years, traction besides revenue is certainly acceptable evidence of progress.

> "But there are also plenty of businesses with millions of users that only get revenue later in their life." No. No . NO. This is one of the most common stories told in the Valley, but it's also an immense case of confirmation bias. How many companies with millions users had no revenue for a long time and then became immensely successful later on with a viable monetization strategy? Google . Maaaaaybe Facebook, the…

[deleted]

Re: Peter Thiel's College Dropouts: How's That Working Out?

#43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But there are also plenty of businesses with millions of users that only get revenue later in their life. For the first few years, traction besides revenue is certainly acceptable evidence of progress.

> "But there are also plenty of businesses with millions of users that only get revenue later in their life." No. No . NO. This is one of the most common stories told in the Valley, but it's also an immense case of confirmation bias. How many companies with millions users had no revenue for a long time and then became immensely successful later on with a viable monetization strategy? Google . Maaaaaybe Facebook, the…

I assumed this viewpoint was always understood. After all, business is easy.

If you at least break even, you are a going concern. Otherwise, business failure is inevitable.

Re: Peter Thiel's College Dropouts: How's That Working Out?

#44
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the "Pos" side should be discounted as it is obviously Thiel centered PR from an employee. I think the "Neg" side should be the default, since one should not presume value until value is demonstrated. That we are still in a sense "early stage" indicates that we don't have a full picture yet and so shouldn't presume that we do. I have mixed feelings about the program in general. Entrepreneurship programs maybe…

"Technical innovation comes from depth in a subject area, and you actually have to study something before you can innovate in the context of it." I think you are making three assumptions that can be disputed: 1. The only place to gain a depth of knowledge is a traditional university; and 2. The best time to gain this depth of knowledge is between the ages of 18 and 22; and 3. You need to innovate to have a successful…

I would argue that the problematic conflation exists in the original program, insofar as the 20 under 20 program is often described as a potential replacement for higher ed. As far as I see things, there are a whole bunch of extra factors which are much more extensive than your three categories and which require a much more rigorous analysis.

For example, how do we foster innovation in specific subjects? For instance, we presumably know that with respect to atomic physics, this requires highly knowledgable people who have spent a lifetime studying very abstract subject matter, and this is most likely to be facilitated by institutions not governed by a profit motive. This is not quite as clear for innovation with respect to alternative energy, which may require any of the following: developing new types of energy, developing the technology which employs the new type of energy, or bringing an existing technology to market. The skillsets required for all of these areas are different, as is the institutional setting in which they will foster. If you take a very brilliant person who could ostensibly be working on harnessing new potential energy from the atom and put him in a program focused on entrepreneurship this would be a total mis-utilization of talent and, consequently, a huge step backwards. This is to say that business and entrepreneurship are only a solution for a certain set of problems and these are not the only problems.

Also, certain subject areas require super-specialization. So you need to start early and stay focused. The means for doing this will probably depend on what the subject area is. Is "higher ed" the solution for a would-be master electrician? No, probably some combination of vocational school and apprenticeship is. Likewise for a pianist. You go to a specialized school for a specialized subject.

Standard higher ed is an easy whipping boy insofar as it is often the default solution for many people who don't know what they want to do with their lives, many of whom don't actually end up taking advantage of the resources available to them and learning all that much. In a certain sense this might be a fault of the institutions themselves, including massive inflation in costs, multiplication of institutions, and failure to actually teach anything of value. However, the fact remains that for certain cases, there are no obvious better options than higher ed.

In any case, I think higher ed should be looked at as a set of tools rather than a solution to a specific problem, least of all the question "what should I do with the next four years of my life?" If you look at it that way, you might find that the tools that are available for you, including potentially interacting with a number of bright and diverse people and broadening your experience in various unexpected ways will be beneficial in many ways.

Case in point: I was chatting with a professor at Harvard yesterday who studied French and German before focusing on Arabic, and he was lamenting the fact that he had not had the chance to study more Sanskrit (he did study a bit) or Urdu or get his Persian up to snuff, all of which he though would have deepened his understanding and approach to life, which have some relationship to his scholarship. Of course, all of these things take time, and usually they take some form of institutional support, but as far as I see it they can be valuable if they expose you to certain ways of thinking about the world that you might not experience otherwise.

For that reason, I think you are right about entrepreneurship as a possible thing to do alongside your studies or even to replace your studies, but it very much depends on the person and where they are trying to go with their life. There are a lot of very hard problems that cannot be solved in the context of a startup and indicating to the youth that this is the best option may deprive them of valuable life experience.

As for the specific question of age, I agree that there is no set time to do anything in life. There are, however, natural patterns, insofar as people are not usually ready to leave the home and exist on their own until sometime in their late teens. What they do at that point probably should depend on their talent and proclivities. In that sense, I do think that Thiel's initiative may be right for some people. It is, nonetheless, billed as a solution for all sorts of problems for which it is not (much like the gazillion online education initiatives).

Re: Peter Thiel's College Dropouts: How's That Working Out?

#45
post #37

Very interesting that they didn't mention James Proud's Giglocator exit. Maybe they didn't reach out/he decided not to participate in this article, but if you're going for the revenue angle then it should be noted[1] There are also two fellows in YC right now and are literally days from launching their startups. (disclosure: I'm a Thiel Fellow) [1]: http://www.forbes.com/sites/ryanmac/2012/06/20/skip-school-s...

This reads like Giglocator existed before Proud was selected as a Thiel Fellow.

> Proud’s early attachment to GigLocator led to his decision to forego a university education long before the Thiel’s 20 Under 20 program had even been thought up.

Re: Peter Thiel's College Dropouts: How's That Working Out?

#46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "But there are also plenty of businesses with millions of users that only get revenue later in their life." No. No . NO. This is one of the most common stories told in the Valley, but it's also an immense case of confirmation bias. How many companies with millions users had no revenue for a long time and then became immensely successful later on with a viable monetization strategy? Google . Maaaaaybe Facebook, the…

I think you are right. A year after getting $100,000 in seed money, they should have some revenue. Maybe not a lot, probably not profitable, but they should have some sales. Worst case, they should be right on the edge of releasing their product. By year 2, no revenue would be a complete disaster for this program. Having 1 in 6 or 1 in 10 make it would also be a disaster.

Is the goal for Thiel to see a quick return on his investment? Or is it set these people up for a better career in the future? I have always understood it to be the latter.

From what I have interpreted, Thiel believes that just getting out into the world and getting to work will put you as good, if not better standing than someone who went to college with respect to future income and employment opportunities†. That doesn't mean they are going to be millionaires on day one. They still have much to learn, like anyone else. One year later doesn't really tell us anything about the success or failure of his program.

† within reason; you are not going become a doctor without the right credentials and he openly speaks to that.

Re: Peter Thiel's College Dropouts: How's That Working Out?

#47
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed. I think Thiel was probably creating a program with a knowledge of the PR the initiative would generate without much thought to long-term outcomes. Obv. he is a smart guy with plugins to higher-ed, and clearly someone who believes in the positive possibilities of innovation. In that sense, he is someone I would like to collaborate with. That said, he may have shot himself in a foot here in picking people who w…

the ultimate goal is a "Halliburtinization" of the US... You could just as well call it the "Swedenization" of the US, since Sweden has adopted the same model for many govt services considerably more extensively than the US. (E.g., Sweden has privatized about 10% of their school system.) They seem to do alright, but then again they also don't go starting too many wars.

You could call it that, but given that the US track record so far is closer to Halliburton (i.e. the aforementioned Enron case) and not Sweden, it seems more appropriate to refer to what has actually happened rather than what people wish would happen.

Re: Peter Thiel's College Dropouts: How's That Working Out?

#48
post #23

This model does not scale! Few college dropouts are bright up to be selected carefully to go through this process. To do this en mass would be a disaster.

Incorrect, a bunch of students with failed/successful experience is better than a bunch of students who go to college, because they were "suppose" to. I think its best to opt for more freedom, when it comes to picking who they want to spend their adulthood. These new paths aren't for everyone but that's why we should consider this an alternate solution, not a one size fits all one.

>Incorrect, a bunch of students with failed/successful experience is better than a bunch of students who go to college, because they were "suppose" to.

Not all college students attended college because they are "supposed to". Even for those who attend college because they are "supposed to", it is arguable that they will end up being better than choosing not to go to college. If someone has no idea what he wants to do in life, it's arguable that going to college is better than not going to.

The truth is that people like Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Mark Zuckerberg are rare. Most people need a formal education. It's arrogant to think that you can design better alternative than an educational framework that has existed for years to educate the mass.

The Thiel's model works well for a small number of bright youngsters, who might exceed their potentials through a customized training program, instead of going to college to have an off-the-shelf training program. If more and more people drop out of college, or even skip college to do this, it's going to blow up in his face.

Re: Peter Thiel's College Dropouts: How's That Working Out?

#49

I thought these wunderkinds were supposed to change the world. :) No one argues that these are bright people, the problem is I think this "fellowship" was a lot of hype to promote an idea that ... I don't know, where's the fruit? Sure, there are autodidacts, but as I always say, they are outliers. I do find the education focused ones interesting, in "oh boy" sort of way. We're just taking something as dogma (anti-col…

"We're just taking something as dogma (anti-college) and just running with it, where we're going I don't know. There's no "there" there."

You could say the same thing in reverse: it's just opting out of the pro-college dogma.

Colleges have a huge amount of overhead like land, buildings, bureaucracy and enticements like fancy campuses and perks; much of it for students studying soft subjects with a lot of grade inflation. It's all paid for by government incentives and a trillion dollars in student loan debt.

A lot of studies say that college degrees are still worth the cost, but I'd like to know if such studies control for the self-selection of college students. Is it that college puts people on the path toward success or that people on the path toward success tend to choose college? Also, do the various majors independently justify their costs, or are political science majors lumped with engineers?

Today, I'd still probably choose college if I were 18 again (in engineering or one of a few other subjects). But ten years from now, I hope there are better alternatives available (which will make the colleges better, too), and college will just be one option that can survive without government subsidy.

Such a change will also improve the liberal arts and soft subjects at colleges. Right now, such subjects are diluted by a lot of people that just don't know what to do, and think that those subjects are easier and leave more time to party. When those people are no longer encouraged by easy money and enticed by fancy campuses, or fear the stigma of not going to college, then the softer subject classes will be left with serious thinkers.

Re: Peter Thiel's College Dropouts: How's That Working Out?

#50
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Very nice. I only have one question for you - what do you think is more reasonable - or are you reserving your judgement? Pos/Neg/Neutral?

I think the "Pos" side should be discounted as it is obviously Thiel centered PR from an employee. I think the "Neg" side should be the default, since one should not presume value until value is demonstrated. That we are still in a sense "early stage" indicates that we don't have a full picture yet and so shouldn't presume that we do. I have mixed feelings about the program in general. Entrepreneurship programs maybe…

I am not an employee of Thiel. -- Danielle Fong.
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