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Trump's Tariff Formula Makes No Economic Sense. It's Also Based on an Error

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Re: Trump's Tariff Formula Makes No Economic Sense. It's Also Based on an Error

#121

Post by nprateem »

walterbell wrote: post #55

> The formula for the tariffs, originally credited to the Council of Economic Advisers and published by the Office of the United States Trade Representative, does not make economic sense. There is a 2024 paper (40 pages) by Stephen Miran, chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43589350 The root of the economic imbalances lies in persistent dollar overvaluation that prevents th…

This is the most important doc to read. I'm surprised even the FT don't mention it (although commenters do).

Next step is currency devaluation. Think I'm going to sell all my US stocks despite the recent battering as they're likely to fall further.

Re: Trump's Tariff Formula Makes No Economic Sense. It's Also Based on an Error

#122

Post by vkou »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #119
vkou wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Putin wasn't who consolidated power in Russia, Yeltsin did, when he successfully carried out his coup. Russia stopped being a semi-functional democracy in ~1993, even if it wasn't yet clear to anyone living there at the time. Putin just stepped into the nest of ~unlimited executive power that was already made for him.

If you put the end date of Russia's democracy 2 years after its start date, I'm not sure it's right to say it ever had one.

People certainly thought they were still living in one in 1996 and 2000, but there was no golden path out of it. The press was fully compromised, the security apparatus was in the hands of one man, and parliament was an irrelevant sideshow.

But you can't see any of this, when you're on the inside looking out - and you can't be certain of it when you're on the outside looking in.

Re: Trump's Tariff Formula Makes No Economic Sense. It's Also Based on an Error

#123

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

ArtTimeInvestor wrote: post #115
SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm just not sure what people mean when they talk about "consolidating power" as something distinct from convincing people that you should have lots of power. "Russia style" consolidation of power under Putin involved quite a lot of winning hearts and minds. Rather than inducing a recession, for example, Putin doubled the Russian GDP over his first 4 years. I'm not naive about the fact that Trump would like to stay i…

Making people rich and powerful wins their hearts and minds pretty fast. Look up the military leaders of the USA. Secretary of Defense, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Service Chiefs (Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps, Space Force) ... all appointed by Trump.

You've gotten inaccurate information. Only the Secretary of Defense and Navy chief were appointed by Trump, the rest were appointed by Biden. (The incoming chairman will also be a Trump appointee, of course.)

Re: Trump's Tariff Formula Makes No Economic Sense. It's Also Based on an Error

#124

Post by nprateem »

hayst4ck wrote: post #70

Trump is only confusing if you think his policies are meant to benefit America. If you don't believe that, then his policies are terrifyingly not confusing. If you believe his policies are primarily meant to benefit American oligarchs or Russia, his policies are even less confusing. Withdrawing support for Ukraine and not putting tariffs on Russia, despite putting tariffs on uninhabited "Heard Island and McDonald Isl…

No. His policies are all aimed at fighting China.

- He wants to choke them with tariffs (and now has leverage to get the rest of the world to join in).

- They want Greenland to defend the North

- He wants to onshore manufacturing as a strategic wartime capability

Once you understand this, his policies make sense.

And the whole business of putting tariffs on everywhere is so countries can't export from them to evade the tariffs.

So because of this he seems to think effects on markets will be a one time correction that's worth the cost (not to mention is probably shorting it to pieces)

Re: Trump's Tariff Formula Makes No Economic Sense. It's Also Based on an Error

#125

Post by hayst4ck »

nprateem wrote: post #124
hayst4ck wrote: post #70

Trump is only confusing if you think his policies are meant to benefit America. If you don't believe that, then his policies are terrifyingly not confusing. If you believe his policies are primarily meant to benefit American oligarchs or Russia, his policies are even less confusing. Withdrawing support for Ukraine and not putting tariffs on Russia, despite putting tariffs on uninhabited "Heard Island and McDonald Isl…

No. His policies are all aimed at fighting China. - He wants to choke them with tariffs (and now has leverage to get the rest of the world to join in). - They want Greenland to defend the North - He wants to onshore manufacturing as a strategic wartime capability Once you understand this, his policies make sense. And the whole business of putting tariffs on everywhere is so countries can't export from them to evade t…

So why the tariff on Taiwan, and why alienate Canada? Is European support not strategically useful?

Who buys American weaponry to fund American military industry when countries don't trust us?

Why would he create the grounds for civil unrest here, which would make decisive military action much harder?

How can we have leverage when other countries are dealing with an O(1) problem while we are dealing with O(N) harm to our economy?

Why abandon Ukraine, a country in a very similar position to Taiwan?

Why talk about ethnically cleansing Gaza, ceding the human rights high ground?

Re: Trump's Tariff Formula Makes No Economic Sense. It's Also Based on an Error

#126

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

vkou wrote: post #122
SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you put the end date of Russia's democracy 2 years after its start date, I'm not sure it's right to say it ever had one.

People certainly thought they were still living in one in 1996 and 2000, but there was no golden path out of it. The press was fully compromised, the security apparatus was in the hands of one man, and parliament was an irrelevant sideshow. But you can't see any of this, when you're on the inside looking out - and you can't be certain of it when you're on the outside looking in.

You can't be certain of anything, I suppose. I'm not really sure what you're getting at here. Whether or not Trump has secretly ended American democracy, it's still the case that popular leaders have more power than unpopular leaders and criticizing unpopular decisions is a good way to try and stop them.

Re: Trump's Tariff Formula Makes No Economic Sense. It's Also Based on an Error

#127

Post by watwut »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #110
abraxas wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At this point he gives no fucks about what anyone thinks because the plan is to consolidate the oligarchic power to its maximum, russia style. Winning the hearts and minds is not and never was a part of his plan. And the sad thing is that they will probably succeed. I have no idea why you Americans are so naive about someone who staged a putsch to give up power voluntarily now that he's got it. You will be a russia s…

I'm just not sure what people mean when they talk about "consolidating power" as something distinct from convincing people that you should have lots of power. "Russia style" consolidation of power under Putin involved quite a lot of winning hearts and minds. Rather than inducing a recession, for example, Putin doubled the Russian GDP over his first 4 years. I'm not naive about the fact that Trump would like to stay i…

> I'm just not sure what people mean when they talk about "consolidating power" as something distinct from convincing people that you should have lots of power.

When Trump threatens to destroy law companies that sued him and gets submission because he has actual power to do it, that is "consolidating power". It does not matter whether people think he should have that power or not, he has it. And he is using it so that everyone is afraid to oppose him in the future. Or sue him.

When Trump fires prosecutors that prosecute criminal acts by him and his friends, he is consolidating power. When he hires loyalist and uses prosecution against his political opponents, ignoring unfavorable laws and judges, he is consolidating power. Because all of that makes sure that it does not matter what people think, they will shut up and wont oppose.

When Trump changes election laws so that students have it harder to vote, he is consolidating power. People who are likely to vote against him will vote less for practical reasons and their opinions wont matter.

> I'm not naive about the fact that Trump would like to stay in office after 2028 (he doesn't exactly keep it a secret), but the desire doesn't make him any good at it.

All he has to do is to harm those who oppose him, so there are less people opposing him. And to ignore the laws he finds inconvenient, which is something he is already doing.

Re: Trump's Tariff Formula Makes No Economic Sense. It's Also Based on an Error

#128

Post by watwut »

nprateem wrote: post #124
hayst4ck wrote: post #70

Trump is only confusing if you think his policies are meant to benefit America. If you don't believe that, then his policies are terrifyingly not confusing. If you believe his policies are primarily meant to benefit American oligarchs or Russia, his policies are even less confusing. Withdrawing support for Ukraine and not putting tariffs on Russia, despite putting tariffs on uninhabited "Heard Island and McDonald Isl…

No. His policies are all aimed at fighting China. - He wants to choke them with tariffs (and now has leverage to get the rest of the world to join in). - They want Greenland to defend the North - He wants to onshore manufacturing as a strategic wartime capability Once you understand this, his policies make sense. And the whole business of putting tariffs on everywhere is so countries can't export from them to evade t…

None of that makes sense as fighting China. Especially not the Greenland thing. He makes China looks good which is quite a feat.

> He wants to choke them with tariffs (and now has leverage to get the rest of the world to join in).

Like, how? You expect the countries to put tariff on Chine, risk to have tariffs put on them by both China and unpredictable USA? He is loosing leverage here rather then gaining it.

> They want Greenland to defend the North

Right now, Greenland sees America as the biggest threat to protect against. They even refused to talk to Vance on his visit.

> He wants to onshore manufacturing as a strategic wartime capability

That is inconsistent with tariffs on everything. If this was the goal, he would had targeted tariffs to ease manufacturing. It would exclude materials for example. It was NOT be calculated as ratio of trade deficit.

And this is also inconsistent with using tariffs as a leverage in negotiations which was your other point. This would require stability and companies being confident the policy wont change in the next few years. In reality, they dont know what will happen tomorrow.

Re: Trump's Tariff Formula Makes No Economic Sense. It's Also Based on an Error

#129

Post by watwut »

Auracle wrote: post #97
foxglacier wrote: post #80

Can anyone explain the reversal of positions on free trade between left and right since the 2000s? Back then, the biggest bogeyman of leftists was globalization and they would protest against free trade agreements and wanted to boycott imports from poor countries because it was exploiting workers there and taking jobs from poor people in rich countries. At the same time rightists loved free trade because it was good…

Any time one party focuses their attention on one thing, the other will generally greatly oppose it. Republicans weren't the antivaxxers - that was largely hippie type democrats - prior to 2020, and weren't really even until the government mandates, just to give one example. Hell, it isn't even an idea but look what happened to Elon Musk. Liberals loved him until he started publicly sharing some conservative ideas, w…

> Hell, it isn't even an idea but look what happened to Elon Musk. Liberals loved him until he started publicly sharing some conservative ideas, which made them waffle a bit, and now they absolutely loathe him.

I mean, this one is just being reasonable. Liberals were for a person X as long as that person pretended to favor the same policies and ideologies. When that person turn out to be conservative, well actually far right political player, they changed opinion on the person. Both Trump and Musk dabbling in the democratic politics and then being rejected by them is a sign of more consistent politics of that side.

When liberals were antivaxxers, issue was not much political. And democrats and other liberals largely criticized these. Politically, liberal antivaxers were minority that lost the political fight in their own party. They were not putting in anti-vaccers into power.

Re: Trump's Tariff Formula Makes No Economic Sense. It's Also Based on an Error

#130

Post by usrusr »

walkingthisquai wrote: post #3
klooney wrote: post #2

I feel bad for Lesotho- 50% is tough.

Well you've got to get those diamond manufacturing jobs back to the US somehow

Unfortunately, now that some people appear to think that annexations are something to be considered, this joke has a very unexpected element of not funny.
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