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Trump's Tariff Formula Makes No Economic Sense. It's Also Based on an Error
91–100 of 205 posts
Re: Trump's Tariff Formula Makes No Economic Sense. It's Also Based on an Error
#92I believe the idea was "Very High Tarrifs" and the formula was some kid in MS Excel . They are definitely not reciprocal. They don't need to be, since the plan was to use the high tarrifs as negotiating tool to somehow reduce the US national debt
I'd put my chips on the formula being $(LLM_OF_CHOICE), given the lack of attention paid to details like, say, uninhabited islands near the Antarctic.
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2025/04/critics-suspect-...
Re: Trump's Tariff Formula Makes No Economic Sense. It's Also Based on an Error
#93I believe the idea was "Very High Tarrifs" and the formula was some kid in MS Excel . They are definitely not reciprocal. They don't need to be, since the plan was to use the high tarrifs as negotiating tool to somehow reduce the US national debt
i don't think Trump cares about US national debt.
Re: Trump's Tariff Formula Makes No Economic Sense. It's Also Based on an Error
#94Could it be that Trump's main goal is to stay in power? I mean not only for the next 3 years. But beyond. If we look at his actions from this angle, could they make sense?
No? The tariffs aren't popular with anyone, have already produced multiple defections from his own party in Congress, and severely undercut the rationale business and financial leaders had for supporting him in 2024. His co-consul Musk, who normally spares no effort to hype up Trump's decisions, has spent the past few days carefully avoiding even indirect acknowledgement of the tariffs. It's really hard to see how th…
At this point he gives no fucks about what anyone thinks because the plan is to consolidate the oligarchic power to its maximum, russia style. Winning the hearts and minds is not and never was a part of his plan. And the sad thing is that they will probably succeed.
I have no idea why you Americans are so naive about someone who staged a putsch to give up power voluntarily now that he's got it. You will be a russia style full on kleptocracy by the time he's done with you. And then his heirs will lord over you for generations (unless one of them fucks something up). Godspeed.
Re: Trump's Tariff Formula Makes No Economic Sense. It's Also Based on an Error
#95The funny part is that China yesterday imposed a 34% tariff on US imports.
The “reciprocal” formula does not even consider this. China can impose a 1000% tariff and the formula will not move :facepalm:
Re: Trump's Tariff Formula Makes No Economic Sense. It's Also Based on an Error
#96Trump said he is open to negotiation on these tariffs. The factor of four difference is likely intentional padding. This way, he can: 1.) Shock the market into dropping several hundred points on the S&P and Nasdaq indices, thereby making quite a bit of money on the way down and then back up again. and 2.) Lower tariffs in exchange for patronage from countries or specific businesses that want a port opened in this new…
this is a classic way that kings and other authoritarian leaders demand patronage.
A fair few kings also got their heads chopped off due to getting too unpopular with the masses.
I don’t think can attribute the actions of Trump to intelligence or cunning.
Re: Trump's Tariff Formula Makes No Economic Sense. It's Also Based on an Error
#97Can anyone explain the reversal of positions on free trade between left and right since the 2000s? Back then, the biggest bogeyman of leftists was globalization and they would protest against free trade agreements and wanted to boycott imports from poor countries because it was exploiting workers there and taking jobs from poor people in rich countries. At the same time rightists loved free trade because it was good…
Any time one party focuses their attention on one thing, the other will generally greatly oppose it.
Republicans weren't the antivaxxers - that was largely hippie type democrats - prior to 2020, and weren't really even until the government mandates, just to give one example. Hell, it isn't even an idea but look what happened to Elon Musk. Liberals loved him until he started publicly sharing some conservative ideas, which made them waffle a bit, and now they absolutely loathe him.
This is going to sound like peak HN head-up-own-assery, but I've come to realize that 90% of the population has basically no capacity for nuance, at least politically.
Re: Trump's Tariff Formula Makes No Economic Sense. It's Also Based on an Error
#98Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don’t see how tariffs magically create wealth for foreign exporters that translates into higher wages. Let’s say I can buy a $10 shirt from Lesotho with zero tariff. Now a 50% tariff gets imposed. I can either eat the tariff and pay $15, in which case Lesotho still gets their $10, or Lesotho can eat the tariff to keep their exports competitive, in which case Lesotho now makes $5. The part about giving a competitive…
for countries that pay a worker $10 a day, put a tariff on the goods produced by that worker to total $10 for countries that pay a worker $15 dollars a day put a tariff on the goods produced by that work to total $4 therefore someone importing goods produced by one worker in one day from the lower wage country would spend $20 for the goods from the lower wage country but only $19 for the goods for the higher wage cou…
If the shirt costs $10 in labor, and the pre-tariff wholesale price is also $10, how does the manufacturer make a profit? Surely the wholesale price would at least include some markup for profit? So like $10 labor + $3 markup (per employee-day) + $10 tariff ($23) contrasted with $15 labor + $3 markup + $4 tariff ($22), in your scenario.
But now you see that the low wage manufacturer has a third option, $10 labor + $1 markup + 10 tariff ($21), which would maintain their competitive advantage and in this scenario only cut their daily per employee profit by $2, as opposed to the $5 hit they would suffer by raising their employee wages to $15 day from $10.
Re: Trump's Tariff Formula Makes No Economic Sense. It's Also Based on an Error
#99Could it be that Trump's main goal is to stay in power? I mean not only for the next 3 years. But beyond. If we look at his actions from this angle, could they make sense?
No? The tariffs aren't popular with anyone, have already produced multiple defections from his own party in Congress, and severely undercut the rationale business and financial leaders had for supporting him in 2024. His co-consul Musk, who normally spares no effort to hype up Trump's decisions, has spent the past few days carefully avoiding even indirect acknowledgement of the tariffs. It's really hard to see how th…
Are you saying Trump has to be popular to stay in power?
Re: Trump's Tariff Formula Makes No Economic Sense. It's Also Based on an Error
#100Trump is only confusing if you think his policies are meant to benefit America. If you don't believe that, then his policies are terrifyingly not confusing. If you believe his policies are primarily meant to benefit American oligarchs or Russia, his policies are even less confusing. Withdrawing support for Ukraine and not putting tariffs on Russia, despite putting tariffs on uninhabited "Heard Island and McDonald Isl…
I disagree on Russia. If that tariff madness goes on for more than a few months Russia is dead. Russia's economy is already completely unsustainable and on the brink. Brent is currently traded at 66USD and if oil prices fall a bit more and stay there that's it for Russia.
It will be fascinating to see what is going to happen with that purely mercenary army recruited from the poor when the money is worth nothing any more.