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Peter Thiel's College Dropouts: How's That Working Out?

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Re: Peter Thiel's College Dropouts: How's That Working Out?

#31

Post by jeffdavis »

Jd wrote: post #17
confluence wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Very nice. I only have one question for you - what do you think is more reasonable - or are you reserving your judgement? Pos/Neg/Neutral?

I think the "Pos" side should be discounted as it is obviously Thiel centered PR from an employee. I think the "Neg" side should be the default, since one should not presume value until value is demonstrated. That we are still in a sense "early stage" indicates that we don't have a full picture yet and so shouldn't presume that we do. I have mixed feelings about the program in general. Entrepreneurship programs maybe…

"Technical innovation comes from depth in a subject area, and you actually have to study something before you can innovate in the context of it."

I think you are making three assumptions that can be disputed:

1. The only place to gain a depth of knowledge is a traditional university; and

2. The best time to gain this depth of knowledge is between the ages of 18 and 22; and

3. You need to innovate to have a successful business (where "innovate" is something more profound than just being creative).

Youth is the time when people are most able to adapt, learn, and change their path in life, so it's no surprise that K-12 and colleges would like a monopoly on the nation's youth.

But entrepreneurship teaches things that colleges stifle, such as independence, following your own path to success on your own schedule, and learning the consequences of your decisions quickly. And there's no law saying you can't study on your own while starting a business, or study later if the business goes south.

We're already in a situation where a bachelor's degree is watered down and doesn't offer any differentiation. Many students feel they need to get a doctorate to differentiate themselves, or in some cases, just to get in the door. In many situations, it's not a question of whether to spend 4 more years in school after highschool, it's whether to spend ten more years. It's no surprise that people simply say that the opportunity cost is too high, and do something else.

Re: Peter Thiel's College Dropouts: How's That Working Out?

#32

Post by potatolicious »

randomdata wrote: post #28
roc wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The whole endeavor is lousy. With regards to 'success', for most people the education you get in college is secondary. What's of primary importance is networking and having that degree on your resume to get you in the door. [1] But networking and having something on your resume that gets you in the door is provided automatically (and arguably in more effective doses) by rubbing elbows with Thiel and likeminded millio…

To be fair, it is not exactly clear if college scales either. Around 25% of the working population have a college degree and about 50% have post-secondary training of some kind. Only 5% of the working population earn more than $90,000 per year and the top 25% start earning at only $45,000 per year or so. It's a livable income in many places, but that is not what we generally consider successful in business.

This disappointment is based on an ancient view of the world - that those with post-secondary educations are abnormally high achievers, and thus one would expect greater than average compensation.

This hasn't been true for at least 3 decades. Post-secondary training of some sort, whether in a skilled trade or a degree program, is critical even if your ambitions do not stray further than "strictly middle class".

Instead of wondering why those with post secondary education aren't rich off their asses, I'm much more concerned about why 50% of the population doesn't have any post-secondary education whatsoever, and how in the hell we expect to keep this population employed and competitive with that foundation.

Re: Peter Thiel's College Dropouts: How's That Working Out?

#33

Post by ruggeri »

I met one the Thiel fellows. His employ? He gives talks about skipping college. It was inane; I don't think I've ever met a more transparent circular argument.

I've also met people who dropped out or never went to school, and did amazing stuff during that time. Nobody paid them to do it, though.

The problem with children is that they haven't been around the block. Giving them money just for being young and eager only further distorts their warped, child's view of reality. Put me down as not a believer.

Re: Peter Thiel's College Dropouts: How's That Working Out?

#34

Post by yummyfajitas »

Jd wrote: post #29
confluence wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> since one should not presume value until value is demonstrated. That we are still in a sense "early stage" indicates that we don't have a full picture yet and so shouldn't presume that we do. Couldn't agree more. Until evidence is confirmed by multiple neutral third parties the negative (random) hypothesis holds precedence until such a time as evidence falsifies it. No presumption - merely rational scepticism there…

Agreed. I think Thiel was probably creating a program with a knowledge of the PR the initiative would generate without much thought to long-term outcomes. Obv. he is a smart guy with plugins to higher-ed, and clearly someone who believes in the positive possibilities of innovation. In that sense, he is someone I would like to collaborate with. That said, he may have shot himself in a foot here in picking people who w…

the ultimate goal is a "Halliburtinization" of the US...

You could just as well call it the "Swedenization" of the US, since Sweden has adopted the same model for many govt services considerably more extensively than the US. (E.g., Sweden has privatized about 10% of their school system.)

They seem to do alright, but then again they also don't go starting too many wars.

Re: Peter Thiel's College Dropouts: How's That Working Out?

#35

Post by randomdata »

potatolicious wrote: post #32
randomdata wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be fair, it is not exactly clear if college scales either. Around 25% of the working population have a college degree and about 50% have post-secondary training of some kind. Only 5% of the working population earn more than $90,000 per year and the top 25% start earning at only $45,000 per year or so. It's a livable income in many places, but that is not what we generally consider successful in business.

This disappointment is based on an ancient view of the world - that those with post-secondary educations are abnormally high achievers, and thus one would expect greater than average compensation. This hasn't been true for at least 3 decades. Post-secondary training of some sort, whether in a skilled trade or a degree program, is critical even if your ambitions do not stray further than "strictly middle class". Inste…

In my case, I simply was not allowed to study in any post-secondary school. I applied to many, but was rejected from them all. Higher education is not accessible to a large number of people.

I have never found it to be limiting to my career though. In fact, I feel I am in a much better position because I was able to use those four+ years more effectively doing my own thing which has made me more marketable than a typical college grad.

Re: Peter Thiel's College Dropouts: How's That Working Out?

#36

Post by potatolicious »

acgourley wrote: post #25
trimbo wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is traction measurable? [edit] What I mean is, we've witnessed startup after startup with millions of users that go bust. The only way I know of to measure "traction" of a _business_ is revenue.

But there are also plenty of businesses with millions of users that only get revenue later in their life. For the first few years, traction besides revenue is certainly acceptable evidence of progress.

> "But there are also plenty of businesses with millions of users that only get revenue later in their life."

No. No. NO. This is one of the most common stories told in the Valley, but it's also an immense case of confirmation bias.

How many companies with millions users had no revenue for a long time and then became immensely successful later on with a viable monetization strategy?

Google. Maaaaaybe Facebook, the jury is still out on that... aaaaaand that's about it.

The overwhelming, typical case for the "no revenue, all traction" business is death, an acquihire if you're lucky. The fact that there exist a few (by a few I mean one or two) huge outliers does not represent 'plenty of businesses', nor does it represent some kind of trend. Traction-first business with no revenue model baked in have always been the longest throws in software business.

So no, traction is absolutely not an acceptable replacement for revenue when representing a business' viability.

Re: Peter Thiel's College Dropouts: How's That Working Out?

#37

Post by 10char »

Very interesting that they didn't mention James Proud's Giglocator exit. Maybe they didn't reach out/he decided not to participate in this article, but if you're going for the revenue angle then it should be noted[1]

There are also two fellows in YC right now and are literally days from launching their startups.

(disclosure: I'm a Thiel Fellow)

[1]: http://www.forbes.com/sites/ryanmac/2012/06/20/skip-school-s...

Re: Peter Thiel's College Dropouts: How's That Working Out?

#38

Post by Aloisius »

The vast majority of startups fail and it wouldn't surprise if the vast majority of these kids failed. As long as their lives haven't been ruined by the experience and they come out as well adjusted people, I say more power to them.

Disclaimer: I dropped out of high school to start a company almost 20 years ago.

Re: Peter Thiel's College Dropouts: How's That Working Out?

#39

Post by randomdata »

dinkumthinkum wrote: post #30

I thought these wunderkinds were supposed to change the world. :) No one argues that these are bright people, the problem is I think this "fellowship" was a lot of hype to promote an idea that ... I don't know, where's the fruit? Sure, there are autodidacts, but as I always say, they are outliers. I do find the education focused ones interesting, in "oh boy" sort of way. We're just taking something as dogma (anti-col…

It has only been one year. College graduate-bound students still have at least three more years to go until they can even consider changing the world. Years five and six will be much more interesting.

The way I see it, these people are not foregoing education. They are just receiving it through other, non-traditional, avenues. That does not mean they can learn faster than anyone else though, so it is no surprise that they are going to take a few years to learn before they can start seeing accomplishments.

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